MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Threats Remain for BTPs

Price Signal Summary – Bearish Threat Remains for BTPs

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and, in the process, cleared recent highs to confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle that started Dec 22. The break exposes the key resistance and bull trigger at 4180.00, the Dec 13 high. The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend needle points north. The contract has pierced resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the current uptrend and pave the way for gains towards 4230.50, the Feb 1 2022 high.
• EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and in the process confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend - resistance at 1.0929, the Jan 26 high, has been cleared. EURGBP rallied Wednesday and is firmer today. This week’s bull run reinforces a bullish theme and the cross has pierced resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started early December last year. AUDUSD has traded to a fresh trend high, breaching resistance at 0.7142, the Jan 26 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Wednesday, clearing resistance at 1949.20, the Jan 26 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A sharp sell-off on Wednesday in WTI futures has reinforced current bearish conditions. The contract has breached support at $78.45 this week, the Jan 19 low. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and a continuation would signal potential for an extension towards $72.74, the Jan 5 low.
• Bund futures are consolidating but remain bearish. The contract traded lower Monday, extending the recent break of 137.53, Jan 16 low. The move lower threatens a recent bullish theme and the break of 137.53 signals scope for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures are unchanged but remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent trend highs have confirmed a resumption of the short-term bull cycle. The move signals potential for a climb towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31
• RES 3: 1.1121 1.382 proj of the Oct 13 -27 rally from the Jan 6 low
• RES 2: 1.1076 High Apr 1, 2022
• RES 1: 1.1054 1.236 proj of the Oct 13 -27 rally from the Jan 6 low
• PRICE: 1.1021 @ 05:31 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 1.0929 High Jan 26 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.0852 Low Feb 1
• SUP 3: 1.0802 Low Jan 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0767 Low Jan 18

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and in the process confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend - resistance at 1.0929, the Jan 26 high, has been cleared. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and clears the way for a climb towards 1.1054, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. Key short-term support lies at 1.0802, the Jan 31 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.2558 High Jub 9, 2022
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2393 @ 05:40 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 1.2291/64 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2143 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2089 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.2000 Round number support

GBPUSD is trading in a range and remains below its recent highs. The 4-month uptrend is intact - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this reflects bullish market sentiment. Price has recently pierced resistance at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2506, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2264, the Jan 24 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Testing the Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8899 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8893 @ 06:00 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 0.8852 High Jan 25
• SUP 2: 0.8803 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8769 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a reversal trigger

EURGBP rallied Wednesday and is firmer today. This week’s bull run reinforces a bullish theme and the cross has pierced resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started early December last year. This would open 0.8992, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. First key support is at 0.8803, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 134.77 High Jan 6
• RES 3: 133.20 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
• RES 1: 130.42/131.58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
• PRICE: 128.65 @ 06:20 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 128.18/127.23 Intraday low / Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

USDJPY drifted lower Wednesday. The trend outlook remains bearish and the pair continues to trade below the key short-term resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high. Initial resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 130.42. A continuation lower and a break of 127.23, the Jan 16 low and bear trigger, would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, clearance of 131.58 would be a positive development and signal a short-term reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 142.30 High Jan 25
• PRICE: 141.73 @ 06:38 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 140.47/137.92 Low Jan 23 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY is consolidating and holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation. The pattern suggests scope for a break higher near-term. The 50-day EMA, at 141.72, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish condition and expose a key resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 137.39, the Jan 3 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence Extends

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7158 Intraday High
• PRICE: 0.7144 @ 07:23 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 0.6991/6984 20-day EMA / Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: 0.6872 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6865 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6722 Low Jan 6

AUDUSD has traded to a fresh trend high, breaching resistance at 0.7142, the Jan 26 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 0.7172 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6984, the Jan 31 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Have Their Sights On 1.3226

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3472/3521 High Jan 31 / 19 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3284 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 1.3264 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD bearish trend conditions remain intact and the pair has reversed sharply lower from Tuesday's high. A continuation would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521, the Jan 19 high, to signal a reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Bearish Theme Still In Play

• RES 4: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 3: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 139.36 High Jan 25 and key resistance
• RES 1: 137.83 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 137.08 @ 04:57 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 136.38 Low Jan 30
• SUP 2: 136.04 Low Jan 10
• SUP 3: 135.71 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 4: 135.08 Low Jan 4

Bund futures are consolidating but remain bearish. The contract traded lower Monday, extending the recent break of 137.53, Jan 16 low. The move lower threatens a recent bullish theme and the break of 137.53 signals scope for a deeper retracement. This opens 136.04, Jan 10 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at 139.36, the Jan 25 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a base. Initial resistance is at 137.83, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.880 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 118.320 High Jan 25 - a key resistance
• RES 1: 117.778 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.310 @ 05:20 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 117.020 Low Jan 30
• SUP 2: 116.878 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 3: 116.730 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 116.405 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run

Bobl futures are consolidating and trading closer to recent lows. The contract has cleared support at 117.560, the Jan 16 low. The breach threatens a bullish theme and suggests potential for a deeper pullback that has exposed 116.878, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 118.320, the Jan 25 high. For bulls, a break would be a positive development. Initial resistance is at 117.778, the 50-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 106.155 High Jan 18 and bull trigger
• RES 3: 106.025 High Jan 25 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.920 High Jan 30
• RES 1: 105.826 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.715 @ 05:33 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 105.664/640 61.8% of the Jan 2 - 18 bull cycle / Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 105.548 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 18 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 105.480 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger

Schatz futures traded lower Wednesday. The contract has this week breached 105.735, the Jan 16 low. The break lower signals potential for a deeper retracement and this has opened 105.664 (pierced) and 105.548, Fibonacci retracement points. Firm resistance to watch has been defined at 106.025, Jan 25 high. A break would be bullish and expose the bull trigger at 106.155, the Jan 18 high. Initial firm resistance is at 105.920, Monday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 107.06 High Nov 24 and key resistance
• RES 3: 106.23 High Dec 9
• RES 2: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 1: 105.08/106.00 High Jan 31 / Round number resistance
• PRICE: 104.46 @ Close Feb 1
• SUP 1: 103.79 Low Jan 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 103.21/102.78 Low Jan 17 / High Jan 6
• SUP 3: 102.19/101.40 Low Jan 11 / 10
• SUP 4: 99.97 Low Jan 3

Gilt futures are unchanged but remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent trend highs have confirmed a resumption of the short-term bull cycle. The move signals potential for a climb towards 107.06, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance. The first objective is 106.00. Initial firm support has been defined at 103.79, the Jan 17 low. A break would threaten the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 118.57/96 High Jan 25 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
• RES 2: 116.94 High Jan 25 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 115.10 High Jan 27
• PRICE: 113.94 @ Close Feb 1
• SUP 1: 113.46 50.0% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 2: 112.26 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally

A short-term bearish phase remains in play in BTP futures. The contract traded lower Monday and this has resulted in a break of support at 114.46, the Jan 16 low. The breach threatens the bull theme and signals scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on 113.46 and 112.26, Fibonacci retracement points. Firm resistance has been defined at 116.94, the Jan 25 high. A break of this level would reinstate a recent bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4303.20 2.382 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 2: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4219.00 High Feb 1
• PRICE: 4205.00 @ 06:13 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 4114.40/4097.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 3996.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3890.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger

The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend needle points north. The contract has pierced resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the current uptrend and pave the way for gains towards 4230.50, the Feb 1 2022 high. Note that the trend remains overbought. A pullback, if seen, would represent a healthy correction. A break of 4097.00 would signal the start of a short-term bear cycle.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Aug 26, 2022
• RES 3: 4194.25 High Sep 13
• RES 2: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4163.25 High Feb 1
• PRICE: 4145.00 @ 06:44 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 4007.50/3969.70 Low Jan 31 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3901.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 3788.50 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and, in the process, cleared recent highs to confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle that started Dec 22. The break exposes the key resistance and bull trigger at 4180.00, the Dec 13 high. Clearance of this level would confirm resumption of a broader uptrend and open 4250.00, the Aug 26 2022 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 4007.50, the Jan 31 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J3) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $94.80 - High Nov 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $92.64 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $90.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 bear leg
• RES 1: $86.21/89.00 - High Feb 1 / High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $83.22 @ 06:48 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: $82.06 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 5 - 23 rally
• SUP 2: $77.77 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $75.89 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $73.48 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures traded sharply lower Wednesday, reinforcing current bearish conditions. The contract has breached both the 20-day and 50-EMA points. The latest move lower undermines the recent bull theme and a continuation lower would open $82.06, a Fibonacci retracement and potentially expose $77.77, the Jan 5 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at $89.00, the Jan 23 high.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Heading South

• RES 4: $87.00 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 2: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $80.49/82.66 - High Jan 30 / High Jan 18
• PRICE: $76.88 @ 06:53 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: $75.08/72.74 - 76.4% of the Jan 5 - 18 bull leg / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.44 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

A sharp sell-off on Wednesday in WTI futures has reinforced current bearish conditions. The contract has breached support at $78.45 this week, the Jan 19 low. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and a continuation would signal potential for an extension towards $72.74, the Jan 5 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Trend Extension

• RES 4: $2000.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 2: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 1: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• PRICE: $1959.2 @ 07:15 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: $1906.8/1900.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: $1867.2 - Low Jan 11
• SUP 3: $1850.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Wednesday, clearing resistance at 1949.20, the Jan 26 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $1963.0, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at $1906.8, the 20-day EMA and $1900.9, the Jan 31 low. A break of this zone would signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Broader Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $24.127 @ 08:5 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: $23.098 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

Silver is firmer but continues to trade inside a range. The trend direction remains up with moving average studies in a bull mode position. Fresh trend highs in December reinforced the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.