MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish WTI Theme Remains
Price Signal Summary – Bearish WTI Theme Remains
- S&P E-Minis continue to trade below their recent highs. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Price has recently traded through support at the 20-day EMA, at 5837.02, but is - for now - trading above this average once again. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade within the recent range. For now, a bear threat remains present. The contract traded sharply lower on Oct 15 and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4949.55. A clear break of this average would undermine a recent bullish theme.
- The trend needle in EURUSD is pointing south. The recent pause in the trend appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces current trend conditions. 1.0778, the Aug 1 low and a key support, has been pierced. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. Gains confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has breached 153.40, the 61.8% retracement of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading at its latest highs. Price is through 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. The breach reinforces a bullish theme and opens 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key hurdle for bulls.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest climb has resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on $2767.1 next. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Monday’s gap lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70.
- Bund futures traded lower initially yesterday, but have recovered. Despite the bounce, a bearish theme remains intact. The contract has traded through support at 132.58, the Oct 22 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early October. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains present and Monday’s fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced key support at 95.83, the Oct 10 low. A clear break of this support would resume the downtrend that started Sep 17.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Flag
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0956 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0895 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0839 High Oct 25
- PRICE: 1.0811 @ 05:26 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 1.0761 Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 1.0746 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0710 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
The trend needle in EURUSD is pointing south. The recent pause in the trend appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces current trend conditions. 1.0778, the Aug 1 low and a key support, has been pierced. A clear break would strengthen the downtrend and open 1.0746, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend. Initial firm resistance is 1.0895 the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: BearishTrend Condition
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.3001/3067 High Oct 28 / 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2963 @ 05:45 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 1.2908 Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 1.2890 Low Aug 18
- SUP 3: 1.2846 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2799 Low Aug 15
A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The move down last week resulted in a breach of 1.2959, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg. An extension lower would open 1.2890, the Aug 18 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3067, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to signal a reversal.
EURGBP TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8349/8434 20-day EMA / High Oct 3 and reversal trigger
- PRICE: 0.8339 @ 06:02 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 0.8295 Low Oct 18
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The trend condition for now, is bearish and a resumption of weakness would open 0.8276, a Fibonacci projection. Note that price activity on Oct 18 continues to highlight a possible early reversal signal and if correct, a key short-term base. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8349, the 20-day EMA. Key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.8434, the Oct 3 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 153.88 High Oct 28
- PRICE: 152.94 @ 06:31 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 151.46 Low Oct 25
- SUP 2: 149.64/148.30 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4
- SUP 4: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. Gains confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has breached 153.40, the 61.8% retracement of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. The move higher sets the scene for an extension towards 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 148.30, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at 149.64.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 166.07/53 High Oct 28 / High Jul 31
- PRICE: 165.45 @ 06:45 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 163.01 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Last week’s rally confirmed a breach of two important resistance points; 163.49, the Sep 27 high and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. The move highlights a potential stronger reversal. 164.92, 50.0% of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg, has also been cleared. This opens 166.53, the Jul 31 high. Initial firm support to watch is 161.85, the Oct 17 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 2: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 1: 0.6697/6718 20- and 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6568 @ 07:31 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 0.6561 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to weaken. Fresh cycle lows reinforce the current condition. A key support at 0.6622, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. This has strengthened a bearish theme and note too that the pair has also pierced 0.6576, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. A clear breach of this price point would open 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6718, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS:Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 1.4101 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3946 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3908 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3886 @ 07:56 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 1.3813/3758 Low Oct 24 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3684 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading at its latest highs. Price is through 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. The breach reinforces a bullish theme and opens 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3758, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 135.24 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 134.63 High Oct 4
- RES 2: 134.25 High Oct 16 / 18 and key resistance
- RES 1: 133.54 High Oct 24
- PRICE: 133.11 @ 05:06 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 132.37 Low Oct 28
- SUP 2 132.12 0.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 131.66 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 130.80 1.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures traded lower initially yesterday, but have recovered. Despite the bounce, a bearish theme remains intact. The contract has traded through support at 132.58, the Oct 22 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early October and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 132.12, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial key resistance has been defined at 133.54, the Oct 24 high.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 119.875 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 119.635 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 119.330/119.620 High Oct 24 / 18 and key resistance points
- PRICE: 119.110 @ 05:25 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 118.620 Low Oct 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
Recent gains in Bobl futures are considered corrective. The latest pullback from the Oct 18 high highlights a continued bearish threat and key support at 118.620, the Oct 10 low, remains exposed. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Oct 1 and open 118.580, the Sep 3 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.330, the Oct 24 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 107.225 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 107.157 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 / 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- PRICE: 106.930 @ 05:26 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 106.750/680 Low Oct 28 / 11
- SUP 2: 106.580 Low Oct 10 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106.440 High Sep 6 (cont)
The recent recovery in Schatz futures appears corrective. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 106.899. This has resulted in a print above 107.047, 61.8% of the Oct 1 / 10 bear leg. A resumption of gains would open 107.157, the 76.4% retracement point. For bears, the latest move down is a positive development. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 106.580, the Oct 10 low and the key support.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Support Has Been Breached
- RES 4: 98.53 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 98.10 High Oct 18 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 97.11 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 96.51 High Oct 28
- PRICE: 95.87 @ Close Oct 28
- SUP 1: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 94.61 1.50 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 94.23 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains present and Monday’s fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions. The contract has pierced key support at 95.83, the Oct 10 low. A clear break of this support would resume the downtrend that started Sep 17. Sights are on 95.47, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 98.10, the Oct 18 high. Initial firm resistance is at 97.11, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 121.53/122.62 High Oct 25 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.13 @ Close Oct 28
- SUP 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11 and key support
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
The sharp sell-off on Oct 21 in BTP futures continues to highlight a possible reversal of the recent Oct 11 - 18 recovery. It also signals a potential bearish trend threat and exposes the key support at 119.97, the Oct 11 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the recent uptrend and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance is at 122.62, the Oct 1 high. A breach of this level is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Resistance Stays Intact
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5008.00/5106.00 High Oct 21 / High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 4993.00 @ 05:39 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 4914.00 Low Oct 16
- SUP 2: 4884.06 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4815.50 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade within the recent range. For now, a bear threat remains present. The contract traded sharply lower on Oct 15 and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4949.55. A clear break of this average would undermine a recent bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 4884.06, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 5106.00, the Sep 30 high.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Trend Signals Remain Bullish
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5876.75 @ 14:44 GMT Oct 28
- SUP 1: 5801.00/5757.80 Low Oct 23 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5724.00 Low Oct 2
- SUP 3: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 13
S&P E-Minis continue to trade below their recent highs. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Price has recently traded through support at the 20-day EMA, at 5837.02, but is - for now - trading above this average once again. A clear bearish break of the EMA would open 5757.807, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on 5961.00, a Fibonacci projection.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $81.16/47 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.54 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $71.32 @ 06:55 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: $71.18 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
A bearish tone in Brent futures remains intact and Monday’s gap lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would expose support at $69.91, the Oct 1 low, and $68.29, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher is required to instead refocus attention on the key resistance at $81.16, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.54, the Oct 24 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.34 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $67.45 @ 07:13 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: $66.92 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Monday’s gap lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume to the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $72.34, the Oct 24 high.
GOLD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2785.3 - 3.382 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2767.1 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2758.5 - High Oct 23
- PRICE: $2754.6 @ 07:16 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26
- SUP 2: $2686.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2638.2 - Low Oct 15
- SUP 4: $2612.8 - 50-day EMA
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest climb has resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on $2767.1 next, a Fibonacci projection point, ahead of the $2800.0 handle. Firm support is $2686.2, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
SILVER TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $36.050 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 2: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: $34.903 - High Oct 23
- PRICE: $33.903 @ 08:06 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: $32.963 - High Oct 4
- SUP 2: $32.537/31.282 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: $29.858- Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the Oct 18 rally plus last week’s initial extension, reinforce the current trend set-up and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Short-term weakness is considered corrective. Scope is seen for a climb towards $35.167, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend for now. Initial firm support lies at $32.537, the 20-day EMA.