MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bull Cycle for Eurostoxx 50 Remains Intact

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Bull Cycle for Eurostoxx 50 Remains Intact

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and this week’s extension reinforces this set-up. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and attention is on resistance at 5039.84, 61.8% of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. It was pierced Friday, a clear break of it would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started Jun 14.
• GBPUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A bullish theme remains intact. Last week’s break of resistance at 1.2740, the Jun 19 high, strengthened a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 1.2860, the Jun 12 high. The trend direction in USDJPY remains up and the latest move down is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. The recent breach of 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is trading just below its latest high. A key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, has been cleared. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. 
• Gold traded higher last week and the yellow metal has pierced resistance at $2387.8, the Jun 7 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and a clear break would be a bullish development and open the key resistance at $2450.1, the May 20 high. A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been cleared.
• A bear threat in Bund futures remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28. Gilt futures traded higher last week and has started this week’s session on a bullish note. Despite the latest gains, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off from Jun 21, signals scope for a continuation near-term and a resumption of weakness would open 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs          

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Jan 21  
• RES 3: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.0852 High Jun 12 
• RES 1: 1.0845 High Jul 08
• PRICE: 1.0829 @ 05:32 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 1.0769/10 20-day EMA / Low Jul 2   
• SUP 2: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 4: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support 

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains in play and price continues to trade  closer to its recent highs. The breach last week of the 50-day EMA, undermines the recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for an extension with the focus on 1.0852 next, the Jun 12 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the key support at 1.0666, Jun 26 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0769, the 20-day EMA. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance        

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2846/2860 High Jul 08 / High Jun 12 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.2808 @ 05:47 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 1.2716/2686 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
• SUP 3: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 4: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle    

GBPUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A bullish theme remains intact. Last week’s break of resistance at 1.2740, the Jun 19 high, strengthened a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and the next important resistance. A break would resume the uptrend that started Apr 22. Key support lies at 1.2613, the Jun 27 low. First support is at 1.2716, the 20-day EMA.   

EURGBP TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact                        

• RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
• RES 2: 0.8551 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8496/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1  
• PRICE: 0.8455 @ 06:02 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 0.8431 Low Jun 25    
• SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing 

EURGBP continues to trade below its recent high on Jul 1. A key resistance at 0.8496, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. Clearance of this EMA is required to undermine the current bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger reversal. Gains since Jun 14 appear to be a correction. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low. A break of this support would open 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and the bear trigger.   

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 164.18 2.0% 10-dma envelope      
• RES 3: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 161.95 High Jul 3
• PRICE: 160.71 @ 16:37 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 159.74 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 157.86 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low  
• SUP 3: 157.63 /154.55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4 
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16

The trend direction in USDJPY remains up and the latest move down is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. The recent breach of 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 162.21, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 159.74.  

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 176.59 2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• RES 3: 175.40 1.50 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 174.77 1.382 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing  
• RES 1: 174.63 High Jul 08
• PRICE: 174.29 @ 06:50 BST Jul 09
• SUP 1: 173.09 Low Jul 2 / 1 
• SUP 2: 172.02 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 169.77/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14 
• SUP 4: 167.33 Low May 16 

The EURJPY trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross is trading at its recent highs. The recent break of a key resistance and bull trigger at 171.56, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies also highlight a clear rising trend - they remain in a bull-mode set-up. Sights are on 174.77, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at 172.02, the 20-day EMA.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish      

• RES 4: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 0.6839 High Jan 02                 
• RES 2:  0.6771 High Jan 03
• RES 1: 0.6761 High Jul 08
• PRICE: 0.6742 @ 07:32 BST Jul 09
• SUP 1: 0.6675 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6639 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8

AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair is trading just below its latest high. A key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, has been cleared. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. A continuation higher would open 0.6771 next, the Jan 3 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6639, the 50-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present                 

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
• RES 1: 1.3672 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3634 @ 07:59 BST Jul 9 
• SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

A short-term bearish threat in USDCAD remains in place. The pair has recently breached the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3672, reinforcing a bearish condition and exposing 1.3590, the May 16 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. A break of this level would be bullish. Note that the medium-term trend signal remains bullish - for now. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bear Threat Still Present                                     

• RES 4: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 132.80 High Jun 25 
• RES 2: 132.24 High Jun 28  
• RES 1: 131.59 50-day EMA                    
• PRICE: 131.20 @ 05:10 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 130.28/23 76.4% of May 31 - Jun 14 rally / Low Jul 3           
• SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 129.00 Round number support 

A bear threat in Bund futures remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is at 132.24, the Jun 28 high. A break would highlight a reversal.  

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bearish Theme Remains Intact                                         

• RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger    
• RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24     
• RES 3: 116.690 High Jun 28   
• RES 1: 116.207 20-day EMA            
• PRICE: 116.090 @ 05:22 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 115.530 Low Jul 5     
• SUP 2: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally    
• SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support 

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the contract is trading closer to its latest lows. The move down last week resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermines a recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a pullback towards 115.556 (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.            

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bear-Mode Condition                            

• RES 4: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger   
• RES 2: 105.895 High Jun 21       
• RES 1: 105.580/105.780 20-day EMA / High Jun 28 
• PRICE: 105.515 @ 05:35 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 105.390 Low Jul 5       
• SUP 2: 105.375 Low Jun 13 
• SUP 3: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 105.175 Low Jun 7   

Schatz futures remain in a bear-mode condition following last week’s breach of support around the 20-day EMA, at 105.580. The move down signals scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 105.314, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a developing bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 105.780, the Jun 28 high. A break would be bullish.                     

GILT TECHS: (U4) Watching Resistance                                   

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 98.92/99.25 High Jun 25 / 1.236 proj May 29-Jun 4-10 swing
• RES 1: 98.27 High Jul 8 
• PRICE: 98.18 @ Close Jul 8 
• SUP 1: 97.32/96.57 Low Jul 4 / 1      
• SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run      
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support   

Gilt futures traded higher last week and has started this week’s session on a bullish note. Despite the latest gains, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off from Jun 21, signals scope for a continuation near-term and a resumption of weakness would open 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 98.24, the Jun 28 high. It has been pierced, a clear of this level would be seen as a bullish development.  

BTP TECHS: (U4) Monitoring Resistance 

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 116.96/117.09 High Jul 8 / High Jun 21
• PRICE: 116.92 @ Close Jul 8
• SUP 1: 115.76 Low Jul 4   
• SUP 2: 114.72/35 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 11 and key support
• SUP 3: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing

BTP futures have recovered from 114.72, the Jul 2 low. Despite these latest gains, attention is on the bear reversal from the Jun 5 high that resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low. This highlight a resumption of the downtrend and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up. Sights are on 114.35, the Jun 11 low. Key resistance is 117.62, the Jun 5 high. Clearance of it would be bullish. Initial firm resistance to watch is 117.09, Jun 21 high.                       

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Still In Play     

• RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6       
• RES 2: 5082.32 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off
• RES 1: 5067.00 High Jul 8   
• PRICE: 5006.00 @ 06:09 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 4903.00/4860.00 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support   
• SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing    

A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and attention is on resistance at 5039.84, 61.8% of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. It was pierced Friday, a clear break of it would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started Jun 14. This would open 5082.32, the 76.4% retracement point. On the downside, a reversal would instead refocus attention on 4846.00, Apr 19 low and a key support.     

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Heading North  

• RES 4: 5713.31 3.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 5700.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 5668.00 3.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5640.00 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 5636.50 @ 07:18 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 5526.86/5427.77 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support 
• SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and this week’s extension reinforces this set-up. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5668.00, a Fibonacci projection. Support is at 5526.86, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) Pullback Considered Corrective              

• RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing 
• RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $87.95 - High Jul 5    
• PRICE: $85.82 @ 07:01 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $83.68 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4  
• SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support  

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. Fresh gains last week maintain the current bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows, signalling scope for an extension towards $89.32, the Apr 12 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would be seen as an important medium-term bullish development. Initial firm support to watch is $83.68, the 50-day EMA.   

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Bullish Theme                   

• RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $85.27 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $84.52 - High Jul 5   
• PRICE: $82.36 @ 07:12 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $79.63 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support 

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been cleared. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. Sights are on $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $79.63, the 50-day EMA.        

GOLD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed      

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2393.0 - High Jul 5               
• PRICE: $2364.2 @ 07:17 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $2326.3/2286.9 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7       
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28  
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold traded higher last week and the yellow metal has pierced resistance at $2387.8, the Jun 7 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and a clear break would be a bullish development and open the key resistance at $2450.1, the May 20 high. Initial support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 2326.3. A clear break of this average would instead confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and expose $2277.4, May 3 low.    

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact For Now                   

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing        
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger               
• PRICE: $31.017 @ 08:10 BST Jul 9 
• SUP 1: $28.573- Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger               
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13  
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver has recovered from its recent lows and the metal is trading closer to last week’s high. The break of $30.853, the Jun 21 high, is a bullish development and undermines a recent bearish theme. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the key resistance and bull trigger at $32.518, the May 20 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger, lies at $28.573, the Jun 26 low.