MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bull Cycle In Oil Threatened Following Latest Reversal

Price Signal Summary - Reversal In Oil This Week Threatens The Recent Bull Theme

• In the equity space, the S&P E-Minis broader trend direction remains down and attention is on the bear trigger at 3571.75, the Oct 3 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 3558.97, 1.382 projection of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing. The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend direction remains down too and a continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 3236.00, the Oct 3 low. For bulls, a break above the 50-day EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal. The average intersects at 3481.50.
• In FX, EURUSD remains in a bear cycle inside the channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The focus is on 0.9645, 76.4% of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull cycle and further out, 0.9536, the Sep 28 low and key support. Resistance is at 0.9815, the 20-day EMA. GBPUSD maintains a softer tone but has managed to find some support - for now. At this stage, the recent move lower appears to be a correction of the rally between Sep 26 - Oct 5. A continuation lower would open 1.0922 and 1.0787, 50.0% and 61.8% of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 bull cycle. Initial resistance is at 1.1204, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY maintains a bullish tone and the pair is holding on to this week’s gains. Yesterday’s break of 145.90, the Sep 22 high, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Attention is on 147.25 next, the 3.00 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing.
• On the commodity front, the recent strong reversal in Gold signals the end of the recovery between Sep 28 - Oct 4 and note that price has moved below the trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high. A continuation lower would expose the key support at $1615.0, the Sep 28 low. In the Oil space, the reversal in WTI futures this week threatens the recent bullish theme. The contract has traded below the 50-day EMA and attention is on the 20-day EMA at $86.25. A continuation lower would open $89.94 and $82.89 - the 50.0% and 61.8% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally.
• In the FI space, the broader bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact. The focus is on 135.52, the Sep 28 low and key support. This level was probed yesterday, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 135.00 handle. Gilt futures remain bearish following the reversal from last week’s high. The focus is on 90.99, Sep 28 low and bear trigger. This level has been pierced, a clear break would open the psychological 90.00 handle. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0051 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 0.9945/9999 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Oct 4
• RES 1: 0.9815 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.9703 @ 06:02 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 0.9645 76.4% retracement of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.9501 1.382 projection of the Aug 10 - Sep 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9407 Bear channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD is consolidating. The pair remains in a bear cycle inside its bear channel. Last week’s reversal from 0.9999 marked a failure at the top of the channel and with moving average tools pointing south, indications are that price is likely to depreciate further near-term. The focus is on 0.9536, the Sep 28 low. 0.9999 is the key resistance. Note that the channel top is just below 0.9999, at 0.9945 and this level also represents a key hurdle for bulls.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Is At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1738 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1590 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 1.1474/95 50-day EMA / High Oct 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1204 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1087 @ 06:07 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 1.0922 50.0% retracement of Sep 26 - Oct 5 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.0787 61.8% retracement of Sep 26 - Oct 5 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.0541/0350 Low Sep 28 / All Time Low
• SUP 4: 1.0203 3.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing

GBPUSD remains in a short-term bear mode position but did manage to find support Wednesday. At this stage, the recent move lower still appears to be a correction of the rally between Sep 26 - Oct 5. A continuation lower would open 1.0922 and 1.0787, Fibonacci retracement levels. Key support and the primary bear trigger is still far-off at 1.0350, the Sep 26 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.1495. Initial resistance is 1.1204, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Attention Is On The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.9292 High Sep 11 2020
• RES 3: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 0.8751 @ 06:20 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 0.8678/49 50-day EMA / Low Oct 4 and a key support zone
• SUP 2: 0.8626 Low Sep 1
• SUP 3: 0.8559 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30

EURGBP faced stiff resistance Wednesday and reversed Tuesday’s gains. The cross remains above the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 0.8678 and is a key support. This level, together with 0.8649, the Oct 4 low, defines an important short-term support zone where a break is required to reinstate recent bearish price action. On the upside, resistance is at 0.8867, the Oct 12 high. A break would resume the recent recovery.

USDJPY TECHS: Clears The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 148.42 1.382 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 147.66 High Aug 1998 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 147.25 3.00 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 1: 146.97 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 146.86 @ 06:35 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 145.17/144.33 / Low Oct 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 3: 141.49 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 140.36 Low Sep 22, and key support

USDJPY maintains a bullish tone and the pair traded higher Wednesday. This resulted in a break of resistance at 145.90, the Sep 22 high. The breach confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and marks an extension of the broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention turns to 147.25 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, firm trend support lies at 144.33, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 147.76 1.236 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 145.64 High Sep 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 144.48 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 143.46/144.09 High Oct 6 / 5
• PRICE: 142.51 @ 06:45 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 140.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 139.44/137.40 Low Sep 29 / 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 136.02 Low Aug 25
• SUP 4: 135.52 Low Aug 24

EURJPY found support Wednesday and the cross has managed to remain above the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 140.70 and marks a key support. Moving average studies continue to highlight a broader uptrend and a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on 144.09, the Oct 5 high. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would instead highlight a bearish threat.

AUDUSD TECHS: Downtrend Extends

• RES 4: 0.6664 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6547 High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6397/6489 High Oct 10 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6278 @ 06:49 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 0.6236 Low Oct 12
• SUP 2: 0.6200 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD traded lower once again Wednesday and a bearish theme remains intact. The pair has this week cleared support at 0.6363, the Sep 28 low and bear trigger. The breach confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This opens the 0.6200 handle next as the downtrend extends. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6547, the Oct 4 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3970 3.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3896 3.00 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3855 High Oct 11
• PRICE: 1.3826 @ 06:56 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 1.3676 Low Oct 7
• SUP 2: 1.3589/03 20-day EMA / Low Oct 4
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Sep 21
• SUP 4: 1.3337 50-day EMA

USDCAD remains in an uptrend. The latest recovery from 1.3503, Oct 10 high, reinforces bullish conditions and this low represents a key short-term support. Moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend and bullish market sentiment. 1.3838, the Sep 30 high and key resistance has been pierced. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend and open 1.3896, a Fibonacci projection.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Pierces The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 144.56 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 143.68 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.87 High Oct 4
• RES 1: 139.53 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 136.21 @ 05:20 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 135.14 Low Oct 12
• SUP 2: 135.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 134.76 4.382 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 134.24 4.50 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures maintain a softer tone and the contract traded lower Wednesday, piercing 135.52, the Sep 28 low. The reversal from 142.87, Oct 4 high marked the end of the corrective bounce higher between Sep 28 - Oct 4. This reinforces the broader bearish theme and moving average studies remain in a bear mode position. A clear break of 135.52, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Key resistance is at 142.87.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 121.950 High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 120.131 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 119.170 @ 05:48 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 118.610 Low Oct 11
• SUP 2: 118.020 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.918 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a bearish mode and the contract is trading closer to its most recent lows. The reversal from 121.950, the Oct 4 high confirmed the end of the corrective cycle between Sep 28 and Oct 4. The focus is on the key support and bear trigger at 118.020, the Sep 28 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. On the upside, 121.950 marks key resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Attention Is On The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 108.010 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 107.770 High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 107.236 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.045 @ 06:02 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 106.775 Low Oct 11
• SUP 2: 106.535 Low Sep 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 106.379 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.800 Low Nov 2008 (cont)

Schatz futures are consolidating. The primary trend direction remains down and the recent corrective bounce appears to be over. The reversal from 107.770, Oct 4 high signals a resumption of the broader downtrend and attention is on key support and bear trigger at 106.535, Sep 26 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at 107.770, where a break would highlight a stronger reversal.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Key Support Pierced

• RES 4: 105.34 High Sep 22
• RES 3: 102.45 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 100.92 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 95.79/97.98 High Oct 7 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 91.97 @ Close Oct 12
• SUP 1: 90.99/90.38 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger / Low Oct 12
• SUP 2: 90.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 88.94 2.764 proj of the May 12 - Jun 16 - Aug 2 swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 86.30 3.00 proj of the May 12 - Jun 16 - Aug 2 swing (cont)

Gilt futures yesterday pierced 90.99, the Sep 28 low. The recent reversal from 100.92, Oct 4 high means the 20-day EMA capped gains last week and this average remains a key short-term resistance. The EMA intersects at 97.98. This week’s extension reinforces bearish conditions. A clear break of 90.99 would open 90.00. On the upside, 97.98 to 100.92, is the key resistance zone.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.51 High Sep 13
• RES 2: 117.05 High Sep 22
• RES 1: 113.07/116.71 20-day EMA / High Oct 4
• PRICE: 109.43 @ Close Oct 12
• SUP 1: 108.85 Low Oct 11
• SUP 2: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support
• SUP 3: 107.27 2.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.68 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing

The BTP futures trend condition remains bearish and this week’s extension reinforces this condition. The reversal from 116.71, the Oct 4 high, signals the end of the corrective cycle between Sep 28 - Oct 4. A continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 108.13, the Sep 28 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. 116.71 marks the key resistance.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 116-11 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 115-13+ Low Sep 7
• RES 2: 114-31+ 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 1: 112-30/30 20-day EMA / High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 111-13 @ 19:07 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: 110-19 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110-00 Psychological Support
• SUP 3: 109-23+ Low Nov 30 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 108.27+ 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries are consolidating but the outlook remains bearish and gains are considered corrective. The reversal last week from 113-30, Oct 4 high, marked the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 correction. MA studies are in a bear mode position and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at 110-19, Sep 28 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. Price needs to break above 113-30 to reinstate a short-term bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 3678.00 High Sep 13 and bull trigger
• RES 3: 3525.20 Trendline resistance drawn from the Aug 17 high
• RES 2: 3481.50/92.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 6
• RES 1: 3404.00 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3317.00 @ 06:26 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 3305.00 Low Oct 11
• SUP 2: 3236.00/3229.00 Low Oct 3 / Low Nov 9 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3163.00 Low Nov 6 2020
• SUP 4: 3143.20 1.382 proj of the Aug 17 - Sep 5 - 13 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain below last week's high of 3492.00 on Oct 6. The 50-day EMA, at 3481.50, remains intact and continues to provide resistance. The broader trend direction is down and a continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 3236.00, the Oct 3 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. For bulls, a move above the 50-day EMA is required to highlight a stronger reversal.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Key Support And Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3874.45 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3743.85/3820.00 20-day EMA / High Oct 5
• PRICE: 3596.00 @ 06:43 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 3571.75 Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3558.97 1.382 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 3506.38 1.50 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis are consolidating. The contract remains below last week’s high of 3820.00 on Oct 5. This level marks a key resistance, where a break is required to reinstate a short-term bullish theme. The broader trend remains down and attention is on the bear trigger at 3571.75, the Oct 3 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and open 3558.97, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $107.41 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 6 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $104.62 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.39 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $96.46/98.75 - High Oct 11 / 10 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $92.56 @ 07:04 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: $90.59 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 2: $88.67 - 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $85.00/82.44 - Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $81.97 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 5 - 30 price swing

Brent futures traded lower yesterday. The short-term outlook has deteriorated and continued weakness this week highlights a developing bearish threat. Price has traded below the 50-day EMA and pierced the 20-day EMA, at $91.68. A continuation lower would expose $90.59 and $88.67, two Fibonacci retracement levels. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $98.75, Oct 10 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

WTI TECHS: (X2) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $104.31 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $98.95 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $96.82 - High Aug 31
• RES 1: $91.35/93.64 - High Aug 11 / 10 and key resistance
• PRICE: $87.14 @ 07:51 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: $86.25 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $84.94 - 50.0% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $82.89 - 61.8% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 4: $79.14/76.25 - Low Sep 30 / 26 and the bear trigger

The reversal in WTI futures this week threatens the recent bullish theme. The contract has traded below the 50-day EMA and attention is on the 20-day EMA at $86.25. A continuation lower would open $89.94 and $82.89 - the 50.0% and 61.8% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally. On the upside, key resistance is at $93.64, Oct 10 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: $1765.5 - High Aug 25
• RES 3: $1745.6 - High Sep 29
• RES 2: $1735.1 - High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $1699.9/1729.5 - High Oct 10 / 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1669.2 @ 07:16 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: $1659.7 - Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

Gold maintains a softer tone. The recent recovery stalled at $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. The strong reversal signals the end of the climb between Sep 28 - Oct 4 and note that price has moved below the trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high. A continuation lower would expose the key support and bear trigger at $1615.0, the Sep 28 low. On the upside, a break of $1729.5 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Reversal Extends

• RES 4: $22.253 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - Sep 1 bear cycle
• RES 3: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.187/21.242 - High Oct 10 / 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: $18.982 @ 07:22 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: $18.868 - Low Oct 12
• SUP 2: $17.967/562 - Low Sep 28 / Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

Silver found resistance last week at $21.242 on Oct 4. The subsequent reversal has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. This suggests potential for a continuation lower and the metal traded lower again yesterday. The clear break of $19.052, the Oct 3 low, has exposed $17.967, the Sep 28 low. Key resistance is at $21.242, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme and a stronger reversal.