MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish EURUSD Wave Sticks
Price Signal Summary – Bullish EURUSD Wave Sticks
- A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and a sharp sell-off this week reinforces a short-term downtrend. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low again, Thursday, marking an extension of the current bear leg. The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish with price trading closer to its recent trend highs. Key short-term support has been defined at 5373.00, the Mar 4 low.
- A bullish impulsive wave in EURUSD has resulted in strong gains this week, marking a continuation of the reversal that started Feb 3. The pair is holding on to its gains. Moving average studies have crossed and are in a bull-mode position. A strong rally in EURGBP from its recent lows highlights a short-term reversal. The cross has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The impulsive rally this week signals scope for an extension towards 0.8419. AUDUSD has traded higher this week. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A stronger recovery would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high.
- The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low.
- Bund futures remain in a bear-mode condition. The contract again traded lower, Thursday, marking an extension of the bearish impulsive wave, but has also recovered from this week’s low. The move down signals scope for an extension towards 126.56 next. Gilt futures remain in a clear mode-mode condition. The contract has this week traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 2024
- RES 1: 1.0853 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 11.0810@ 06:07 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 1.0602/1.0529 Low Mar 5 / High Feb 26
- SUP 2: 1.0473 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
A bullish impulsive wave in EURUSD has resulted in strong gains this week, marking a continuation of the reversal that started Feb 3. The pair is holding on to its gains. Moving average studies have crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Sights are on 1.0937, the Nov 5 / 6 2024 high. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0473, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2990 High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 1.2924 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.2890 @ 06:23 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 1.2768 Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: 1.2648 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2580 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
The trend in GBPUSD remains bullish and this week’s rally reinforces this theme. Moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a stronger bull cycle. The pair has tested 1.2924, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. A clear break of this level would open 1.2990, the Nov 8 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2580, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8462 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 0.8419 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8411 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.8393 @ 06:32 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 0.8360/8324 Low Mar 6 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A strong rally in EURGBP from its recent lows highlights a short-term reversal. The cross has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The impulsive rally this week signals scope for an extension towards 0.8419, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8326, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 152.39 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 149.33/50.65 High Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 147.45 @ 06:51 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 147.32 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 3: 146.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 145.92 Low Oct 4 ‘24
The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point south. Thursday’s resumption of the downtrend paves the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. Key short-term resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.
EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Resistance
- RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 2: 161.80 High Jan 30
- RES 1: 161.28 High Mar6
- PRICE: 159.62 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 158.36 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 155.60 Low Mar 4
- SUP 3: 154.80 Low Feb 28 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
This week’s strong rally in EURJPY undermines a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a potential reversal. The cross traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on Thursday and pierced resistance at 161.19, the Feb 13 high, before pulling back. A clear break of 161.19 would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 158.36, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 154.80, the Feb 28 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6364 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.6309@ 07:35 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 0.6297/6187 Intraday low / Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
AUDUSD has traded higher this week. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A stronger recovery would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below Tuesday's 0.6187 low is required to reinstate a bear threat and open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4450/4543 High Mar 5 / 4
- PRICE: 1.4304 @ 07:55 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The USDCAD correction / bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA. at 1.4301. A deeper retracement would expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 3. On the upside, a breach of 1.4543, the Mar 4 high, would be bullish.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Gains Would Allow An Oversold Condition To Unwind
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14
- RES 1: 128.18 Intraday high
- PRICE: 128.10 @ 05:48 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 126.64 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 126.56 2.500 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support
Bund futures remain in a bear-mode condition. The contract again traded lower, Thursday, marking an extension of the bearish impulsive wave, but has also recovered from this week’s low. The move down signals scope for an extension towards 126.56 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is now within range. The contract is oversold, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Intact But Is Oversold
- RES 4: 118.310 Low Mar 3
- RES 3: 118.090 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 117.850 Low Feb 20
- RES 1: 117.316 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- PRICE: 117.020 @ 06:04 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 116.250 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
Bobl futures have traded sharply lower this week and price action is likely to remain volatile near-term. A key short-term support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has been cleared. The subsequent impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards the 116.000 handle. The contract is in oversold territory. Gains would be considered corrective and a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 106.735 Low Feb 19
- RES 1: 106.678 38.2% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 sell-off
- PRICE: 106.640 @ 06:12 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 106.405 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
Schatz futures remain in a bear-mode condition following the latest steep impulsive sell-off. The contract has breached a key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The current bear cycle is in oversold territory and a correction would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is 106.735, the Feb 19 low.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Downtrend Remains Intact But Is Oversold
- RES 4: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 3: 92.41 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 92.08 High Mar 6
- RES 1: 91.93 Intraday high
- PRICE: 91.83 @ 08:00 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 90.71 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
Gilt futures remain in a clear mode-mode condition. The contract has this week traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 92.41, the Mar 5 high.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 116.75 Low Mar 5
- PRICE: 116.30 @ 07:10 Mar 7
- SUP 1: 115.83 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition following this week’s steep sell-off. The move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at Wednesday’s 118.56 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5480.00 @ 06:23 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 5442.91/5373.00 20-day EMA / Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 5328.00 Low Feb 106
- SUP 3: 5299.82 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish with price trading closer to its recent trend highs. Key short-term support has been defined at 5373.00, the Mar 4 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA at 5299.82. For bulls, a continuation higher would open the 5600.00 handle next.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Leg Extends
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
- RES 2: 6002.65 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5884.00/5924.0 High Mar 4 / Low Feb 25
- PRICE: 5750.25 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 5720.00 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24
- SUP 4: 5584.85 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and a sharp sell-off this week reinforces a short-term downtrend. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low again, Thursday, marking an extension of the current bear leg. This reinforces a stronger reversal and a double top pattern on the daily scale. The focus is on 5698.25, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6002.65, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Maintains A Bearish Tone
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $73.98 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $69.55 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Brent futures remain in a clear downtrend and this week’s bearish price action reinforces current conditions. The sharp sell-off has resulted in a breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a break of the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $73.98, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Trading At Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $73.33 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $70.68 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $68.36 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $66.62 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: $65.22 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $58.01 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 - 11 price swing
The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.68, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s seat
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2970.6 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2930.1/2956.2 - High Feb 26 / 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2914.1 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: $2890.1/2832.7 - 20-day EMA / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $2823.3 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2820.3. The 50-day average marks a key support.
SILVER TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.765/33.397 - High Mar 5 / High Feb 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.553 @ 08:11 GMT Mar 6
- SUP 1: $31.526/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Recent weakness in Silver appears to have been a correction and this week’s strong gains reinforce this theme. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch lies at $31.526, the 50-day EMA, and $30.815, the Feb 28 low.