MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Bounce Meets Resistance

Price Signal Summary – Bund Bounce Meets Resistance

• S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone and Friday’s resumption of the short-term uptrend reinforces current conditions. Last week’s climb resulted in a break of the 3820.00 hurdle, Oct 5 high. Furthermore, price has traded above the 50-day EMA, at 3834.42. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer tone. The contract is holding on to its recent gains following the recent breach of trendline resistance drawn from the Aug 17 high and the break of the 50-day EMA.
• EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish despite the pullback late last week. The recent key technical development was the break of the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The short-term outlook in USDJPY remains bearish. Last week’s print below support at 145.56, the Oct 24 low, signals scope for an extension of a short-term bearish corrective cycle. Momentum studies are trending down, allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. AUDUSD remains bullish following the recent reversal from 0.6170, the Oct 13 low. Attention is on 0.6547, the Oct 4 high and the 50-day EMA, a key short-term hurdle that intersects at 0.6545.
• Gold traded lower Friday. A downtrend remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high. The move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. The WTI futures outlook improved for bulls last week. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low. Note that resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high, has been breached.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and extension from the Oct 21 low of 134.02. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme following last week’s extension higher. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher last week resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Following Bear Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0094 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 0.9947 @ 05:49 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 0.9925 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.9839 Former channel resistance-now-support
• SUP 3: 0.9807 Low Oct 24
• SUP 4: 0.9705 Low Oct 21

EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish despite the pullback late last week. The recent key technical development was the break of the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel breakout highlights a stronger reversal and note that the pair has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The focus is on 1.0198 next, the Sep 12 high. The support to watch is 0.9839, the former bear channel resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.1834 76.4% Fib retracement for the Aug - Sep downleg
• RES 3: 1.1799 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1738/41 High Sep 13 / 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1645 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 1.1596 @ 06:12 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 1.1442 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1234 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key support

GBPUSD short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Last week’s breach of key resistance at 1.1495 has strengthened the bullish condition. The move higher marks an extension of the reversal from 1.0350, Sep 26 low and this has confirmed a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on 1.1738, the Sep 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.1442, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8781/8867 High Oct 21 / 12
• RES 1: 0.8700 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8576 @ 06:28 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 0.8559 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24

EURGBP has traded lower today as the cross starts the week on a softer note. A bearish theme remains intact and the print below support at 0.8579, the Oct 17 low, reinforces current bearish conditions. Attention is on 0.8559 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 0.8522, the Aug 30 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 0.8781, the Oct 21 high, where a breach would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play Despite The Latest Bounce

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 148.41/149.71 High Oct 26 / 24
• PRICE: 147.84 @ 06:35 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 145.11 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 144.03 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

The short-term outlook in USDJPY remains bearish. Last week’s print below support at 145.56, the Oct 24 low, signals scope for an extension of a short-term bearish corrective cycle. Momentum studies are trending down, allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The focus is on the 50-day EMA at 144.03 - a key support. Key resistance is at the trend high of 151.95 (Oct 21). Initial firm resistance is at 149.71, the Oct 24 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Primary Trend Direction Is Up

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 147.72 High Oct 26
• PRICE: 146.99 @ 06:44 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 145.08 / 143.80 20-day EMA / Low Oct 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 142.89 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: 140.90 Low Oct 10

EURJPY continues to trade below the Oct 21 high 148.40. The trend condition is bullish. A key support lies at 143.80, the Oct 24 low, where a break is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on 148.40. This is a bull trigger and a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 149.46, a Fibonacci retracement. MA studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop. Initial support to watch is 145.08, 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6600 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6545/47 50-day EMA / High Oct 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6409 @ 07:23 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 0.6373/6303 Oct 26 low / Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD remains bullish following the recent reversal from 0.6170, the Oct 13 low. Attention is on 0.6547, the Oct 4 high and the 50-day EMA, a key short-term hurdle that intersects at 0.6545. A break of these two chart points would strengthen current bullish conditions. Note that gains are still considered corrective and the broader trend direction is down. Initial support to watch lies at 0.6373, the Oct 26 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above The Next Key Support Zone

• RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3748 High Oct 25
• PRICE: 1.3631 @ 08:00 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 1.3467 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Sep 21
• SUP 4: 1.3227 Low Sep 20

USDCAD maintains a bearish tone following the reversal from 1.3977, Oct 13 high. Support at 1.3503, the Oct 4 high, has been pierced and this has exposed the 50-day EMA at 1.3467. Clearance of these two chart points (a key support zone) would signal scope for a deeper pullback. The broader trend direction is up and the pullback is considered corrective. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3855, Oct 21 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 143.26 High Sep 19
• RES 3: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 2: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 140.93 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.94 @ 05:08 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 137.57 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 136.46/134.02 Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 132.89 Low Oct 28 2011

Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and extension from the Oct 21 low of 134.02. Short-term gains are considered corrective. However, with the bullish cycle in play and following the break of 138.52, Oct 14 high, scope is seen for a continuation higher. The focus is on the 50-day EMA, at 140.93 - a key resistance. A reversal lower and a break of 137.57, Thursday’s low, would instead signal the end of the corrective cycle.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Short-Term Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 123.160 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 121.950 High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 121.010/330 High Oct 28 / 5
• PRICE: 119.700 @ 05:12 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 119.090 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 118.430 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures maintain a short-term bullish tone and a bullish corrective cycle remains in play, despite Friday’s pullback. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and key short-term resistance at 119.960, the Oct 14 high. Clearance of this latter level strengthens bullish conditions and opens 121.330, the Oct 5 high, ahead of 121.950, the Oct 4 high and a bull trigger. Initial support is seen at 119.090, the Oct 27 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Focus Despite Friday’s Pullback

• RES 4: 108.010 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 107.400 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 106.915 @ 05:26 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 106.710 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 106.680/350 Low Oct 24 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

The Schatz futures primary trend direction is down, however, the contract remains in a bullish corrective cycle for now, following last week’s move higher and despite Friday's pullback. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA and cleared resistance at 107.180, the Oct 13 high. A continuation higher would open the next key resistance, at 107.770, Oct 4 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 106.710, the Oct 27 low.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 105.34 High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 104.39 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 103.31 @ Close Oct 29
• SUP 1: 100.38 Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 99.33/98.15 20-day EMA / Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures maintain a bullish theme following last week’s extension higher. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher last week resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and opens 105.34 next, the Sep 23 high. Key support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low. A break would be bearish.

FIXED INCOME

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Pulls Back From Thursday’s High

• RES 4: 113-09+ 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 112-22+ High Oct 6
• RES 2: 112-00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 111-31 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 111-08+ @ 15:40 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 110-16 Low Oct 26
• SUP 2: 109-20/108-26+ Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 107.04 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries traded higher Thursday, extending recent gains. Despite the latest bull cycle, the primary trend remains down. MA studies are in a bear mode position and a broader price sequence of lower lows and lower highs is intact. The contract edged lower Friday and a stronger resumption of weakness would signal the end of the recent correction and refocus attention on 108-26+, the Oct 21 low. Initial resistance is at 111-31, Thursday’s high.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8
• RES 1: 117.93 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 116.29 @ Close Oct 28
• SUP 1: 115.08/112.97 Low Oct 28 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 110.14 Low Oct 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures traded sharply higher last Thursday as the recovery from 108.82, Oct 21 low, extends. The contract has cleared resistance at 112.25, the Oct 14 high and 116.71, the Oct 4 high. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term and attention is on resistance at 119.06, the Sep 8 high. On the downside, key support lies at 108.82, Oct 21 low and 108.13, the Sep 28 trend low. Initial support lies at 112.97, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Northbound

• RES 4: 3810.00 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 2: 3678.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3643.00 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 3625.00 @ 05:47 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 3493.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone

EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer tone. The contract is holding on to its recent gains following the recent breach of trendline resistance drawn from the Aug 17 high and the break of the 50-day EMA. Scope is seen for an extension higher near-term and sights are on 3678.00, the Sep 13 high and a key short-term resistance. Firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 3493.20.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Resumes Its Current Uptrend

• RES 4: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 3924.25 High Oct 28
• PRICE: 3901.75 @ 06:48 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: 3757.50/3641.50 Low Oct 27 / 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone and Friday’s resumption of the short-term uptrend reinforces current conditions. Last week’s climb resulted in a break of the 3820.00 hurdle, Oct 5 high. Furthermore, price has traded above the 50-day EMA, at 3834.42. Sights are on 3981.25 next, the Sep 14 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 3641.50, the Oct 21 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 3757.50, the Oct 27 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $107.41 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 6 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $104.62 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.39 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $97.27/98.75 - High Oct 27 / 10 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $94.80 @ 06:54 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: $93.26/88.77 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $86.29 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $85.00/82.44 - Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $81.97 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 5 - 30 price swing

Brent futures traded higher last week but have pulled back from the high of $97.27 (Oct 27). A bullish theme remains intact. Key short-term support has been defined at $88.77, Oct 18 low, where a break is required to cancel the positive outlook. The contract has breached resistance at $95.17, Oct 12 high and this signals scope for a climb towards $98.75, the Oct 10 high and a key resistance. A break of $98.75 would further strengthen conditions for bulls.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Conditions

• RES 4: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $92.34 - High Oct 12 / 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: $89.79 - High Oct 27
• PRICE: $87.04 @ 07:05 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: $85.84/81.30 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $79.63 - 76.4% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger

The WTI futures outlook improved for bulls last week. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low. Note that resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high, has been breached. The break of this hurdle signals scope for gains towards $92.34, the Oct 10 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a move through support at $81.30 is required to undermine the current bull theme.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1714.8 - High Oct 7
• RES 2: $1686.5 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1674.9 - High Oct 26
• PRICE: $1642.3 @ 07:10 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: $1638.1/1615.0 - Low Oct 28 / Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 3: $1600.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

Gold traded lower Friday. A downtrend remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high. The move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $1615.0, Sep 28 low. On the upside, the next firm resistance is at $1686.5, the 50-day EMA. A break of the average would signal scope for a stronger correction.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.242 - High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $20.499 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - 14 downleg
• RES 1: $20.039 - 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - 14 downleg
• PRICE: $19.031 @ 08:03 BST Oct 31
• SUP 1: $18.791/17.967 - Low Oct 25 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish. The recent move below the 50-day EMA reinforced bearish conditions. This signals scope for a continuation of the reversal that started Oct 4 and the focus is on the next firm support at $17.967, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would open $17.562, the Sep 1 low and the bear trigger. Resistance is seen at $20.039, a Fibonacci retracement.