MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Downtrend Persists

Price Signal Summary – Bund Downtrend Persists

• S&P E-Minis trend conditions are bearish despite the recovery from Thursday’s session low. Price remains below the 50-day EMA, at 4018.89 and sights are set on 3901.75, the Jan 19 low and 3887.62, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain above last 4175.00, the Feb 24 low. Key support to watch is 4202.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low - the line was pierced yesterday.
• AUDUSD’s February downtrend remains intact with price trading closer to its recent lows. The recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag - reinforcing the downtrend. The recent breach of both the 200-dma and 100-dma, reinforced bearish conditions. The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and while the pair is consolidating, it is also holding on to its recent gains. Price has pierced 136.67, 38.2% of the downleg between Oct 21 and Jan 16. A clear breach of this hurdle would set the scene for a climb towards 138.17, the Dec 15 high. GBPUSD trend conditions are bearish and resistance has so far this week remained intact. A break of 1.1915, the Feb 17 low would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and price is trading just ahead of the 50-day EMA, at $1846.0. The bearish break of the 50-day EMA, in mid-February, strengthened the case for bears. WTI futures remain above the Feb 22 low of $73.80. The contract has continued to appreciate this week and yesterday breached resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $77.92. A continuation of gains would signal scope for a test of resistance at $80.78, the Feb 13 high.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the contract traded lower Thursday. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of the 132.60 key support, the Jan 2 low. Gilt futures remain above Tuesday’s intraday low of 99.20. Despite the recent bounce, trend conditions remain bearish and this week’s lows reinforce current conditions. The move down confirms a resumption of the trend and note that the 100.00 handle has been cleared.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.0915 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - 27 downleg.
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.0724/27 38.2% of the Feb 2 - 27 downleg / 50-dma
• RES 1: 1.0659/91 50-day EMA / High Mar 1
• PRICE: 1.0612 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.0533 Low Feb 27 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0410 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD resistance is at 1.0659, the 50-day EMA. The average was pierced Wednesday, however, a clear break is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would expose resistance at 1.0803, Feb 14 high and a key short-term level. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective. Support to watch is 1.0533, Monday’s low. A break would resume the bear cycle.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2244 61.8% retracement of the Jan 23 - Feb 17 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2182 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 1.2147 High Feb 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2067 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1966 @ 05:59 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.1915 Low Feb 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1785 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.1764 Low Nov 17

GBPUSD trend conditions are bearish and resistance has so far this week remained intact. A break of 1.1915, the Feb 17 low would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. Clearance of this important price point would highlight a broader reversal threat and a potential double top pattern on the daily chart. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.2147, Feb 21 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8929 High Feb 17
• RES 1: 0.8879/97 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high / High Mar 01
• PRICE: 0.8863 @ 06:14 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 0.8817 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8755 Low Feb 28 and key support and 100-dma
• SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP is holding on to this week’s gains. The cross remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and has tested resistance at 0.8879, a trendline drawn from the early February highs. A continuation higher would highlight a potential reversal and expose 0.8929, Feb 17 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position. On the downside, a break of 0.8755, the Feb 28 low is required to reinstate the recent downleg.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 139.59 61.8% retracement of the Oct 21 and Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 137.66 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 137.09 High Mar 02
• PRICE: 136.43 @ 06:51 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 135.26 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 133.73 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.55 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 131.52 Low Feb 14

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and while the pair is consolidating, it is also holding on to its recent gains. Price has pierced 136.67, 38.2% of the downleg between Oct 21 and Jan 16. A clear breach of this hurdle would set the scene for a climb towards 138.17, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, the support to watch lies at 133.73, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a possible reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
• PRICE: 144.87 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 143.18 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 142.15 Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 141.52 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 140.14 Low Feb 13

EURJPY trend conditions are unchanged and the outlook remains bullish. Fresh gains this week maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The cross has recently cleared 144.19, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg. The break opens 145.80, the 76.4% retracement and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at 142.15, Feb 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Flag Formation

• RES 4: 0.6989 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6857 Former trendline support drawn from Oct 13 2022 low
• RES 1: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 0.6757 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 0.6695 Low Mar 01
• SUP 2: 0.6664 50% retracement Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6629 Low Dec 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6585 Low Nov 21

AUDUSD’s February downtrend remains intact with price trading closer to its recent lows. The recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag - reinforcing the downtrend. The recent breach of both the 200-dma and 100-dma, reinforced bearish conditions and note too that the pair has cleared a trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 2022 low. The focus is on 0.6629, the Dec 20 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is at 0.6857.

USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 34
• RES 3: 1.3795 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3665 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 1.3508 @ 07:57 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 1.3476 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.3358 Low Feb 16

USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat for now and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective, Sights are on the key near-term resistance at 1.3705, Dec 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and clear the way for a test of the 1.3800 handle. The support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA. It intersects at 1.3476 and a clear break would be seen as a short-term bearish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 135.30 High Feb 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 134.55 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 133.61 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 132.99 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 131.68 @ 05:04 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 131.31 Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 131.16 2.00 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number resistance
• SUP 4: 130.13 2.236 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the contract traded lower Thursday. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of the 132.60 key support, the Jan 2 low. The clear breach confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and note that the 132.00 handle has also been cleared. The focus is on 131.16, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 134.55, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Fresh Cycle Lows

• RES 4: 116.320 High Feb 24
• RES 3: 116.042 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 115.520 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 115.220 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 114.580 @ 05:02 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 114.360 Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 114.239 2.382 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 114.020 2.50 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.000 Round number support

Bobl futures traded lower Thursday to hit another fresh YTD low. This week’s break lower confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position and this reflects market sentiment. Sights are on 114.239, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.042, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 105.385 High Feb 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 105.299 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 105.090 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 105.005 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 104.760 @ 05:38 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 104.725 Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 104.707 2.50 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.585 3.00 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.492 Lower 3.0% Bollinger Band

Schatz futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract is trading just above its recent lows. The move down this week maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The 105.000 handle has been breached and this paves the way for a move towards 104.707 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 105.299, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 103.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 102.20 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 101.92 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 100.69/100.98 High Mar 1 / 27
• PRICE: 99.64 @ Close Mar 2
• SUP 1: 99.20 Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 99.17 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 3: 98.94 1.50 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 98.70 1.618 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing

Gilt futures remain above Tuesday’s intraday low of 99.20. Despite the recent bounce, trend conditions remain bearish and this week’s lows reinforce current conditions. The move down confirms a resumption of the trend and note that the 100.00 handle has been cleared. A continuation lower would open 99.17, the 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing. On the upside, resistance is seen at 100.98, the Feb 27 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 116.11 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 115.30 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 113.95 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• RES 1: 112.12/113.17 High Mar 2 / High Feb 28
• PRICE: 111.40 @ Close Mar 2
• SUP 1: 111.02 Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 3: 110.65 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 109.29 Low Jan 3

BTP futures traded to a fresh short-term trend low yesterday of 111.02. The outlook remains bearish and the next downside levels to watch cross at 110.77, a Fibonacci retracement point and 110.65, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope and 110.65. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 114.14, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to signal a potential base and would highlight a possible reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4446.00 3.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rally from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4323.00 High Feb 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4264 .00 @ 05:53 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 4202.50 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 2: 4175.00/4138.90 Low Feb 24 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain above last 4175.00, the Feb 24 low. Key support to watch is 4202.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low - the line was pierced yesterday. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact and a resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at 4323.00, Feb 16 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. On the downside, a breach of the channel base alters the picture.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 4168.50 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 4096.00 High Feb 17
• RES 2: 4033.48 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 4018.89 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3977.00 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 3925.00/3901.75 Low Mar 2 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 3787.62 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 3819.00 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 3788.50 Low Dec 22 and a key support

S&P E-Minis trend conditions are bearish despite the recovery from Thursday’s session low. Price remains below the 50-day EMA, at 4018.89 and sights are set on 3901.75, the Jan 19 low and 3887.62, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle. Resistance to watch is at both the 50-day EMA and 4033.48, the 20-day EMA. Note that a clear break of both these EMAs would signal a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $86.55 - High Feb 13
• RES 2: $85.83 - High Feb 16
• RES 1: $85.10 - High Feb 17
• PRICE: $84.56 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: $82.61 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: $80.25/78.84 - Low Feb 23 / 6
• SUP 3: $77.76 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: $76.04 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger

Brent futures traded higher again Thursday and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has moved above resistance at the 50-day EMA this week - the average intersects at 83.72. A continuation higher would open $86.55, the Feb 13 high. Key short-term support has been defined at $80.25, the Feb 23 low. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme and this would open $78.84, the Feb 6 low.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $80.78 - High Feb 13
• RES 1: $79.76 - High Feb 16
• PRICE: $77.98 @ 07:03 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: $75.55 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: $73.80 - Low Feb 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $72.64 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 4: $70.86 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger

WTI futures remain above the Feb 22 low of $73.80. The contract has continued to appreciate this week and yesterday breached resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $77.92. A continuation of gains would signal scope for a test of resistance at $80.78, the Feb 13 high. On the downside, a breach of support at $73.80 is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $1890.2 - High Feb 9
• RES 2: $1870.5 - High Feb 14
• RES 1: $1846.0 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1843.0 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: $1792.9 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and price is trading just ahead of the 50-day EMA, at $1846.0. The bearish break of the 50-day EMA, in mid-February, strengthened the case for bears. Sights are on $1800.0 and $1787.3, the 50.0% retracement of the uptrend between Sep 28 2022 and Feb 2. On the upside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would ease bearish pressure and signal scope for a strong short-term bounce.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $23.606 - High Feb 3
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.233 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $21.672 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.060 @ 08:02 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: $20.265 - 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg

Silver remains in a downtrend and gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower exposes $20.265 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a test and break of the $20.00 handle. Initial resistance to watch is at $21.672, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at $22.233. The area between these two averages marks a key resistance zone where a break is required to signal a trend reversal.