MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Rolling Off Recent Highs

Price Signal Summary – Bunds Rolling Off Recent Highs

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis failed to hold onto yesterday's high of 4740.50 and the reversal lower highlights a bearish candle formation - a shooting star. Today's extension reinforces the bearish nature of the candle pattern and exposes support at 4625.25, the Nov 10 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures started the week on a softer note as the contract pulled away from recent highs. The S/T move lower is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind.
• In FX, EURUSD remains vulnerable and continues to trend lower. The recent weakness cements the downtrend and price is trading below the base of the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. Recent GBPUSD gains continue to be viewed as a short-term correction and the pullback from last week's highs reinforces a bearish theme. The recent breach of 1.3412, Sep 29 low strengthened the case for bears and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. USDJPY remains in an uptrend and today's gains have confirmed a resumption - the pair has cleared last week's high of 114.99 on Nov 17. The break higher also negates a recent bearish engulfing candle and this too reinforces bullish conditions.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable. The yellow metal sold off sharply yesterday as it pulled further away from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. A bearish risk in WTI futures remains present. The contract last week cleared $77.23, Nov 4 low. The break signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback as the recent overbought condition continues to unwind.
• In the FI space, Bund futures have pulled back from recent highs. The outlook remains bullish following last week's rally that confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Friday's breach of 171.95 - the 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off puts near-term momentum in favour of bulls. The near-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the recent pullback between Nov 9 - 17 is considered corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trending Lower

• RES 4: 1.1755 High Sep 22
• RES 3: 1.1620/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 2: 1.1514 Low Nov 5
• RES 1: 1.1374/1451 High Nov 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1233 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 1.1222 1.618 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1185 Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 uptrend

EURUSD remains vulnerable and continues to trend lower. The recent weakness cements the downtrend and price is trading below the base of the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. The next objective is 1.1222, a Fibonacci projection ahead of 1.1185, the Jul 1 2020 low. Initial resistance is at 1.1374, Nov 18 high with the 20-day EMA at 1.1451. A break above 1.1374 is required to ease bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 1.3621 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3520/3607 20-day EMA / High Nov 9 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3384 @ 05:58 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 1.3353 Low Nov 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3334 1.00 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3304 Low Dec 22, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing

Recent GBPUSD gains continue to be viewed as a short-term correction and the pullback from last week's highs reinforces a bearish theme. The recent breach of 1.3412, Sep 29 low strengthened the case for bears and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on 1.3334 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is unchanged at 1.3607, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Still Weak

• RES 4: 0.8595/98 High Nov 5 / 76.4% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.8538/74 High Nov 15 / High Nov 11
• RES 2: 0.8500 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8463/69- Nov 3 low / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8393 @ 06:04 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 0.8381 Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8282/77 Low Feb 18, 2020 / Low Dec 13, 2019

EURGBP remains bearish and continues to trade near recent lows. Last week's sharp sell-off, together with the recent break below support at 0.8403, Oct 26 low signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 0.8356 next, Feb 26, 2020 low. Note that the cross is approaching the base - at 0.8300/8280 - of a broad multi-year range and this area represents a major support. Initial resistance is seen at 0.8463.

USDJPY TECHS: Clears Last Week's Highs

• RES 4: 117.53 High Jan 9, 2017
• RES 3: 116.87 High Jan 11, 2017
• RES 2: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 1: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• PRICE: 115.10 @ 06:20 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 113.59 Low Nov 19 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 112.93/73 50-day EMA / Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 111.51 Low Oct 8

USDJPY remains in an uptrend and today's gains have confirmed a resumption of the uptrend - the pair has cleared last week's high of 114.99 on Nov 17. The break higher also negates a recent bearish engulfing candle and this too reinforces bullish conditions. The focus is on 115.51, the Mar 10, 2017 high next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined 113.59, Nov 19 low. A break is required to signal a possible short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Exposed

• RES 4: 132.56 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 131.59 High Nov 5
• RES 2: 130.59 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.99/130.12 High Nov 19 / High Nov 16
• PRICE: 129.30 @ 06:25 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 127.98/93 Low Nov 19 / Low Sep 22 and a key support
• SUP 2: 127.28 1.00 proj of the Jun 1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 127.04 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 126.65 Low Feb 10

EURJPY remains above last week's 127.98 low. Recent weakness resulted in a print below 128.33, Oct 6 low where a clear break would leave key support at 127.93 exposed, Sep 22 low. A breach of this latter level would confirm an important technical break and open 127.28, a Fibonacci projection level. Friday's intraday high of 129.99 marks initial resistance. A break is needed to ease bearish pressure.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Channel Base Cleared

• RES 4: 0.7534/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 2: 0.7371 High Nov 15
• RES 1: 0.7293 High Nov 18
• PRICE: 0.7219 @ 06:34 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 0.7192 Low Oct 1
• SUP 2: 0.7170 Low Sep 29
• SUP 3: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and a major support
• SUP 4: 0.7049 Low Nov 4, 2020

AUDUSD remains soft. The pair has traded below the base of its bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The breach of this area of support at 0.7259 reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for a deeper short-term pullback. The move lower has opened 0.7170, Sep 29 low where a break would expose 0.7106 further out, Aug 20 low. Resistance to watch is at 0.7371, Nov 15 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Continues To Climb

• RES 4: 1.2896 High Sep 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2849 High Sep 21
• RES 2: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 1.2739 High Oct 1
• PRICE: 1.2713 @ 06:48 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 1.2585/2493 Low Nov 19 / 16
• SUP 2: 1.2387 Low Nov 1o
• SUP 3: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2253 Low Jun 23

USDCAD continues to strengthen as the pair retraces the Sep - Oct sell-off. Price is approaching; the October high of 1.2739 and 1.2753, 76.4% of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off and 1.2775, Sep 29 high. Clearance of these levels would set the scene for a climb towards 1.2896, the Sep 20 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at 1.2493, the Nov 16 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 173.54 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 172.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 1: 172.57 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 171.51 @ 05:02 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 171.44 High Nov 9 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 3: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

Bund futures have pulled back from recent highs. The outlook remains bullish following last week's rally that confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Friday's breach of 171.95 - the 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off puts near-term momentum in favour of bulls, opening potential for gains toward 172.95, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, firm support to watch is unchanged at 170.06. Initial support is at 171.44.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 136.14 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 135.690 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 135.300 @ 04:54 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 134.947 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 134.700/320 Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)

Bobl futures remain in an uptrend and the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The contract last week traded through resistance at 135.320, Nov 15 high. This confirms a resumption of the short-term uptrend and opens 135.870 next, Sep 3 high. The break higher also signals scope for a climb towards 136.00 and beyond further out. Key short-term support lies at 134.700, Nov 11 low. The 50-day EMA at 134.947 marks first support.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Northbound

• RES 4: 112.656 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Jun 2020 sell-off
• RES 3: 112.585 High Mar 17 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.505 High Nov 4 2020 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 112.495 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 112.410 @ 04:37 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 112.292/248 20- and 50-day EMAs
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

Schatz futures traded higher yesterday before finding resistance. The outlook remains bullish following last week's gains. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend and has paved the way for gains towards 112.505 next, Nov 4 2020 high (cont). Note that the break of 112.415 resulted in a 100.0% retracement of the Aug -Sep sell-off, reinforcing the bullish theme. Initial firm support lies at 112.248, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10 and 14
• RES 3: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 127.29 High Nov 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 126.29 @ Close Nov 22
• SUP 1: 125.40 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

The near-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the recent pullback between Nov 9 - 17 is considered corrective. A double bottom reversal confirmed on Oct 27 and a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows that has been established, highlights the current bullish condition. A resumption of strength would refocus attention on 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 125.40, the Nov 17 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 153.12 High Nov 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 151.95 @ Close Nov 22
• SUP 1: 150.72 Low Nov 12 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 149.89 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 148.14 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures remain above recent lows and the short-term outlook remains bullish despite yesterday's pullback from session highs. Gains since Nov 1 have confirmed a short-term bull cycle and the recent breach of 152.54, Oct 14 high strengthens this short-term condition. The breach opens 153.59 next, Sep 24 high. Initial firm support is seen at 150.72, Nov 12 low where a break would undermine the positive theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 4498.00 High Dec 27, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 1: 4409.50 High Nov 18
• PRICE: 4313.00 @ 05:46 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 4280.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 4231.60/4223.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 6
• SUP 3: 4119.00 Low Oct 18
• SUP 4: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures started the week on a softer note as the contract pulled away from recent highs. The S/T move lower is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support at 4314.50, the 20-day EMA, is being challenged. A break would signal potential for a deeper decline and open the 50-day EMA at 4231.60. The bull trigger is the recent 4409.50 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Shooting Star Reversal

• RES 4: 4842.75 2.00 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4740.50/46.68 High Nov 22 / 1.618 of Jul 19-Aug 16-19 swing
• PRICE: 4664.75 @ 07:26 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: 4625.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 4551.59/4543.75 50-day EMA / Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4472.00 High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis failed to hold onto yesterday's high of 4740.50 and the reversal lower highlights a bearish candle formation - a shooting star. Today's extension reinforces the bearish nature of the candle pattern and exposes support at 4625.25, the Nov 10 low. A break of this support would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA at 4551.59. On the upside, clearance of 4740.50 would reinstate a bullish theme.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Correction Lower Extends

• RES 4: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $80.20/83.14 - Low Nov 4 / High Nov 16
• PRICE: $79.06 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: $77.58 - Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: $77.19 - 38.2% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 3: $75.80 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $74.70 - High Sep 15

The Brent futures short-term outlook remains bearish. The contract recently cleared a key short-term support at $80.20, Nov 4 low. This signals scope for a deeper pullback as the recent overbought condition unwinds. Potential is seen for weakness towards $77.19, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $83.14, Nov 16 high where a break is required to ease the developing bearish theme.

WTI TECHS: (F2) Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $84.50 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $83.30/83.83 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $77.23/80.68 - Low Nov 4 / High Nov 16
• PRICE: $75.91 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: $74.76 - Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: $74.25 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $72.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $70.81 - Low Sep 23

A bearish risk in WTI futures remains present. The contract last week cleared $77.23, Nov 4 low. The break signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback as the recent overbought condition continues to unwind. Potential is seen for weakness towards $74.25 next, Oct 7 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $80.68, Nov 16 high where a break is required to ease the developing bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Testing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 3: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $1877.2/81.2 High Nov 16 / Bull channel top
• RES 1: $1849.1 - High Nov 22
• PRICE: $1804 1 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: $1802.4 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1785.1 - Low Nov 5
• SUP 3: $1759.0 - Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Bull Channel base drawn from the Aug 9 low

Gold remains vulnerable. The yellow metal sold off sharply yesterday as it pulled further away from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. Price has moved back below the 20-day EMA and attention is on the 50-day EMA at $1805.9. A clear breach of this EMA would suggest scope for a deeper pullback towards $1785.1, Nov 5 low and possibly the base of a bull channel at $1754.6. The channel is drawn off the Aug 9 low. Initial resistance is at $1849.1.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $26.778 - High Jul 6
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.406 - High Nov 16
• PRICE: $24.028 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 23
• SUP 1: $23.020 - Low Nov 3 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver continues to pull away from recent highs. The metal has probed the 50-day EMA at 24.064. A clear breach of this average would suggest scope for a deeper short-term pullback and open $23.020, the Nov 3 low and a firm near-term support. For bulls, a break of $25.406, Nov 16 high would reinstate a bullish theme and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open $26.002, the Aug 4 high.