MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Start on Bearish Note
Price Signal Summary – Bund Futures Start Week on Bearish Note
- A bullish theme S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. This means all key retracement points of the Jul 12 - Aug 5 bear leg have been cleared. Sights are on 4997.00 next, the Jul 17 high.
- A short-term bearish condition in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is trading at its recent lows. The latest pullback still appears to be a correction and firm support to watch lies at 1.3041, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. EURGBP is unchanged and remains in a bear-mode condition. Last week’s extension reinforces current conditions and the cross has cleared all key retracement points of the rally between Jul 17 - Aug 8. The trend outlook in EURJPY is unchanged and it remains bearish, reinforced by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode set-up. The recovery in August has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced the 20-day EMA, at 162.24, but this resistance remains intact.
- Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent sideways move marks a pause in the uptrend. The breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. WTI futures have pulled back from last week’s high and has traded to a fresh near-term low, today. A continuation down would expose the $70.88 key support, the Aug 5 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Apr 12.
- Bund futures traded lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note. Short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Note that 133.41, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced.Gilt futures remain in a short-term bear cycle and the contract traded lower Monday. The move down last week resulted in a breach of 98.79, the Aug 12 low. The break highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.00 next.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Pierces The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.1300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.1140/1202 High Aug 29 / High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1055 @ 06:40 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 1.1042 Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 1.0990 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0952 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
Last week’s move lower in EURUSD appears corrective. The current bear cycle remains intact and the pair is trading at its recent lows. Note that the 20-day EMA, at 1.1050, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.0952, allowing for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a primary uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1234, a Fibonacci projection.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 1.3425 1.764 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3200/3266 High Aug 30 / 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3119 @ 06:29 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 1.3110 Low Aug 30
- SUP 2: 1.3041 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2975 Low Aug 20
- SUP 4: 1.2918 50-day EMA
A short-term bearish condition in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is trading at its recent lows. The latest pullback still appears to be a correction and firm support to watch lies at 1.3041, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising M/T trend condition. A resumption of gains would open 1.3328, a Fibonacci retracement.
EURGBP TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.8625 High Aug 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8593 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 0.8545 High Aug 21 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.8437/8474 High Aug 28 / 20-Day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8426 @ 06:44 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 0.8400 Low Aug 30
- SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
EURGBP is unchanged and remains in a bear-mode condition. Last week’s extension reinforces current conditions and the cross has cleared all key retracement points of the rally between Jul 17 - Aug 8. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8474, the 20-day EMA. A short-term bounce would, for now, be considered corrective.
USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 153.88 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 150.29 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 149.39 High Aug 15
- RES 1: 146.85/147.21 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
- PRICE: 146.28 @ 06:56 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 143.45 Low Aug 26
- SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
- SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28
USDJPY traded higher Monday, resulting in a brief print above the 20-day EMA, at 146.85. Resistance at this EMA remains intact - for now. The trend structure is bearish and MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of weakness would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend. On the upside, a break of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a stronger correction.
EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
- RES 3: 164.61 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 164.05 200 DMA
- RES 1: 162.24/89 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
- PRICE: 161.84 @ 07:05 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 160.03 Low Aug 29
- SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
- SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support
The trend outlook in EURJPY is unchanged and it remains bearish, reinforced by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode set-up. The recovery in August has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced the 20-day EMA, at 162.24, but this resistance remains intact. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at 164.61. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 0.6824 High Aug 29
- PRICE: 0.6738 @ 07:49 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 0.6714/6670 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23
A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above 0.6799, the Jul 11 / Aug 23 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and pave the way for an extension towards 0.6871, the Dec 28 ‘23 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6714, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bear Flag
- RES 4: 1.3739 High Aug 15
- RES 3: 1.3656 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3594 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3531 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3516 @ 07:57 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 1.3441 Low Aug 28
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD is unchanged and a bearish theme remains intact. The latest impulsive sell-off reinforces the current bearish condition and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. Note too that the most recent shallow retracement appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. Sights are on 1.3358, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3594 the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
- RES 3: 136.28 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 135.17/135.59 High Aug 14 / 6
- RES 1: 134.49 High Aug 29
- PRICE: 133.37 @ 05:41 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 133.16 Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 133.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 132.54 61.8% retracement of the Jul 7 - Aug 5 rally
- SUP 4: 132.08 / Low Jul 26
Bund futures traded lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note. Short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Note that 133.41, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight scope for a deeper retracement potentially towards 132.54, 61.8% of the Jul 7 - Aug 5 rally. First resistance is 134.49, the Aug 29 high.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 3: 119.090 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 118.300/118.530 High Aug 14 / 6
- RES 1: 117.980 High Aug 29
- PRICE: 117.440 @ 06:06 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 117.343 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.140 Low Jul 30
- SUP 3: 116.890 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 116.650 Low Jul 25
A corrective bear cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and Monday’s move lower reinforces the current bearish short-term condition. The pullback that started Aug 5, has allowed an overbought condition to unwind and the broader uptrend remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a risingM/T trend. First key resistance is 118.300, the Aug 14 high. Firm support to watch lies at 117.343 the 50-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 3: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 2: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 106.360 High Aug 22
- PRICE: 106.160 @ 06:20 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 106.125 Low Aug 15
- SUP 2: 106.052 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 105.935 Low Jul 30
- SUP 4: 105.630/495 Low Jul 22 / 11
Schatz futures remain in consolidation mode. An uptrend is intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The contract has again pierced firm support at 106.208, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would be seen as a possible early bearish threat. Pivot support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 106.052. Initial resistance is at 106.360, the Aug 22 high. A break would signal a potential resumption of the uptrend.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Retracement Mode Extends
- RES 4: 101.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 100.30 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 99.85 High Aug 22
- RES 1: 99.21 High Aug 27
- PRICE: 98.18 @ Close BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 98.11 Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 98.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 97.91 1.618 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 97.73 1.764 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
Gilt futures remain in a short-term bear cycle and the contract traded lower Monday. The move down last week resulted in a breach of 98.79, the Aug 12 low. The break highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.00 next. The primary trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective phase. Initial firm resistance is 99.21, the Aug 27 high.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 1: 120.00/06 Psychological round number / High Aug 22
- PRICE: 118.58 @ Close Sep 2
- SUP 1: 118.24 Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 117.36 Low Jul 26 and a key support
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8
- SUP 4: 114.72 Low Jul 2
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and the latest move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and a bullish trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Note that the move down has resulted in a print below 118.42, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and bull trigger is 120.06, Aug 22 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5012.00 High Jul 16
- RES 1: 4997.00 High Jul 17
- PRICE: 4987.00 @ 06:26 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 4888.95 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4742.00 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. This means all key retracement points of the Jul 12 - Aug 5 bear leg have been cleared. Sights are on 4997.00 next, the Jul 17 high, where a break would open 5087.00, the Jul 12 high. Initial firm support to watch is seen at 4888.95, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
E-MINI S&P: (U4) Bulls Still In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
- RES 1: 5669.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5651.75 @ 07:16 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 5561.25/5518.91 Low Aug 29 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5438.75/5319.50 Low Aug 14 / 9
- SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8
- SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
A bullish theme S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Clearance of this level would resume the primary uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5518.91, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it is required to instead highlight a potential bearish threat.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X4) Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $86.24 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $83.50 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 2: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
- RES 1: $78.32 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: $77.37@ 07:02 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: $74.62 - Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 2: $74.64 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $73.16 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
- SUP 4: $70.35 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures have pulled back from last week’s high and the contract initially traded lower Monday. A continuation of the bear leg would expose $74.62, the Aug 5 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would mark a resumption of the downtrend that started in April. On the upside, a reversal higher would again refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $81.46, the Aug 12 high.
WTI TECHS: (V4) Starts The Week On A Bearish Note
- RES 4: $83.45 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
- RES 3: $82.62 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $80.82 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $76.09/78.54 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance
- PRICE: $74.05 @ 07:14 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: $70.88 - Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $70.43 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $68.92 - Low Dec 13 2023
- SUP 4: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures have pulled back from last week’s high and has traded to a fresh near-term low, today. A continuation down would expose the $70.88 key support, the Aug 5 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Apr 12. For bulls, a reversal higher would once again refocus attention on key resistance at $78.54, the Aug 12 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.
GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Marks A Pause In The Uptrend
- RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
- RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
- PRICE: $2495.6 @ 07:16 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: $2483.6 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2436.4/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25
- SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
- SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent sideways move marks a pause in the uptrend. The breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies are still in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2483.6, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
SILVER TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
- RES 1: $30.192 - High Aug 26 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $28.393 @ 07:59 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: $28.045/26.451 - Low AUg 16 / 8
- SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
- SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
A medium-term bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low, before rebounding and this has exposed key support at $26.018, May 2 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $30.192, the Aug 26 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of this hurdle would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502 next, a Fibonacci retracement.
MNI (LONDON)