MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Top Key 50-day EMA Resistance

Price Signal Summary - E-Minis Consolidating Ahead Of Key Resistance

In the equity space, S&P E-minis are unchanged and trading close to the all-time high of 4238.25 May 10 high. This remains a key resistance and the trigger for a resumption of the uptrend. Initial support is at 4165.25, Jun 3 low.

In the FX space, EURUSD appears vulnerable following last week's price action. The focus is on 1.2102, the 50-day EMA. GBPUSD is consolidating and remains below last week's high of 1.4248 on Jun 1. A deeper pullback would expose 1.4006, May 13 low. Note the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.4019 and also represents a key support level. USDJPY sold off sharply Friday and again on Monday, slipping through support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. A clear break lower would threaten the recent uptrend and expose 108.56, May 25 low.

On the commodity front, Gold key short-term directional triggers have been defined at; $1916.6, the Jun 1 and the bull trigger and $1856.2, the Jun 4 low. Trend conditions in oil remain bullish despite the most recent pullback. Recent Brent (Q1) gains have opened $73.00 next, a round number resistance. WTI (N1) similarly cleared resistance to hit new cycle highs, clearing the $70.00 psychological level in the process.

Within FI, Bunds (U1) have topped the 50-day EMA at 172.00 and looks to have made a clear break. This counters the bearish outlook, with support still holding at 170.99. May 31 low. Gilts (U1) are challenging resistance at 127.74/82 this morning - marking the highs between Apr 20 and May 26. A bearish risk remains present.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Holding Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2349/53 High Jan 6 / High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 2: 1.2266/85 High May 25 and the bull trigger / High Jan 8
• RES 1: 1.2214 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 1.2179 @ 06:58 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 1.2105/2105 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2052 Low May 13
• SUP 3: 1.1986 Low May 5
• SUP 4: 1.1919 61.8% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally

EURUSD is unchanged and trading above last week's low of 1.2104. The pair remains vulnerable though following a sharp pullback Jun 3 that saw price trade through initial support at 1.2133, May 28 low. This highlights potential for a deeper correction and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 1.2105 that also represents a key area of support. On the upside, primary resistance has been defined at 1.2266, May 25 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Sideways

• RES 4: 1.4448 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4377 High Apr 17, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 1: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4158 @ 06:12 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 1.4083 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 1.4024/06 50-day EMA / Low May 13
• SUP 3: 1.3972 Low May 10
• SUP 4: 1.3858 Low May 6

GBPUSD is still trading sideways and in a range below last week's 1.4248 high from Jun 1. Trend conditions are bullish. The probe last week of former resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high reinforces this bullish theme however a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open 1.4315 next, April 18, 2018 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 1.4083, the Jun 4 low. A break would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.4024.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8777 2.0% 10-dma envelope and high Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8672 High May 25
• PRICE: 0.8603 @ 06:16 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 0.8565/61 Low Jun 4 / Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8439 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP continues to trade in a range. The broader outlook remains bearish following the move lower between May 25 - 28. Initial resistance has been defined at 0.8672, May 25 high and attention is on support at 0.8561, May 12 low where a break would strengthen a bearish case and expose 0.8531, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. On the upside, a move above 0.8672 alters the picture.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Near Recent Lows

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 110.33 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 109.46 @ 06:21 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 109.19/108.94 Low Jun 7 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

USDJPY is trading closer to recent lows following the pullback from 110.33, Jun 4 high. This move lower has resulted in a print below initial key short-term support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. The move dents the bullish theme and a deeper sell-off would expose 108.56, May 25 low. A recovery would instead refocus attention on 110.33 where a break would resume the uptrend and open this year's 110.97 high from Mar 31 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 134.92 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 3: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 1: 134.13 High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 133.33 @ 06:27 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 132.89 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 132.52 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 131.88 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 131.41 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY is consolidating. Trend conditions remain bullish despite the recent move lower. The pullback is likely a correction. The cross touched a high of 134.13 on Jun 1 and the extension reinforces bullish conditions signalling scope for further gains within the rising channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The top of the channel intersects at 134.92. Firm support lies at 132.52, May 24 low. Initial support is seen at 132.89, the weekly low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Outlook Still Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• RES 1: 0.7773 High Jun 2
• PRICE: 0.7740 @ 06:36 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 0.7646 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7540 200-dma

AUDUSD broke through 0.7675 on Jun 3 but has since reversed the sharp move lower and is consolidating. Last week's break lower does signal the end of the recent broader consolidation that has been in place since mid-April. A resumption of weakness would open 0.7586, Apr 13 low and 0.7532, Apr 1 low and a key support. Initial resistance is at 0.7773, Jun 2 high ahead of 0.7813, May 18 high. A break of the latter would ease any bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Range-Bound

• RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 3: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2251 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2142/2203 High May 27 / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2107 @ 06:39 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 1.2007 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
• SUP 4: 1.1840 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD is still in a range. Trend conditions however remain bearish. The pair printed a new trend low of 1.2007 on Jun 1 , extending the primary downtrend. USDCAD continues to erode major support at 1.2062, Sep 2017 low. This level represents an important pivot point marking either the base of a broad range or the midpoint of a double top reversal. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2203, May 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 172.80 High Apr 23
• RES 3: 172.64 61.8% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 172.60 High May 7
• RES 1: 172.30 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 172.15 @ 05:09 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 171.51 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.99 Low Mar 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 170.56 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 170.27 Low May 21

Bund futures traded higher yesterday and have breached resistance at 172.01, the 50-day EMA and 172.05, Jun 4 high. The break higher removes recent bearish concerns and instead signals scope for stronger short-term gains. Potential is seen for a move towards 172.64, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support lies at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 171.51. Key support has been defined at 170.99, Mar 31 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Bullish Price Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.357 0.764 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.290 High May 7
• RES 1: 134.270 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 134.200 @ 05:22 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 134.011 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28 and 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.690 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures traded higher Jun 4 and confirmed a clear break of resistance at 134.100. The break higher also confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows as the rally from the May 20 low extends. This signals scope for a move towards 134.290 next, May 7 high ahead of 134.357, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 133.860, May 28 and 31 low. A break is needed to reverse the current direction.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Directional Triggers Remain Intact

• RES 4: 112.204 138.2 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 112.197 1.236 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 112.185 1.00 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 112.180 High May 27
• PRICE: 112.165 @ 05:27 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 112.145 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 112.135 Low May 27, 28 and 31
• SUP 3: 112.125 Low May 17
• SUP 4: 112.110 Low Apr 20 and key support

Schatz futures are consolidating and price remains within its recent range. Recent price action has defined key short-term directional triggers at; 112.180, May 27 high and 112.135, the lows between May 27 - 31. A break of support would strengthen a bearish case and open 112.120, May 17 low and the key support at 112.110. Clearance of resistance at 112.180 would instead signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 128.10 2.500 projection of the May 13 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 127.89 2.236 proj of the May 13 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 127.74/82 High May 7, 26 / High Apr 20 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 127.60 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 127.48 @ Close Jun 8
• SUP 1: 126.70 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 126.12 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 125.94 Low May 13 and key support

Gilt futures broader outlook remains bearish despite this week's climb. Recent gains stalled on May 27, resulting in a sharp pullback. This signals the end of the recent corrective recovery between May 13 - 26. If correct, it suggests scope for short-term weakness that would expose last month's low of 125.94 on May 13. Key short-term resistance is marked by the highs of late April and early May where a break is needed to alter the picture.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Fresh Highs

• RES 4: 151.88 0.618 proj of the May 19 - 27 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 151.43 0.618 proj of the May 19 - 27 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.07 0.50 proj of the May 19 - 27 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 150.89/51.00 High Jun 8 / Round Number Resistance
• PRICE: 150.76 @ Close Jun 8
• SUP 1: 149.94 Low Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 149.53 Low May 28 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 148.80 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low May 24

BTP futures traded higher again yesterday and the contract maintains the current bullish corrective cycle following the reversal from the 147.00 low on Mar 19. This cycle is allowing an earlier oversold condition to unwind. Attention is on the 151.00 handle next and 151.07, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support has been defined at 149.53, the May 28 low. A break would signal a potential reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 4208.27 Bull channel top drawn off the Feb 26 low
• RES 3: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4116.00 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 4102.00 @ 05:43 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 4039.92/4016.00 20-day EMA / Low May 27
• SUP 2: 3958.56/48.13 50-day EMA / Channel base from Feb 26 low
• SUP 3: 3882.00 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish with the contract achieving a fresh trend high of 4116.00 yesterday. The move higher this week confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the broad positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4140.00 next, the Jan 18, 2008 high. On the downside, firm trend support is unchanged at 3882.00, May 19 low. Initial support lies at 4039.92.

E-MINI S&P (M1): Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4331.74 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4238.25 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4236.75 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 4225.50 @ 06:53 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 4165.25 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 4125.06/4055.60 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4021.00 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent gains resulted in a break of 4185.00, May 21 high reinforcing the bullish significance of the recovery in May from support defined by the 50-day EMA - the average was tested twice in May. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4238.25, May 10 high. Initial firm support is at 4055.50, May 19 low. Last week's low of 4165.25 marks the first support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Uptrend Resumes

• RES 4: $74.20 - High Apr 26, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $73.40 - High May 20 2019 (cont)
• RES 2: $73.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $72.83 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $72.45 @ 06:51 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: $69.90 High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 2: $69.47 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $66.39/64.50 - Low May 24 / Low May 21 and key support
• SUP 4: $63.51 - Low Apr 22

Brent crude futures have traded higher once again. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and with the $72.00 handle cleared attention turns to $73.00 and $73.40. The latter is the May 20, 2019 high (cont). Weakness through $64.50, the May 21 low is required to highlight a key short-term top. Initial support lies at $69.90, May 18 high with the 20-day EMA intersecting at $69.47.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Still Defying Gravity

• RES 4: $72.70 - High Oct 15, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $72.06 - 3.00 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: $70.92 - 2.764 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: $70.62 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $70.41 @ 06:58 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: $67.02 - High May 18
• SUP 2: $66.83 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $63.63/61.56 - Low May 24 / Low May 21
• SUP 4: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support

WTI crude futures remain bullish and the contract has traded higher once again. The psychological $70.00 handle has been cleared. The break reinforces current trend conditions and opens $70.92 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support has been defined at $61.56, May 21 low. A break is required to suggest a key short-term top. Initial support is seen at $67.02.

GOLD TECHS: Watching The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: $1965.6 - High Nov 9, 2020
• RES 3: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 1: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1892.8 @ 07:13 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: $1856.2 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $1852.3 - Low May 19
• SUP 3: $1835.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1808.9 - Low May 13

Gold faced strong selling pressure Jun 3 and the yellow metal probed the 20-day EMA currently at $1875.4 A clear breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback to $1852.3, May 19 low. Recent weakness is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Note that below $1852.3 lies support highlighted by the 50-day EMA at $1835.7. The 50-day EMA marks a key trend support area. Key resistance has been defined at $1916.6.

SILVER TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 2: $28.556/753 - High Jun 1 / High May 18
• RES 1: $28.237 - High Jun 3
• PRICE: $27.592 @ 07:17 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: $27.040 - Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: $27.033 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $26.721 - Low Mar 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver is unchanged. The metal faced selling pressure on Jun 3 moving sharply below the $28.00 handle. The move lower exposes support defined by the 50-day EMA at $27.033. A clear break of the EMA would concern bulls and attention would likely turn to support at $26.721, Mar 13 low. Key resistance has been defined at $28.753, May 18 high. Initial resistance though is seen at $28.237, Jun 3 high.