MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Buy The Dip Strategy Keeps ES1 Bullish

Price Signal Summary - Buy The Dip Strategy Keeps ES1 Bullish

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintain a strong bullish tone, with Tuesday's initial weakness wholly reversed by the Wednesday open. The focus is on 4400.00 next, a round number resistance. EUROSTOXX 50 (U1) on the other hand appears vulnerable. Attention is on the bearish engulfing candle from Jun 18. A break of support at 4015.00, Jun 21 low would reinforce the importance of the engulfing line and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 4000.00 and 3914.00, May 20 low.
• In FX, the USD is holding its ground and the outlook remains bullish. The EURUSD bear trigger is Friday's/Tuesday's low of 1.1807/8. Resistance to watch is at 1.1909, Jun 30 high. Recent GBPUSD gains appear to be a correction. Attention is on a break of Friday's 1.3733 low that would open 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Resistance is at 1.3928, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY uptrend remains intact despite this week's modest weakness. The focus turns to 111.71/112.01, Mar 24, 2020 high and 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Scope also exists for a climb towards 112.23, Feb 20, 2020 high. Key short-term support lies at 110.42, Jun 30 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold is firmer. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1815.8. The area around the EMA represents a key short-term resistance and a clear break is required to suggest scope for stronger near-term gains. Brent (U1) focus is on $77.86, 1.382 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. WTI (Q1) sights are set on $77.35, 1.618 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing.
• Within FI, Bund futures are stronger having taken out resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high. This signals scope for a stronger rally toward 174.28, the 0.764 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing. Gilt futures have topped key resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high, strengthening the bullish case to open 129.40, the 1.50 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing. Key pivot support is unchanged at 126.70, Jun 3 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Probes Support

• RES 4: 1.2014 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 2: 1.1930/1975 High Jun 29 / High Jun 25
• RES 1: 1.1895 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 1.1823 @ 06:00 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.1807/1795 Low Jul 6 / Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD traded lower yesterday and probed 1.1808, Jul 2 low. The outlook remains bearish. A clear break of 1.1808 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1795 next, Apr 6 low and the key support at 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. Initial resistance is at 1.1895, yesterday's high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Finds Resistance

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.3963/1.4001 50-day EMA / High Jun 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3898/3916 High Jul2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3801 @ 06:07 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.3733 Low Jul 2 and the intraday bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD's recovery was short-lived and the pair has found resistance at 1.3898, yesterday's high. The near-term outlook is bearish. Last week, price breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low to confirm a resumption of the current bearish cycle. This opens 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.4001, Jun 23 high. First resistance though is at 1.3898.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8616/29 High Jul 1 and key resistance / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8566 @ 06:12 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 0.8530/31 Low June 23 / 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8494 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

Despite yesterday's recovery from the day low, the EURGBP outlook remains bearish. Support at 0.8561, May 12 low was breached Jun 17. This continues to signal the end of the recent consolidation and still highlights a bearish theme. The focus is on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and just above the Jun 23 low. Clearance of this level would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8616, Jul 1 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Bearish Cycle

• RES 4: 112.40 High Apr 24, 2019
• RES 3: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 111.71/112.01 High Mar 24, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 111.66 High Jul 2
• PRICE: 110.55 @ 06:20 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 110.40 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 109.85/72 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 109.19 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 108.56 Low May 25

USDJPY remains weaker and continues to pull away from last week's high of 111.66. Pullbacks though are still considered corrective and a bullish trend condition dominates. The pair last week cleared 111.12, Jun 24 high and a recent bull trigger. This reinforces the bull trend and the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open 112.01, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. A deeper sell-off would expose 109.85.

EURJPY TECHS: Attention Is On The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 132.70 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 132.43 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 131.86 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 130.76 @ 06:36 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 130.50/130.04 Intraday low / Low Jun 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 129.59 Low Apr 23
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

EURJPY extended losses Tuesday and continues to pull away from recent highs. The trend outlook is unchanged and remains bearish with recent weakness reinforces this theme. Furthermore, the sharp move lower between Jun 15 - 21 continues to highlight the risk for a depreciation in the cross. 130.04, Jun 21 low is the bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at 132.43. Bearish!

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.7643 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 2: 0.7617 High Jun 25 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 0.7504 @ 06:44 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 0.7445 Low Jul 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.7400 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.7378 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 4: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing

AUDUSD found resistance at 0.7599 yesterday. The sharp sell-off keeps the outlook bearish and the focus is on key support at 0.7445, Jul 2 low. Last week's move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthemore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode, reinforcing a bearish theme. A break of 0.7445 would open 0.7378, a bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high. Firm resistance is at 0.7617.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Pressure Returns

• RES 4: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.2501 76.4% of Apr 21 - Jun 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2495 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 1.2463 @ 06:51 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.2303/2253 Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 1.2057 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.2007 Low May 18 and key support

USDCAD rallied yesterday, bouncing off support at 1.2303. Weaker Oil prices also provided support. The pair has probed resistance at 1.2487, Jun 21 high and this has narrowed the gap with the 1.2501 Fibonacci retracement. A bullish theme follows the recovery between Jun 1 - 21 that confirmed a reversal. A break of 1.2501 would open 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Firm trend support lies at 1.2253, Jun 23 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Clears Key Resistance

• RES 4: 175.08 1.00 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 3: 174.97 High Mar 3 (cont)
• RES 2: 174.28 0.764 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 174.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 173.54 @ 05:07 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 172.49/29 Low Jul 6 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 171.67 Low Jun 22 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 3: 171.37 Low Jun 3
• SUP 4: 170.99 Low May 31 and key short-term support

Bund futures traded higher last week and resumed its gains yesterday. The contract has cleared key resistance at 173.16, Jan 11 high. The break removes recent bearish concerns and instead confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 9. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows has also been reestablished. Attention turns to 174.00 next. Key support is at 171.67, Jun 22 low. Initial support is at yesterday's 172.49 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Extends Gains

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.390 High Jun 15 and high Jul 6
• PRICE: 134.360 @ 05:18 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 134.070 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 133.700 76.4% retracement of the May 20 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 133.530 Low May 21

Bobl futures traded higher again last week and resumed their gains yesterday. A key support lies at 133.860, May 28, 31 and Jun 22 low. The recent continued recovery from these lows highlights a more positive short-term theme and attention is on key resistance at 124.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. A break would confirm scope for stronger gains. Price needs to breach 133.860 support to reinstate a bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 112.250 High Mar 1 and 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.210 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 112.205 High Jun 14
• RES 1: 112.185 High Jun 15, 16 and high Jul 6
• PRICE: 112.145 @ 05:20 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 112.140 Low Jul 5 and 6
• SUP 2: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28
• SUP 3: 112.086 138.2% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 112.075 150.0% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally

Schatz futures traded higher last week and a near-term bullish theme remains intact. The recent short-term recovery from the 112.110 congestion lows suggests scope for a continuation higher. Attention has turned to the key resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high where a break would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, clearance of 112.110 would instead reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support lies at 112.140, Jul 5 and 6 low.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 129.99 High Feb 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 129.61 1.618 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 129.40 1.50 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 129.19 1.382 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• PRICE: 129.10 @ Close Jul 6
• SUP 1: 128.39 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 127.90 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 127.25/126.91 Low Jun 10 / Low Jun 17 and key support
• SUP 4: 126.70 Low Jun 3

Gilt futures resumed their uptrend yesterday. This has resulted in a clear break of the key S/T resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. The break represents an important short-term bullish development and signals a resumption of the uptrend that started May 13. Furthermore, the move higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. With 129.00 cleared, attention is on 129.19 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 128.39.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Breaches The June High

• RES 4: 153.49 0.618 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 152.85 0.50 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 1: 152.61 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 152.46 @ Close Jul 6
• SUP 1: 151.54 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 151.17 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 150.56 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 149.97 Low Jun 25 and key short-term support

BTPs rallied last week and ended the week on a strong note. Futures resumed the rally yesterday and importantly, this has resulted in breach of key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19 and paves the way for a stronger short-term recovery. Attention is on 153.00 and 153.82, Feb 12 high (cont). Initial support is at yesterday's 151.54 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Bearish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 3: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 2: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• PRICE: 4035.00 @ 05:55 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 4022.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4015.00 Low Jun 21 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower yesterday. The contract sold off Jun 30 exposing key support at 4015.00, Jun 21 low. A key technical pattern on Jun 18 - a bearish engulfing candle - is still in play. This continues to warn of a short-term top in the trend. A break of 4015.00 would reinforce the engulfing line and signal scope for a deeper pullback opening, 4000.00 and 3914.00, May 20 low. Initial resistance is at 4121.00, Jun 25 high.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4000.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4348.00 High Jul 6
• PRICE: 4332.75 @ 07:13 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 4258.28 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4192.18/26.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis ended last week on a firm note, rallying once again to an all-time high and did manage to extend gains initially yesterday. A bullish theme remains intact. The contract recently recovered from support near the 50-day EMA and this reinforces bullish conditions. 4322.15 has been cleared, 0.764 projection of the Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing. Attention is on the 4400.00 handle. Initial support lies at 4258.28, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Stalls At Yesterday's High

• RES 4: $79.02 - 1.50 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 2: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 1: $77.84 - High Jul 6
• PRICE: $74.66 @ 06:59 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $73.91/36 - 20-day EMA / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $71.24 - Low Jun 17 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $69.42 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 4: $67.40 - Low May 25

Brent futures faced strong selling pressure yesterday. The sell-off has defined resistance at $77.84 and this represents a near-term bull trigger. The move lower has also exposed support at the 20-day EMA that intersects at $73.91. A breach of the EMA would open $73.36, the Jun 29 low and an important short-term support. For bulls, a move above $77.84 would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Attention Is On The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $78.79 - 1.764 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 1: $76.98 - High Jul 6
• PRICE: $73.67 @ 07:08 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $72.94 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $72.17/69.54 - 20-day EMA / Low Jun 17 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: $68.71 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $66.80 - High May 18

WTI crude futures faced strong selling pressure yesterday. The move lower has defined resistance at $76.98 and this represents a near-term bull trigger. The move lower has also exposed support at the 20-day EMA that intersects at $72.17. A breach of the average would open $71.97, Jun 29 low and an important short-term support. For bulls, a move above $76.98 would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Tests The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1833.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1815.0/1 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 6
• PRICE: $1800.9 @ 07:23 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 3: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: $1700.00 - Round number support

Gold maintains a firmer short-term tone having extended the recovery from $1750.8, Jun 29 low. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $1815.0 and was tested yesterday. The area around the EMA represents a key S/T resistance and a clear break is required to suggest scope for stronger near-term gains. This would open $1833.7, a Fibonacci retracement. A failure at the 50-day EMA would be a bearish signal and suggest scope for a return to $1750.8.

SILVER TECHS: Current Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.777/27.245 - High Jul 6 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $26.341 @ 07:26 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: $25.949/529 - Low Jul 1 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver has recently breached resistance at $26.495, Jun 18 high. The break of this level neutralises a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. This has exposed $27.245, Jun 17 high. A failure to hold onto current strength though would refocus attention on the key support and bear trigger at $25.529, Jun 29 low. Clearance of this level resumes recent bearish pressure.