MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Clear Uptrend in Gold Holds
Price Signal Summary – Clear Uptrend in Gold Holds
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The medium-term trend direction remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5282.03.
- EURUSD continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend outlook is unchanged, a bull cycle remains in play - MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. EURGBP traded sharply lower Thursday marking an extension of the pullback from the Mar 11 high. The cross has breached 0.8369, the Mar 14 low, and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 0.8350. The average marks a key short-term pivot level. USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
- A clear uptrend in Gold is intact and this week’s resumption of the bull cycle reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Thursday’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on $3079.2. A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $69.80, the Feb 4 low.
- Bund futures have traded higher this week. For now, gains are considered corrective. A bearish trend theme is intact and the latest recovery is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. The S/T trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. However, the contract has breached 92.63, the Mar 7 high. The clear break of this level instead strengthens a near-term bullish theme.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0955 High Mar 18
- PRICE: 1.0826 @ 06:00 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.0749 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0609 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
EURUSD continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend outlook is unchanged, a bull cycle remains in play - MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.1040, the Oct 4 ‘24 high. Initial key support to watch is 1.0609, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback is allowing this set-up to unwind.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.3015 High
- PRICE: 1.2925 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.2911 Low Mar 14
- SUP 2: 1.2848 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2705 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2556 Low Feb 28
The GBPUSD trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish. The latest pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has recently breached a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924, 61.8% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. The clear break of this price point opens 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2705, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Key Support Holds For Now
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8377 @ 06:51 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 0.8350 50-day EMA and pivot support
- SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support
EURGBP traded sharply lower Thursday marking an extension of the pullback from the Mar 11 high. The cross has breached 0.8369, the Mar 14 low, and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 0.8350. The average marks a key short-term pivot level. A break of it would undermine the recent bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8321, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 0.8450, the Mar 11 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Resistance To Monitor Is The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 151.08/30 50-day EMA / High Mar 3
- RES 1: 150.15 High Mar 19
- PRICE: 149.53 @ 06:46 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 148.18/146.54 Low Mar 20 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 146.81 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and the latest pullback is an early bearish signal suggesting the recent correction is over. Key resistance to watch is 151.08, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger rally. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend.
EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 161.94 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 160.74 Low Mar 20
- SUP 2: 160.22 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
EURJPY has pulled back from this week’s high. For now, the move down appears corrective and is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Short-term pivot support to watch is 160.22, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. Recent gains resulted in a print above resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6296 @ 07:54 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 0.6259 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The latest pullback in AUDUSD appears corrective and a short-term bullish theme remains intact. Key short-term support to watch lies at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bear threat. First support to watch is 0.6259, the Mar 11 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4324 @ 07:53 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 128.87 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 128.25 @ 05:40 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 126.53 Low Mar 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
Bund futures have traded higher this week. For now, gains are considered corrective. A bearish trend theme is intact and the latest recovery is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low. A recent impulsive sell-off reinforced a bear theme and has signalled scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is also within range.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Unwinding An Oversold Condition
- RES 4: 118.090 High Mar 5
- RES 3: 117.850 Low Feb 20
- RES 2: 117.645 50.0% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- RES 1: 117.409 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.230 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 116.470/250 Low Mar 12 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle - a correction. The recent trend condition has been oversold and the move higher has allowed this set-up to unwind. The trend direction is down. Former support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared. The recent sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 116.000. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.762 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- PRICE: 106.700 @ 05:58 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 106.530/405 Low Mar 10 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. First resistance is 106.762, a Fibonacci retracement. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350, a Fibonacci retracement.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Has Traded Through Resistance
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 93.01 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 92.04 @ Close Mar 20
- SUP 1: 91.74 Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: 91.07/90.71 Low Mar 13 / 6
- SUP 3: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
The S/T trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. However, the contract has breached 92.63, the Mar 7 high. The clear break of this level instead strengthens a near-term bullish theme and opens 93.06, the Mar 4 low and a gap high on the daily chart. Note that key resistance and the bull trigger is at 93.79, the Mar 4 high. A break would be bullish. Initial support to watch is at 91.74, the Mar 18 low.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Recovery Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 117.52 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.02 @ Close Mar 20
- SUP 1: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
The week’s recovery in BTP futures is considered corrective. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory and the latest bounce is allowing the condition to unwind. Resistance to watch 117.52, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 118.56, the Mar 5 high. A resumption of weakness and a breach of 115.75, the Mar 14 low, would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 115.52, a Fibonacci projection.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5562.87 0.764 proj of the Feb 3 - Mar 3 - 11 price swing
- RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20
- PRICE: 5365.00 @ 06:25 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 5282.03/5229.00 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5202.00 Low Feb 2
- SUP 3: 5160.00 Low Feb 4
- SUP 4: 5079.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The medium-term trend direction remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5282.03. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a retracement towards 5160.00, the Feb 4 low. The bull trigger is 5516.00, the Mar 3 high.
E-MINI S&P: (M5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 5937.64 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 2: 5810.56 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5770.50 High Mar 19
- PRICE: 5708.25 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 5559.75 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold. Recent gains are allowing this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5937.64, the 50-day EMA. The bear trigger is 5559.75, the Mar 13 low.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Primary Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $74.76 - High Feb 25
- RES 1: $72.85 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- PRICE: $72.15 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Brent futures have traded higher this week. The recovery that started Mar 5 appears corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. The recent move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is $72.85, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (K5) MA Studies Remain In A Bear-Mode Position
- RES 4: $76.57 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $70.98 - High Feb 25
- RES 1: $69.15 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $68.26 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: $64.85 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.73 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $59.40 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $69.80, the Feb 4 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.73 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance to watch is $69.15, 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3106.8 - 2.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3100.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3079.2 - 2.618 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3057.5 - High Mar 20
- PRICE: $3030.3 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: $2999.5 - Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: $2953.5/2873.4 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 4: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
A clear uptrend in Gold is intact and this week’s resumption of the bull cycle reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Thursday’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on $3079.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Support is at $2953.5, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.548 - High Oct 29 ‘24
- RES 1: $34.233 - High Mar 18
- PRICE: $33.048@ 07:58 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: $32.947 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $32.155/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 3: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 4: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and a bear trigger
Silver has pulled back from its recent highs. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and a bull cycle remains in play. The metal has recently breached a key resistance at $33.397, the Feb 14 high, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19. This signals scope for a climb towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Key trend support has been defined at $30.814, the Feb 28 low.