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MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 29

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MNI: ITALY NOV FLASH HICP +0% M/M, +1.6% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE NOV FLASH HICP +2.3% Y/Y

MNI: UK OCT M4 MONEY SUPPLY -0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Corrective Gilt Cycle in Play

Story

Price Signal Summary – Corrective Gilt Cycle in Play

  • S&P E-Minis are unchanged and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. A bear trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. A fresh cycle low on Nov 19 marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has traded through 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
  • EURGBP is trading lower but remains inside a range. Attention is on a bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12, that highlights a possible S/T reversal. The recovery from the Nov 22 low is also seen as a potential bullish development. EURJPY remains soft and the cross is again trading lower, today. The cross has cleared a number of retracement points and sights are on 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle. Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle reinforced this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.           
  • The long-term trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance.
  • Bund futures have traded higher this week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. A bullish theme remains intact and further gains are likely. Price has recently breached 133.39, 50.0% of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 96.33 next, a Fibonacci projection.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

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Price Signal Summary – Corrective Gilt Cycle in Play

  • S&P E-Minis are unchanged and the contract is trading at this week’s highs. Sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. A bear trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. A fresh cycle low on Nov 19 marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has traded through 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
  • EURGBP is trading lower but remains inside a range. Attention is on a bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12, that highlights a possible S/T reversal. The recovery from the Nov 22 low is also seen as a potential bullish development. EURJPY remains soft and the cross is again trading lower, today. The cross has cleared a number of retracement points and sights are on 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle. Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle reinforced this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.           
  • The long-term trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance.
  • Bund futures have traded higher this week and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. A bullish theme remains intact and further gains are likely. Price has recently breached 133.39, 50.0% of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 96.33 next, a Fibonacci projection.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

Keep reading...Show less