MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Corrective Pullback In EURUSD

Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Weakness Appears To Be A Correction

• In the equity space, a bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last Friday’s push higher is a positive development. So far, corrections have been shallow - a bullish signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this highlights positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would open 4690.75, the Aug 2 high. Initial support lies at 4596.86, the 20-day EMA. A bullish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. The contract traded higher last week and breached 4387.00, the Nov 24 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4446.00, the Aug 10 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4328.20, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, the trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish, however, the pair started the week on a softer note as it extends the pullback from last week’s 1.1017 high (Nov 17). The move lower appears to be a correction. Note that the trend condition is overbought and the move lower is allowing this set-up to unwind. Support to watch is 1.0770, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at 1.1065, the Aug 10 high. The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and the move lower Monday is considered corrective. Recent gains maintain the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.2800, the Aug 22 high and 1.2868, a vol band resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at 1.2517, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY maintains a softer tone. The pair traded lower last week and breached 147.15, the Nov 21 low. The move lower highlights a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. Attention is on a key support at 146.95, a trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. This line was breached Monday. A clear break would signal a stronger reversal and open 145.91, the Sep 11 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 148.51, the Nov 30 high.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded in a volatile manner Monday. The trend condition is bullish and yesterday’s initial gains reinforce this theme. The precious metal touched a fresh all-time high of $2135.39 and this signals potential for a climb towards 2177.58 next, the 1.236 projection of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing. Price has since retraced and is trading closer to this week’s low, so far. A short-term pullback is considered corrective - for now. Initial support is $2004.1, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, the trend outlook in WTI futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the move lower from last Thursday’s high, reinforces this set-up. Resistance to watch is at $79.65, the Nov 14 high. A breach of this hurdle would strengthen any developing bullish threat and open $83.20, the Nov 3 high. Sights are on the bear trigger at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
• In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following last week’s gains and this week’s continuation higher. The contract traded above 131.74 last week, the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on 134.29 next, the Jul 19 high. Initial firm support lies at 131.94, the Nov 30 low. Gilt futures sold off sharply last Thursday. For now, a bull cycle remains in play and key short-term support has been defined at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The recovery from this level is a positive development and has opened 98.05, the Nov 17 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 95.25 would instead strengthen a bearish threat and expose 94.74, the 2.618 projection of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing. Initial support lies at 96.10, the Nov 30 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0913/1017 High Dec 1 / High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0818 @ 18:43 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 1.0804/0770 Low Dec 4 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0756 High Nov 5 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish, however, the pair has started the week on a softer note as it extends the pullback from last week’s 1.1017 high (Nov 17). The move lower appears to be a correction. Note that the trend condition is overbought and the move lower is allowing this set-up to unwind. Support to watch is 1.0770, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at 1.1065, the Aug 10 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2868 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2800 High Aug 22
• RES 1: 1.2733 High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2638 @ 05:58 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: 1.2591/2517 Low Nov 27 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2424 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and the move lower Monday is considered corrective. Recent gains maintain the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. The focus is on 1.2800, the Aug 22 high and 1.2868, a vol band resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at 1.2517, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8725 High Nov 22
• RES 3: 0.8690 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 0.8668 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8616 Low Oct 11
• PRICE: 0.8581 @ 06:09 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: 0.8558 76.4% retracement of the Aug 23 - Nov 20 bull run
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 0.8481 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support

EURGBP maintains a softer tone and the cross traded sharply lower Friday. Last week's downleg resulted in a break of 0.8650, the Nov 6 low and key support, and 0.8598, the 61.8% retracement for the Aug - Nov bull run. Sights are on 0.8558, the 76.4% retracement point, where a clear break would open 0.8524, the Sep 5 low. Initial resistance is seen 0.8616, the Oct 11 low. Gains would be considered corrective.

USDJPY TECHS: Challenging Trendline Support

• RES 4: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• RES 2: 149.75 High Nov 22 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 148.51 High Nov 30
• PRICE: 146.87 @ 06:32 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: 146.23 Loe Dec 4
• SUP 2: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
• SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run

USDJPY maintains a softer tone. The pair traded lower last week and breached 147.15, the Nov 21 low. The move lower highlights a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. Attention is on a key support at 146.95, a trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. This line was breached Monday. A clear break would signal a stronger reversal and open 145.91, the Sep 11 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 148.51, the Nov 30 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 164.30 High Nov 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 162.25/163.72 High Nov 29 / 27
• RES 1: 160.32/161.47 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 159.36 @ 10:03 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: 158.58 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 158.22 61.8% retracement Oct - Nov Upleg
• SUP 3: 157.70 Low Oct 30
• SUP 4: 156.78 76.4% retracement Oct - Nov Upleg

The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact, however, a corrective cycle resulted in a move lower last week, and the contract remains soft for now. The cross has traded through the 50-day EMA. A continuation of the bear leg would signal scope for weakness towards 157.70, the Oct 30 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 161.47, the 20-day EMA. The bull trigger is far off at 164.30, the Nov 16 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6734 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6691 High Dec 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6616 @ 20:17 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 0.6547 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6485 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pullback from Monday’s high is considered corrective. Last week’s rally has reinforced the current trend direction, and the bullish significance of the recent break of resistance at 0.6522, Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Price has also traded through 0.6656, 61.8% of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg. This signals scope for 0.6734, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Firm support is seen at 0.6539, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 1.3712 High Nov 24
• RES 1: 1.3653 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3568 @ 07:54 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: 1.3480 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 11.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 3: 1.3401 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

USDCAD maintains a softer tone following last week’s bearish extension and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The recent break of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low, strengthens the current downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 1.3417 next, the Sep 29 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.3653, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this hurdle is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 135.18 High 2.236 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 135.00 High Jun 27 (cont)
• RES 2: 134.29 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 134.17 Intraday high
• PRICE: 133.89 @ 10:01 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: 133.03 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 131.94/131.33 Low Nov 30 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 130.11 Low Nov 24 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 129.60 Low Nov 14

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following last week’s gains and this week’s continuation higher. The contract traded above 131.74 last week, the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on 134.29 next, the Jul 19 high. Key support has been defined at 130.11, the Nov 24 low. Initial firm support lies at 131.94, the Nov 30 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bull Theme Still Intact

• RES 4: 119.020 High May 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.752 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 118.500 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.390 High Dec 4
• PRICE: 118.360 @ 10:05 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: 117.960/230 Low Dec 4 / High Nov 17
• SUP 2: 117.028 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.260 Low Nov 27 and key support
• SUP 4: 116.000 Low Nov 13

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and last week’s strong rally and this week’s extension has reinforced this theme. The contract cleared 117.230 last week, Nov 17 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Sep 28. The break paves the way for a move towards 118.752 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 116.260, the Nov 27 low. Initial firm support lies at 117.230, the Nov 17 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 106.044 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 6 downleg
• RES 3: 105.910 High May 16 (cont)
• RES 2: 105.781 1.618 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 2 - 27 price swing
• RES 1: 105.750 Intraday high
• PRICE: 105.685 @ 10:11 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: 105.340 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 105.250/105.162 Low Nov 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 104.915 Low Nov 27 and a key support
• SUP 4: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger

Schatz futures traded sharply higher last week and the move accelerated on Friday, reinforcing bullish conditions. The contract has breached resistance at 105.580, the Aug 24 high, strengthening current bullish conditions. This signals scope for a climb towards 105.781, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 105.340, the Nov 30 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 99.12 138.2% retracement of the Nov 17 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 98.71 123.6% retracement of the Nov 17 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 98.05 High Nov 17 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 97.93 High Nov 22 / 29
• PRICE: 96.58 @ Close Dec 4
• SUP 1: 96.10 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 95.25 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 94.74 2.618 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures sold off sharply last Thursday. For now, a bull cycle remains in play and key short-term support has been defined at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The recovery from this level is a positive development and has opened 98.05, the Nov 17 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 95.25 would instead strengthen a bearish threat and expose 94.74, the 2.618 projection of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.60 High Jun 26 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.48 High Jul 19 (cont)
• RES 1: 116.76 High Jul 27 (cont)
• PRICE: 116.04 @ Close Dec 4
• SUP 1: 113.71 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 113.28/112.69 Low Nov 24 and key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 110.81 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 109.64 Low Nov 1

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s rally has reinforced the bullish condition. The break of resistance at 114.89, the Nov 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 19. Potential is for a climb towards 116.76 next, the Jul 27 high (cont). On the downside, key short-term trend support has been defined at 113.28, the Nov 24 low. A break of this level is required to signal a short-term top.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 112-03 1.382 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: 111-19 1.236 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: 111-00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 110-28 High Dec 1
• PRICE: 110-04 @ 18:37 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 109-02+ 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108-18+ Low Nov 27 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 107-22 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 107-11+ Low Nov 13 and a reversal trigger

The trend direction in Treasuries remains up and today’s pullback is considered corrective. Price has pierced 110-25, the 1.00 projection of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing. A resumption of gains would open the 111-00 handle. Last week’s rally confirmed an extension of the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. Initial key support is at 108-18+, the Nov 27 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4533.00 High Jul 31
• RES 3: 4500.00 High 1
• RES 2: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 4441.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4424.00 @ 06:02 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: 4328.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4269.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10
• SUP 4: 4143.00 Low Nov 8

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. The contract traded higher last week and breached 4387.00, the Nov 24 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4446.00, the Aug 10 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4328.20, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 4738.50 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4690.75 High Aug 2
• RES 1: 4657.75 High Dec 4
• PRICE: 4609.25 @ 07:08 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: 4596.86 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4442.65 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4402.00 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 4373.75 Low Nov 3

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and last Friday’s push higher is a positive development. The contract is trading closer to its recent highs and so far, corrections have been shallow. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this highlights positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 4690.75, the Aug 2 high. Initial support lies at 4596.86, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: $91.04 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $88.55 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $78.09 @ 06:54 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: $76.71 - Low Nov 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $75.07 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 15 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.50 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.45 - Low Jun 23

Brent futures peaked at $84.61 last Thursday and the contract has since pulled back. $84.61 has been defined as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to suggest potential for a stronger rally. Note that a break would also confirm a clear breach of resistance at $83.62, the Nov 14 high. The trend direction remains down. A deeper pullback would expose the bear trigger at $76.71, the Nov 16 low.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $88.37 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $85.00 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $73.19 @ 06:59 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: $72.37 - Low Nov 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

The trend outlook in WTI futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and the move lower from last Thursday’s high, reinforces this set-up. Resistance to watch is at $79.65, the Nov 14 high. A breach of this hurdle would strengthen any developing bullish threat and open $83.20, the Nov 3 high. On the downside, sights are on the bear trigger at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 1: $2077.4 - 50.0% retracement of the Dec 4 range
• PRICE: $2033.6 @ 05:48 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: $2004.1 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1968.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold traded in a volatile manner Monday. The trend condition is bullish and yesterday’s initial gains reinforce this theme. The precious metal touched a fresh all-time high of $2135.39 and this signals potential for a climb towards 2177.58 next, a Fibonacci projection. Price has since retraced and is trading closer to this week’s low, so far. A short-term pullback is considered corrective - for now. Initial support is $2004.1, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Condition

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.761 - High Dec 4
• PRICE: $25.511 @ 08:01 GMT Dec 5
• SUP 1: $24.064/23.480 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver failed to hold on to Monday’s gains and reversed sharply lower. For now, the move down is considered corrective and the pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The next two key support levels to watch lie at $24.064 and $23.480, the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A break of the 50-day average would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, Monday’s $25.761 high is the bull trigger.