MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Dollar Circling New Multi-Month Low

Price Signal Summary - USD Retreats

In the equity space, bullish conditions continue to prevail. S&P E-minis are trading closer to recent highs and the focus is on 4195.50 next, 1.618 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing.

In the FX world, EURUSD has rallied and importantly cleared 1.1990, Mar 11 high. This reinforces current bullish conditions and opens the 1.21 handle next. GBPUSD is firmer too, narrowing in on 1.40. EURGBP has found resistance at 0.8719, Friday's high. The support to watch is 0.8582, Apr 7 low. USDJPY has traded through 108.41, Mar 23 low and is pressuring the 50-day EMA. A break of the average would open 107.50, trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low

On the commodity front, Gold is firmer. The focus is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. Brent (M1) remains firm. Scope if for a climb towards $69.50 - High Mar 1. WTI (K1) is firmer too with potential for gains towards $64.88, Mar 18 high.

In the FI space, key support to watch in Bunds (M1) remains 170.52, Mar 18 low. A break would signal scope for an extension lower and open 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. Support to watch in Gilts (M1) is 127.81, Apr 14 low. Initial firm resistance is 128.93, Mar 25 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 1.2177 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2131 Bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high
• RES 2: 1.2116 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2072 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2062 @ 05:58 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 1.1946/43 50-day EMA / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

EURUSD rallied yesterday and cleared last week's highs. The pair is firmer again today as bullish conditions continue to dominate, reinforced too by yesterday's confirmed break of the former key short-term resistance at 1.1990, Mar 11 high. Attention is on 1.2116 next, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of 1.2131, a bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high. On the downside, Monday's intraday low of 1.1943 marks initial support.

GBPUSD TECHS: Testing The Former Bull Channel Base

• RES 4: 1.4182 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.4103 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4064 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.4017 High Mar 4
• PRICE: 1.4003 @ 06:09 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 1.3919 High Apr 6
• SUP 2: 1.3810 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 4: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12 and key support

GBPUSD rallied Monday. The pair topped key resistance at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. This markedly strengthens the S/T bullish theme and exposes the former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. The line intersects at 1.4006 and is under pressure as Cable extends this week's rally. Note too resistance at 1.4017, Mar 4 high. A break of this 1.4006/17 zone would signal scope for a stronger climb. Support is at yesterday's low of 1.3810.

EURGBP TECHS: Bears Return

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8791/8821 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8673/8719 High Apr 19 / High Apr 16 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8616 @ 06:15 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 0.8589 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 0.8582 Low Apr 7
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430/8396 Low Feb 27, 2020 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURGBP has pulled away from Friday's high of 0.8719. The inability to remain above the 0.8700 handle is an early indication that the recent corrective bounce is over. Yesterday's sell-off in the cross opens 0.8582, Apr 7 low and exposes the Apr 5 low of 0.8472. Medium-term moving average signals are bearish, in line with the broader downtrend that has dominated since Sep 2020. A break of 0.8719 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Under Pressure

• RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 109.12 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 108.18 @ 06:24 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 107.77 38.2% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally
• SUP 2: 107.57 Trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

USDJPY bearish pressure Monday saw the pair trade below support at 108.41, Mar 23 low and a key short-term level. The break confirms an extension of the current bearish cycle and note, the 50-day EMA at 108.13 is also under pressure. Clearance of the average would suggest scope for weakness towards 107.57, trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low. Initial resistance is at 109.12, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Eyeing The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4, 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.69 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 130.51 @ 06:35 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 129.57 Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: 129.18/15 Trendline drawn off Oct 30 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY is firmer but remains within its recent trading range. The cross has defined an initial support at 129.57, Apr 8 low and note, the 20-day EMA continues to provide support. A clear break of this average would expose the 50-day EMA at 129.15 and a trendline support at 129.18, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. While this key support zone holds, a bull trend remains intact. The trigger for a resumption of gains is 130.69, Apr 7 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Extends Gains

• RES 4: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 0.7833 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 1: 0.7801 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7792 @ 06:42 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 0.7706 Low Feb 14 and 19
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22

AUDUSD maintains a firmer tone following last week's break of 0.7677, Apr 7 high and this week's follow through. Recent gains have also resulted in a break of trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high and note, price is back above the neckline of a recent head and shoulders reversal pattern. Furthermore, an ability to remain above the 50-dma strengthens a bullish case. Initial firm support is at 0.7706, Feb 14 and 19 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2647 High Mar 30 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2576 High Apr 14
• PRICE: 1.2493 @ 06:51 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 1.2471 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

USDCAD is trading closer to recent lows and a bearish threat remains intact. Support at 1.2502, Apr 5 low gave way last week. A resumption of the current bear leg would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and open 1.2365, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. For bulls, a recovery would once again refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 1.2647, Mar 30 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 172.12 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 171.34 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 170.22 @ 05:15 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 170.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 2: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support
• SUP 4: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing

A bearish risk remains present in Bund futures. Yesterday's sell-off resulted in a break of support at 170.52, Mar 18 low. The break of this level strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, opening 170.05 next, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of the key support and bear trigger at 169.24, Feb 24 low. On the upside, firm resistance is at 171.62, Apr 14 high. Initial resistance is at the 20-day EMA at 171.34.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Clears Support

• RES 4: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 135.350 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.180 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 135.079 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.700 @ 05:24 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 134.667 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 2: 134.446 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support
• SUP 4: 134.00 Round number support

Bobl futures traded lower yesterday. The contract has breached support at 134.780, Mar 9 low reinforcing a bearish theme and signalling scope for a deeper sell-off. The focus is on 134.667 and 134.466, Fibonacci retracements of the rally between Feb 26 - Mar 25. Further out, continued weakness would open 134.140, Feb 26 low and the key support. Initial resistance is at 135.079, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Approaching Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 112.112 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.070 @ 05:33 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 112.060 Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures traded lower yesterday and maintains a bearish theme. Support at 112.070, Mar 18 low has been probed and attention turns to 112.060, Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish argument and open 112.053 and 112.026, Fibonacci retracements. For bulls, a break of 112.165 would reinstate a bullish theme. Initial resistance is 112.112, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17 and 18
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 128.93 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 128.55 @ Close Apr 19
• SUP 1: 127.81 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures are unchanged. The underlying downtrend remains intact and short-term gains are still considered corrective. Key near-term resistance levels are at 128.93, Mar 25 high and 129.27, Mar 2 high. A break of the latter level is required to signal a S/T reversal and the potential for stronger gains. On the downside, a breach of support at 127.81, Apr 14 low would reinstate a near-term bearish tone and expose support at 127.32, Apr 1 low.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 148.80 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 147.90 @ Close Apr 19
• SUP 1: 147.69/68 Low Apr 14 and 19 / 76.4% of Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 2: 147.56 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1456.16 Low Sep 21, 2020

BTP futures maintain a bearish tone. The recent break of support at 148.36, Mar 18 low reinforces a bearish theme paving the way for weakness towards 147.56, Mar 5 low. A break of this level would expose the key support and bear trigger at 146.84, Feb 26 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode reinforcing a bearish theme. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 148.80, the 20-day EMA ahead of 149.47, Apr 8 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Fresh Trend High Once Again

• RES 4: 4150.66 High Jan 17, 2008
• RES 3: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
• RES 2: 4047.72 2.236 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 4040.88 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 4019.91 @ Close Apr 19
• SUP 1: 3953.26 Low Apr 6 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3934.72 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3910.90 Low Mar 31
• SUP 4: 3841.46 Low Mar 26

EUROSTOXX 50 maintains a bullish theme and again registered a fresh trend high yesterday, extending the recent break of the psychological 4000.00 level. The recovery from 3784.09, Mar 25 low confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, extending the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The breach of 4000.00 opens 4047.72 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 3953.26, Apr 13 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Heading North

• RES 4: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020
• RES 3: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.50 - High Mar 15
• RES 1: $68.06 - Former trendline support drawn off the Nov 2 low
• PRICE: $67.85 @ 06:59 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $65.95 - Low Apr 15
• SUP 2: $64.76 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $63.88 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: $61.25 - Low Apr 5

Brent crude futures are trading higher once again and a bullish tone remains intact following the recent break of $63.59, Mar 29 high. With short-term momentum studies pointing north, further gains are likely. Initial resistance is at $67.76, Mar 18 high has been probed and further gains would open $69.50, Mar 15 high. On the downside, firm support is at $64.76, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Upside Extension

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $65.23 - Former trendline support drawn off Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 1: $64.88 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $64.08 @ 07:02 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $62.53 - Low Apr 15
• SUP 2: $61.36 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $60.38 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone following last week's breach of $62.27, Mar 30 high and is trading higher today. With short-term momentum studies pointing north, further gains are likely. The next key resistance is $64.88/65.23, the Mar 18 high and a former trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low respectively. A break of this zone would open $66.44, Mar 15 high. Initial support is at $62.53, Apr 15 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: $1818.1 - 50.0% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $1790.1 - High Apr 19
• PRICE: $1769.6 @ 07:19 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $1758.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger

Gold maintains a bullish tone following last week's gains. The yellow metal cleared resistance at $1758.8, Apr 8 high and is trading above the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the break higher last week confirmed a double bottom reversal pattern that had formed since the Mar 8 low. Attention is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1721.4, Apr 5 low. A break would be bearish.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Cycle Intact

• RES 4: $26.941 - 50.0% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 3: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 2: $26.318 - High Mar 19
• RES 1: $26.304 - High Apr 16
• PRICE: $25.936 @ 07:23 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: $24.686 - Low Apr 13 and a key support handle
• SUP 3: $23.781 - Low Mar 31
• SUP 4: $23.524 - Low Dec 7 and key near-term support

Silver short-term bullish conditions remain intact following last week's gains. The metal has breached the 50-day EMA and this places on hold the recent bearish focus. The break higher last week signals scope for gains towards $26.636, Mar 18 high and a key near-term resistance. A break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $24.686, Apr 13 low.