MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Testing Base of Bull Channel

Price Signal Summary – E-mini S&P Testing Base of Bull Channel

• The E-mini S&P contract remains in a downtrend, however, yesterday’s gains highlights an extension of the current bull cycle. The contract is testing a key resistance at 4515.52 - the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher yesterday as the contract extends the corrective recovery from 4187.00, the Aug 18 low. The contract has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA at 4330.7.
• GBPUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows and trend conditions remain bearish following last week’s move lower. This resulted in a break of support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low and the pair has also breached 1.2591, the Jun 29 low. The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact, despite Tuesday’s pullback into the close. Yesterday’s fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. Attention is on 147.49, a Fibonacci projection and the next objective. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and the latest short-term gains are considered corrective. Firm resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 0.6491. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6579.
• The outlook in Gold remains bearish, however, a short-term correction remains in play and the yellow metal has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $1930.6. This strengthens the short-term bull cycle and signals scope for a stronger recovery. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below support at $78.33, the Aug 3 low, however price action has since recovered. Note that a key support also lies at the 50-day EMA.
• A strong rally in Bund futures on Aug 23 resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. That move higher threatens the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery. This has exposed 133.45, the Aug 8 high. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally last week suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. Price is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains reinforcing a short-term bullish theme.

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 1.0898/0930 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.0865 @ 05:37 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 1.0776/66 Channel base drawn from Mar 15 / Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0668 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and a key support

The trend needle in EURUSD points south, however, a key support at 1.0776 remains intact. This marks the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low and represents an important pivot point. A clear channel breakout would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.0733, the Jun 12 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0898, the 20-day EMA. Note that the 50- day EMA is at 1.0930. A clear break these averages would signal scope for a stronger rally.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.2705 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2625 @ 06:02 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 1.2521 1.382 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5

GBPUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows and trend conditions remain bearish following last week’s move lower. This resulted in a break of support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low and the pair has also breached 1.2591, the Jun 29 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and the end of a recent consolidative phase. The focus is on 1.2521, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is unchanged at 1.2705, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8643 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8610 High Aug 29
• PRICE: 0.8602 @ 06:29 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 0.8556 Low Aug 28
• SUP 2: 0.8536/8493 Low Aug 24 / 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8470 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg

EURGBP is holding onto its most recent gains and continues to trade above last week’s low of 0.8493. The contract has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8595. A continuation higher would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and suggest scope for a stronger correction, towards 0.8669, the Aug 11 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend, the bear trigger lies at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 2: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 147.37 High Aug 29
• PRICE: 146.23 @ 06:41 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 145.67/144.88 Low Aug 29 / 20 EMA
• SUP 2: 143.30 Low Aug 10
• SUP 3: 142.99 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 141.52 Low Aug 7

The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact, despite Tuesday’s pullback into the close. Yesterday’s fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. Attention is on 147.49, a Fibonacci projection and the next objective. A break would open 148.40, the Nov 4 2022 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, reflecting current positive market sentiment. Support to watch lies at 144.88, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Trend Highs

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.49 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 158.91 @ 06:51 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 157.88/156.87 20-day EMA / Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 156.29 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.11 Low Jul 31
• SUP 4: 154.50 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 22 rally

The uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent trend highs. Key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, was breached on Aug 10. This confirmed a resumption of the M/T uptrend and sights are on 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. On the downside, support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 156.29.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6589 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6492 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6488 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 0.6476 @ 07:17 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and the latest short-term gains are considered corrective. Firm resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 0.6491. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6579. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, would pave the way for weakness towards 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low. On the upside, clearance of the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a stronger short-term correction.

USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3730 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3640 High Aug 25
• PRICE: 1.3562 @ 07:23 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 1.3510 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 1.3485 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3404 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD traded lower yesterday. This is likely a correction and trend conditions remain bullish. Last week’s gains reinforces the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.3655, May 26 high. A trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high, is at 1.3729 and represents an objective further out. Support lies at 1.3485, the 20-day EMA. A breach of it would signal the start of a correction.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 134.88 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 133.92 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 133.45 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 132.34 @ 05:07 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 131.70/20 Low Aug 28 / 23
• SUP 2: 130.14 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

A strong rally in Bund futures on Aug 23 resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. That move higher threatens the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery. This has exposed 133.45, the Aug 8 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 131.20, the Aug 23 low. A break of this level would instead be seen as a bearish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 116.600 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.340 High Aug 8
• RES 1: 115.920/116.260 High Aug 25 / 24
• PRICE: 115.590 @ 05:23 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 115.360/210 Low Aug 28 / 23
• SUP 2: 114.960 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15
• SUP 4: 114.550 Low Jul 6 and a key support

Bobl futures rallied last week but have retraced from recent highs. The recent climb resulted in a break of both 20- and 50-day EMA values. This highlights a stronger correction and a resumption of gains would signal scope for 116.340, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend and suggest gains are a correction. Support to watch lies at 115.210, the Aug 23 low. A break would reinstate a bearish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 105.325 High Jun 14
• RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.255 High Aug 9
• RES 1: 105.230 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 104.925 @ 05:41 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 104.905/760 Low Aug 23 / 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures rallied on Aug 23 resulting in a move above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery and an extension would expose the next key resistance at 105.295, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend and this suggests recent gains are part of a corrective cycle. Support to watch lies at 104.905, the Aug 23 low. A break would be bearish.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 97.27 76.4% retrace of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 96.19 High Jul 31(cont)
• RES 2: 95.82 High Aug 10 (cont)
• RES 1: 95.11 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 94.65 @ Close Aug 29
• SUP 1: 94.14 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally last week suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. Price is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains reinforcing a short-term bullish theme. An extension higher would open 95.82, the Aug 10 high (cont). Note that trend signals continue to highlight a downtrend. The bear trigger has been defined at 91.47, the Aug 17 low.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Recent Gains Expose Resistance

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 116.12 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 115.44 @ Close Aug 29
• SUP 1: 114.11/112.95 Low Aug 23 / Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.05 1.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - Jul 19 price swing

A strong rally in BTP futures last week resulted in a move above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle. Last week’s gains also resulted in a print above 116.02, the Aug 9 high. A clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension higher. The Aug 23 low of 114.11 marks the first key short-term support. A reversal and break of this level would be a bearish development and expose 112.95, the Jul 11 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Has Traded Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4420.00 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 4388.50 61.8% of the Jul 31 - Aug 18 bear leg
• PRICE: 4351.00 @ 06:02 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 4306.7 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4225.00/4187.00 Low Aug 24 / 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher yesterday as the contract extends the corrective recovery from 4187.00, the Aug 18 low. The contract has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA at 4330.7. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 4420.00. On the downside, a breach of 4187.00 would be a bearish development and confirm a resumption of bearish activity.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Testing Resistance

• RES 4: 4634.50 High Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4593.50 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 4515.52 Former bull channel base drawn from Mar 13
• PRICE: 4508.75 @ 06:51 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 4450.02/4350.00 50-day EMA / Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4305.75 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 4254.62 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle

The E-mini S&P contract remains in a downtrend, however, yesterday’s gains highlights an extension of the current bull cycle. The contract is testing a key resistance at 4515.52 - the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16. A clear break of this level would strengthen the upleg and open 4560.75, Aug 4 high. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 4350.00, the Aug 18 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $85.86/88.10 - High Aug 21 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $85.76 @ 07:00 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: $82.09 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Brent futures traded higher yesterday and the contract remains above recent lows. The 50-day EMA lies at $82.09 and represents an important support. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat. Resistance to watch is $85.86, Aug 21 high. It has been tested, a clear break would be seen as a bullish development and suggest potential for a climb towards $88.10, the Aug 10 high.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.62 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.24 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 1: $81.75/84.16 - High Aug 21 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $81.53 @ 07:04 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: $77.81 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $6972 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below support at $78.33, the Aug 3 low, however price action has since recovered. Note that a key support also lies at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $77.81. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger bear cycle. Price is approaching resistance at $81.75, a break would be a bullish development.

GOLD TECHS: Correction Extends

• RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 2: $1948.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1938.2 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1936.2 @ 05:49 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: $1918.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1903.9/1884.9 - Low Aug 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

The outlook in Gold remains bearish, however, a short-term correction remains in play and the yellow metal has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $1930.6. This strengthens the short-term bull cycle and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Attention turns to $1948.3, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low. A break of this level would signal a resumption of bearish activity.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.149 - High Jul 27
• RES 1: $24.797 - High Aug
• PRICE: $24.591 @ 08:03 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: $23.921/413 - Low Aug 25 / 23
• SUP 2: $22.667 - Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger

Last week’s move higher in Silver highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle and yesterday’s gains reinforces this theme. The metal has cleared $24.550 - the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 14 downleg. This strengthens bullish conditions and a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $25.267, the Jul 20 high and a key resistance. Initial support to watch is $23.413, the Aug 23 low. A break would signal a potential reversal.