MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Remain Above Support

Price Signal Summary - Equities Remain Above Support

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis showed just above the Tuesday high print of 4179.50 late on Friday but have consolidated since. Futures have also tested the 50-day EMA and the average continues to provide support. The recent low of 4029.25 marks the key short-term support. The outlook remains bullish.
• In the FX space, EURUSD continues to the modest, albeit volatile, uptrend and probed key resistance at 1.2243, Feb 25 high last week. An extension of gains would open 1.2285, Jan 8 high. GBPUSD remains bullish. Attention is on 1.4237, Feb 24 high and this year's high. USDJPY support has been defined at 108.34, May 7 low. A bullish theme remains intact while support holds and attention is on 109.79, May 13 high. A break of 108.34 however would highlight a trendline break drawn off the Jan 6 low and risk a deeper pullback.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains bullish. The focus is on $1892.7, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. Oil has entered a corrective cycle. Brent (N1) has breached its 50-day EMA. The focus is on support at $63.93 Apr 26 low. WTI is softer. The focus is on $60.61, Apr 22 low.
• In the FI space, Bunds (M1) traded lower Wednesday and cleared support at 168.59, May 13 low. This confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and opens 168.09, 0.764 projection of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing. Near-term risk in Gilts (M1) is still skewed to the downside. The key support and bear trigger is 126.79, Mar 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2353 High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 2: 1.2285 High Jan 8
• RES 1: 1.2245 High May 19
• PRICE: 1.2185 @ 06:15 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 1.2126 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 1.2052 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2051 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1986 Low May 5 and key short-term support

EURUSD traded lower Friday and remains below recent highs. The outlook remains bullish following last week's gains and high print of 1.2245. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of strength and open 1.2285, Jan 8 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.2052, May 13 low while initial support is at 1.2126, the May 17 low. A break of 1.2052 would signal a top.

GBPUSD TECHS: Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.4407 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 2: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.4234 High May 21
• PRICE: 1.4154 @ 06:24 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 1.4100 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 1.4006/3972 Low May 13 / Low May 10
• SUP 3: 1.3938 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3801 Low May 3 and a key support

The GBPUSD outlook remains bullish. Price action recently cleared a number of resistance levels, reinforcing a positive theme and sights are on resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high. A break would reinforce a bullish case and confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend that started March 2020. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at 1.4006, May 13 low where a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback.

EURGBP TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 0.8785/91 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8646 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8609 @ 06:26 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 0.8561 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8441 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP is consolidating. A bearish theme remains intact though following recent weakness and the low print on May 12 of 0.8561. The move lower saw the cross move out of its recent range. This suggests scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 0.8721, Apr 26 high. Initial resistance is at 0.8649, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Intact

• RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 109.79 High May 13
• PRICE: 108.83 @ 06:30 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 108.34 Low May 7 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

USDJPY maintains a bullish outlook but has recently struggled to hold onto gains. The pair has defined a firm support at 108.34, May 7 low. Attention is on 109.96, Apr 9 high with potential for a climb above 110.00. Note that the recovery May 12 means trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low remains intact The trendline however remains under pressure. A break of 108.34 would signal a reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Still In Charge

• RES 4: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 3: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun-Sep-Oct 2020 swing
• RES 2: 134.18 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 1: 133.44 High May 19
• PRICE: 132.63 @ 06:36 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 132.37 High Apr 29 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 131.69 Low May 12
• SUP 3: 130.99 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.67 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY bulls are still in control although price remains below recent highs. Last week's extension reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for further gains within the rising channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The top of the channel intersects at 134.18. Moving average studies are still pointing north, reinforcing current conditions. Initial firm support lies at 131.69, May 12 low. A firmer trend support is found at 130.99, May 5 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7924 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• PRICE: 0.7736 @ 06:42 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 0.7688 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 0.7675 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.7586 Low Apr 13

AUDUSD traded lower Friday but remains within its recent range. A bearish theme dominates following the recent move lower to 0.7688 on May 13. A firm support zone has been defined at 0.7688-75, the latter is the May 4 low. Clearance of this zone would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7586, the Apr 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7813, May 18 high ahead of the key resistance at 0.7891, May 10 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Trend Intact

• RES 4: 1.2491 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 2: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2203/2288 High May 13 / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2068 @ 06:44 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 1.2013 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
• SUP 4: 1.1858 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD traded lower Friday. The recent key technical development has been the test below major support at 1.2062, Sep 2017 low. This represents an important pivot chart point that either marks the base of a broad range or the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern. A clear break lower would reinforce the current downtrend and open 1.2000 and below. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2203, May 13 high. A breach would ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 171.27 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 170.98 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 169.35/66 High May 17 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 169.27 @ 05:09 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 168.29 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 168.09 0.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 167.52 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 167.42 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Bund futures last week cleared support at 168.59, May 13 low. This confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and reinforces current bearish conditions. The move lower opens 168.09, a Fibonacci projection and 167.42, the lower band of a volatility based indicator. On the upside, initial resistance is at 169.35/66, May 17 high and the 20-day EMA. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure. Gains are considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 135.050 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 135.040 High May 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 134.870 High May 10
• RES 1: 134.510/606 High May 17 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.500 @ 05:16 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 134.180 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 134.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Bobl futures touched a new cycle low of 134.180 on May 19. This reinforced the bearish cycle that started Mar 25 and confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend. It also opens the end-Feb lows next. Support is layered between 134.00-134.14. Clearance of this zone would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Key S/T resistance is at 134.510/606, May 17 high and the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 112.110/120 High May 4, 5, and 6 / High Apr 22
• RES 1: 112.054 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.045 @ 05:15 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 112.000 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 111.940 Low Feb 26 ad key support
• SUP 4: 111.860 Low Apr 15, 2019 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone following the recent sell-off from May 5 marking a resumption of the bearish cycle that started Mar 25. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 112.060, a level that provided support in March and April. This strengthens a bearish case and opens 111.940, Feb 26 low. On the upside, a breach of 112.110 is required to signal a reversal. Gains are considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.09/27 High Apr 23 and the reversal trigger / High Mar 2
• RES 2: 128.80 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 128.08/35 High May 11 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.82 @ Close May 21
• SUP 1: 126.86 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.32 1.0% 10-dma Envelope

The Gilt futures technical outlook remains bearish despite recent gains. The pullback from 128.80, May 7 high reinforced bearish conditions. The move lower resulted in a break of support between 127.40-32, Apr 29 and Apr 1 lows respectively. This exposes the major support at 126.79, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of 126.79 would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial firm resistance is 128.80.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Bounce Likely A Correction

• RES 4: 147.79 High May 4 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 147.33 High May 7
• RES 2: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 146.40 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 145 95 @ Close May 21
• SUP 1: 144.48 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 144.16 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
• SUP 3: 144.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 143.61 Low Jul 13, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures remain in a clear downtrend following last week's extension lower that resulted in a fresh 2021 low of 144.48 on Mar 19. The subsequent bounce is considered corrective. The recent break of 146.84, Feb 26 low confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle from Feb 12. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too, reinforcing current conditions. Attention is on 144.16, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 146.84.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Recent Highs Remain Exposed

• RES 4: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 4036.00 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4026.00 @ 05:51 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 3891.38/3882.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 2: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 3727.00 Low Mar 25

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading just below the May 10 high. A bullish theme remains intact with key support defined at 3844.00, May 13 low. Recent tests of the 50-day EMA have failed to result in a clear break of the average and this reinforces bullish conditions. The EMA represents a key trend support and intersects at 3891.38. A breach of 4036.00, May 10 high would resume the uptrend. Sub 3844.00 levels would signal a top.

E-MINI S&P (M1): Looking For A Break Higher

• RES 4: 4260.37 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4238.25 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4185.00 High May 21
• PRICE: 4162.00 @ 06:03 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 4055.60 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 4029.25 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 4021.00 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 3954.71 100-dma

S&P E-minis traded to a high of 4185.00 last week and this level represents the initial key short-term resistance. A break would signal scope for a climb towards the key resistance and bull trigger at 4238.25, May 10 high. Recent price action has defined a key support at 4029.25, May 13 low where a break is required to signal a short-term top. Note a break lower would also confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA and strengthen a bearish case.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N1) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: $70.24 - High May 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $68.46 - High May 19
• PRICE: $66.86 @ 06:46 BST May 24
• SUP 1: $64.57 - Low May 21
• SUP 2: $63.93 - Low Apr 26 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $62.00 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $60.93 - Low Apr 5

Brent crude traded lower last week. The recent pullback is considered a correction with the underlying uptrend intact. Price has traded below the 50-day EMA and further weakness would signal scope for a deeper pullback. The focus is on support at $63.93 Apr 26 low. Key resistance is $70.24, May 18 high. A move through this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 2: $67.25 - 2.00 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: $65.35/67.02 - High May 19 / High May 18
• PRICE: $64.03 @ 07:01 BST May 24
• SUP 1: $61.56 - Low May 21
• SUP 2: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $58.70 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5

WTI crude has entered a corrective phase and traded lower last week. Price has traded through support at $63.12, May 13 low. This has also resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA. The EMA intersects at $62.37 and a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards $60.55, Apr 22 low. The key resistance zone is $67.02, May 18 high. A breach would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Trading At Recent Highs

• RES 4: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 3: $1917.6 - High Jan 8
• RES 2: $1892.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 1: $1890.1 - High May 19
• PRICE: $1882.8 @ 07:17 BST May 24
• SUP 1: $1852.3/29.2 - Low May 19 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1808.9 - Low May 13
• SUP 3: $1798.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1764.3 - Low Apr 30

Gold traded higher last week, confirming a resumption of the underlying uptrend as the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows extends. Price action has cleared $1851.5, a Fibonacci retracement and 1875.7, the Jan 29 high. Attention is on $1829.7, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1808.9, May 13 low. Initial support is at $1852.3, May 19 low.

SILVER TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $30.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 1: $28.753 - High May 18
• PRICE: $27.657 @ 07:20 BST May 24
• SUP 1: $27.143 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $26.721 - Low Mar 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $26.543 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver remains bullish despite the recent pullback. Price action last week probed $28.609, 76.4% of the sell-off between Feb 1 - Mar 31. That session's high of $28.753 marks a short-term bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for strength towards $29.00 and above. Key short-term support has been defined at $26.721, Mar 13 low. Clearance of this level is required to threaten the trend.