MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Slip, But Remain Above Key Support

Price Signal Summary – Equities Slip, But Remain Above Key Support

• In the equity space, E-Mini S&P technical conditions are bearish however price remains above last Thursday’s 4101.75 low and a corrective bounce extended Friday. S/T momentum studies highlight bullish divergence between price and this still suggests scope for corrective cycle higher. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have started the week on a softer note opening sharply lower today from Friday’s close. Price action is likely to remain volatile, however, from a trend perspective the outlook appears bearish and support remains exposed.
• In FX, EURUSD is trading lower this morning. The pair remains vulnerable following last Thursday’s sell-off that breached support at 1.1280, the Feb 14 low and 1.1209, the 76.4% retracement of the recent Jan 28 - Feb 10 upleg. A GBPUSD bearish threat remains present following last Thursday’s strong selling pressure and sights are on last week’s low of 1.3273. The move lower saw the pair clear support at 1.3487, Feb 15 low and 1.3358, the Jan 27 low and a key support. USDJPY managed to find support last week at 114.41 on Feb 24. This means the 114.16 support remains intact, Feb 2 low. Note that the pair has moved back above the 50-day EMA that intersects at 114.82.
• On the commodity front, volatile price action in Gold last Thursday saw the yellow metal reverse lower from the session high of $1974.3. The outlook is bullish following recent gains. Gold however is back inside its bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low. WTI futures traded higher last Thursday and confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and price is back above its trendline resistance at 166.86. Despite a pullback from last week’s high, price action signals scope for a stronger short-term correction that has opened the 50-day EMA at 168.50. Gilt futures remain inside its recent range. The medium-term trend condition is bearish however the risk of a stronger short-term corrective bounce remains present.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1396/1.1495 High Feb 16 / High Feb 10
• RES 1: 1.1280/1313 Low Feb 14 / Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.1160 @ 06:02 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 1.1106 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Mar ‘21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.0976 2.00 projection of the Jan - Jun - May ‘21 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0871 Low May 25, 2020

EURUSD is trading lower this morning. The pair remains vulnerable following last Thursday’s sell-off that breached support at 1.1280, the Feb 14 low and 1.1209, the 76.4% retracement of the recent Jan 28 - Feb 10 upleg. The break of the latter support has strengthened the bearish threat and also resulted in a probe of support at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low and a bear trigger. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 1.1280, the Feb 14 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.3673/49 200-dma / High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 1.3643/44 High Feb 18 / 10
• RES 1: 1.3487 Low Feb 15 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.3365 @ 06:21 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 1.3273 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3240 Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 1.3174 Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: 1.3163 Low Dec 8 and a key support

A GBPUSD bearish threat remains present following last Thursday’s strong selling pressure and sights are on last week’s low of 1.3273. The move lower saw the pair clear support at 1.3487, Feb 15 low and 1.3358, the Jan 27 low and a key support. 1.3301, 76.4% of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 rally has been probed. A clear break would strengthen the bearish case and open 1.3163, Dec 8 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3487.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Appears Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 3: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• RES 1: 0.8406 High Feb 25
• PRICE: 0.8354 @ 06:29 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 0.8306/8285 Low Feb 24 / Low Feb 3 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.8238 0.764 proj of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 - 7 Price swing

EURGBP key support at 0.8285 remains intact, Feb 3 low. Last week’s recovery from 0.8306, Feb 24 low, suggests the short-term tone remains bullish and if correct, highlights potential for a stronger recovery towards the Feb 7 high of 0.8478. This represents a key short-term resistance. First support lies at 0.8306, whereas a breach of 0.8285 would resume the downtrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.87 High Feb 15
• PRICE: 115.52 @ 06:35 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 114.41 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02
• SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY managed to find support last week at 114.41 on Feb 24. This means the 114.16 support remains intact, Feb 2 low. Note that the pair has moved back above the 50-day EMA that intersects at 114.82. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on the 116.34/35 key resistance. For bears, weakness below 114.41 and more importantly 114.16, would reinforce a bearish threat and expose 113.47, Jan 24 low and a key support.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 133.48 High Oct 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 133.15 High Feb 10 and key resistance
• RES 2: 130.90/131.91 High Feb 21 / High Feb 16
• RES 1: 130.40 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 128.96 @ 06:48 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 127.92 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 127.52 Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: 127.39 Low Dec 3 / 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 126.44 Low Feb 9 2021

EURJPY traded sharply lower Thursday to 127.92, confirming a break of key support at 128.25, the Jan 25 low. Price action is volatile, however, the breach of this support confirms a 100.0% retracement of the recent Jan 25 - Feb 10 bull phase and signals potential for a deeper pullback towards 127.52, Dec 20 low and 127.39, Dec 3 and 6 low. Gains are considered corrective - initial resistance is seen at 130.40, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Intact For Now

• RES 4: 0.7371 High Nov 15, 2021
• RES 3: 0.7331 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7284 High Feb 23
• PRICE: 0.7187 @ 06:55 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 0.7095 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 0.7086/7052 Low Feb 14 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020

AUDUSD failed to hold onto last Wednesday’s high and traded lower Thursday. This leaves the key resistance at 0.7314 intact for now, the Jan 13 high. A deeper pullback would signal potential for a test of support at 0.7086, Feb 14 low that also represents a key short-term support handle. On the upside, clearance of the 0.7284 (Feb 23 high) to 0.7314 zone is required to strengthen the case for bulls.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 1.3009 High Dec 1 2020
• RES 3: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 1.2878 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 1.2783 @ 07:01 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 1.2695/36 50-day EMA / Low Feb 10 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD traded higher Thursday and cleared resistance at 1.2797, the Jan 28 high and a key short-term resistance. The clear breach of this level strengthened bullish conditions and has opened 1.2964, the Dec 20 high and the next key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would significantly strengthen a bullish case. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.2636, Feb 10 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Above Trendline Resistance Once Again

• RES 4: 170.42 High Jan 27
• RES 3: 169.68 50.0% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg
• RES 2: 168.50 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 168.01 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 167.22 @ 05:03 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 165.87/16 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 164.34 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 164.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 163.63 Low Mar, 2019 (cont)

Bund futures maintain a firmer short term tone and price is back above its trendline resistance at 166.86. The trendline is drawn from the Dec 20 high. Despite a pullback from last week’s high, price action signals scope for a stronger short-term correction that has opened the 50-day EMA at 168.50. This EMA represents a key resistance area. Initial firm support to watch is at 165.16, the Feb 22 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) The 50-Day EMA Beckons

• RES 4: 132.680 High Jan 31
• RES 3: 132.400 Low Jan 19
• RES 2: 132.087 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.890 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 131.770 @ 05:08 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 130.730 Low Feb 22 / 23
• SUP 2: 130.510 Low Feb 15
• SUP 3: 130.080 Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.000 Psychological round number

Bobl futures are approaching last week’s high and maintain a firmer short-term tone. Recent gains signal scope for a stronger short-term correction and this has exposed the 50-day EMA at 132.087. This EMA represents a key resistance area and a clear break would strengthen the case for short-term bulls. Initial support to watch is at 130.710, the Feb 22/23 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Correction Extends

• RES 4: 112.145 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 112.070 High Jan 27
• RES 2: 112.020 High Jan 31
• RES 1: 112.005 Intraday high
• PRICE: 111.945 @ 05:12 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 111.635 Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: 111.545/420 Low Feb 15 / Low Feb 11
• SUP 3: 111.250/208 Low Feb 7 / 2.50 proj of Dec 20-Jan 19-24 swing
• SUP 4: 111.185 Low Jun 26, 2015 (cont)

Schatz futures remain in a bullish corrective cycle. Price has traded higher overnight and probed last week’s high of 111.965, the Feb 22 high. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and is above the 50-day EMA. The latter average intersects at 111.868 today and a clear break would signal scope for a stronger rally towards 112.145, Jan 24 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 111.635, the Feb 23 low.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Range Bound For Now

• RES 4: 125.04 1.236 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 124.47 1.00 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 124.00 Round number support
• RES 1: 123.53 High Feb 18 and the near-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 122.64 @ Close Feb 25
• SUP 1: 122.04 Low Feb 23 and a key intraday support
• SUP 2: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 121.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 120.00 Psychological handle

Gilt futures remain inside its recent range. The medium-term trend condition is bearish however the risk of a stronger short-term corrective bounce remains present. Initial resistance to watch is at 123.53, the Feb 18 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the recent recovery from the 121.10 low of Feb 16. This 121.10 level represents a key short-term handle and is the trigger for a resumption of the primary downtrend.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Testing The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 143.46 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 142.55 High Feb 4
• RES 2: 141.14 High Jan 9
• RES 1: 141.04 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 140.20 @ Close Feb 25
• SUP 1: 138.63/06 Low Feb 22 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.60 2.0% 10-dma envelope

BTP futures remain in a downtrend, however, a short-term corrective cycle dominates following last week’s gains. Resistance at 140.33, Feb 18 high, was breached Thursday and this resulted in a print above the 20-day EMA at 140.81. This average represents a key short-term resistance level and a clear break would open 142.55, the Feb 4 high. On the downside, the bear trigger is unchanged at 138.06, Feb 16 low.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4494.53 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4412.50 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4285.00 @ 06:59 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 4101.75 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3990.50 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

E-Mini S&P technical conditions are bearish however price remains above last Thursday’s 4101.75 low and a corrective bounce extended Friday. S/T momentum studies highlight bullish divergence between price and this still suggests scope for corrective cycle higher. Note that Thursday was a hammer candle formation - a reversal signal. The next resistance to watch is 4412.50, the 20-day EMA. Thursday’s low of 4101.75 is the bear trigger.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Volatile And Bearish

• RES 4: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 2: 4113.30/4250.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 4049.50 High Feb 23
• PRICE: 3839.0 @ 05:31 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: 3749.50 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3727.00 Low Mar 25 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3709.60 1.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3663.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have started the week on a softer note opening sharply lower today from Friday’s close. Price action is likely to remain volatile, however, from a trend perspective the outlook appears bearish and support remains exposed. Attention is on 3749.50, the Feb 24 low where a break would confirm a resumption of weakness and this year’s downtrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 4049.50, Feb 23 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J2) Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $110.00 - Round number support
• RES 3: $109-71 - 3.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $108.16 - 3.618 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $105.79 - High Feb 24
• PRICE: $102.50 @ 05:54 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: $96.00 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 2: $93.54 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $90.12 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 4: $88.20 - 50-day EMA

Brent futures remain in an uptrend however for now, price continues to trade below the Feb 24 high of $105.79. Last week’s key technical development was the breach of the psychological barrier at $100.00. This marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards $108.16 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is seen at $96.00, Friday’s low.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Looking To Retest The $100.00 Handle

• RES 4: $105.25 - High Jul 22, 2014 (cont)
• RES 3: $103.28 - 3.50 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $102.01 - 3.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $100.54 - High Feb 24
• PRICE: $96.88 @ 07:05 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.46 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 3: $84.92 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 4: $84.38 - 50-day EMA

WTI futures traded higher last Thursday and confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The $100.00 level has been probed and a clear breach of this psychological barrier would strengthen current trend conditions. This would open 102.01 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support is seen at $90.06, Friday’s low.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish And Eyeing The Bull Channel Top

• RES 4: $1992.5 - High Sep 1 2020
• RES 3: $1980.8 - 2.00 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $1974.3 - High Feb 24
• RES 1: $1940.1 - Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low
• PRICE: $1909.0 @ 06:07 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $1853.9 - High Jan 25
• SUP 3: $1844.7 - Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Volatile price action in Gold last Thursday saw the yellow metal reverse lower from the session high of $1974.3. The outlook is bullish following recent gains. Gold however is back inside its bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low. The channel top intersects at $1940.1 today and represents a key S/T resistance. For bears, a breach of Thursday’s $1878.4 low would suggest the tide has turned and would signal scope for a pullback within the channel.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Despite The Recent Pullback

• RES 4: $26.775 - High Jul 6 2021
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14, 2021
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4, 2021
• RES 1: $25.692/625 - Intraday high / High Feb 24
• PRICE: $24.199 @ 07:26 GMT Feb 28
• SUP 1: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: $23.402 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: $21.949 - Low Jan 7

Silver traded in an extremely volatile manner Thursday, rallying to a high of $25.625 before reversing lower. Despite the pullback, the outlook remains bullish and scope is seen for a continuation higher to retest $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high. This level was probed last week, a clear break would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, initial support lies at $23.850, the Feb 24 low. Dips would be considered corrective.