MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Bull Trend Cemented by Post-Fed Rally

Price Signal Summary – Equity Bull Trend Cemented by Post-Fed Rally

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract traded sharply higher yesterday. Price is firmer again today and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. Note too that the contract has cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract has traded to a fresh trend high today. This confirms, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2547, the 20-day EMA. A sharp sell-off in USDJPY yesterday and a continuation lower today, reinforces current bearish conditions. The pair has breached support at 141.71, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started on Nov 13. The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact. Yesterday’s gains and today’s follow through reinforce this theme. The pair has traded above resistance at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high and a bull trigger.
• Gold traded sharply higher yesterday. This signals a short-term reversal and the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforced this condition. The contract has cleared $68.80, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract is trading higher today. Yesterday’s break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact. Today’s gap higher reinforces this theme and confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend. This also maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Recovery

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1017 High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0948 76.4% retracement of the Nov 29 - Dec 8 downleg
• PRICE: 1.0895 @ 05:53 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 1.0773 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 1.0724 Low Dec 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0693 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.0665 61.8% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally

EURUSD has reversed sharply higher. The recovery is a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Nov 29 - Dec 8. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of key short-term resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Key support has been defined at 1.0724, the Dec 8 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2819 High JAug 10
• RES 3: 1.2800 High Aug 22
• RES 2: 1.2733 High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2678 76.4% retracement of the Nov 29 - Dec 13 correction
• PRICE: 1.2639 @ 06:46 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 1.2547/00 20-day EMA / Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 1.2461 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2374 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 1.2266 Low Nov 14

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2547, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would expose 1.2461, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 0.8725 High Nov 22
• RES 3: 0.8690 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 0.8650 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8630 High Dec 13
• PRICE: 0.8592 @ 06:13 GMT Dec 13
• SUP 1: 0.8549 Low Dec 11
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8413 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The EURGBP trend needle continues to point south and the recent move higher appears to be a correction - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 0.8524, the Sep 5 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8650, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would instead highlight a stronger short-term reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Impulsive Bear Cycle

• RES 4: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 3: 147.02 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 146.59 High Dec 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 142.90 Intraday high
• PRICE: 141.55 @ 06:22 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 140.71 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run
• SUP 2: 140.23 2.00 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 139.11 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28

A sharp sell-off in USDJPY yesterday and a continuation lower today, reinforces current bearish conditions. The pair has breached support at 141.71, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started on Nov 13. Sights are on 140.71, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would further reinforce bearish conditions. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.59, the Dec 11 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 159.49 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 159.12 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 158.67 High Dec 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 157.68 High Dec 8
• PRICE: 154.46 @ 07:17 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 155.68/153.23 Low Dec 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

EURJPY traded sharply lower on Dec 7 and this strengthened a bearish theme. This week’s move lower reinforces the bearish threat and the recent recovery from 153.23, the Dec 7 low is considered corrective. Key short-term resistance to watch is at 158.67, the Dec 7 high. A break would signal a short-term reversal. On the downside, sights are on the bear trigger at 153.23, the Dec 7 low. A break would open 151.42, the Jul 28 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6729 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6709 @ 07:55 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 0.6655 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6542/26 20-day EMA / Low Dec 07
• SUP 3: 0.6509 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6453 Low Nov 17

The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact. Yesterday’s gains and today’s follow through reinforce this theme. The pair has traded above resistance at 0.6691, the Dec 4 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 0.6747 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 0.6526, the Dec 7 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 1.3712 High Nov 24
• RES 1: 1.3619 High Dec 7 and 12 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3476 @ 08:01 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 1.3457 Low Dec 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 3: 1.3401 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

The USDCAD trend outlook is bearish and the recent recovery has been a correction. The pair is trading lower today and has breached support and the bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3417, the Sep 29 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3619, the Dec 7 / 12 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Bullish Price Sequence Extends

• RES 4: 138.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 137.58 3.00 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 137.02 2.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 136.79 Intraday high
• PRICE: 136.58 @ 05:38 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 2: 133.42 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.59 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 132.09 High Nov 17 and a recent breakout point

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract is trading higher today. Yesterday’s break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 137.02, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 134.37, the Dec 8 low. A break is required to signal a short-term top.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 119.320 3.50 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 119.202 3.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 119.056 3.236 proj of the Nov 14 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.000 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 118.920 @ 06:23 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 118.480 High Dec 7 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 117.910 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 117.800 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.239 20-day EMA

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the latest recovery is a positive development. Key short-term resistance at 118.480 has been cleared, Dec 7 high,resuming the uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens the 119.00 handle next and 119.056, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 117.800, the Dec 8 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 1: 106.527 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• PRICE: 106.435 @ 06:46 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 106.290 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 105.955/105.860 Low Dec 13 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 105.640 Low Nov 29

Trend conditions in Schatz futures remain bullish and the latest rally reinforces current conditions. The contract has cleared resistance at 106.290, the Dec 6 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 106.527, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 105.955, the Dec 13 low.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 102.80 2.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 102.48 2.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 102.09 2.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: 101.98 High May 11 (cont)
• PRICE: 101.54 @ 08:15 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 100.20 High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 97.46 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support

The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact. Today’s gap higher reinforces this theme and confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend. This also maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 102.09, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial firm support lies at 98.97, the Dec 6 high and a recent breakout level. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Gaps Higher And Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 119.77 2.236 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 119.02 2.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 118.64 Intraday high
• PRICE: 118.43 @ 07:13 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 117.18 High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 2: 115.70/114.93 Low Dec 8 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114.13 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 112.70 Low Nov 24 and a key support

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play. Today’s gap higher reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract is trading above former resistance at 117.22, the Dec 7 high and a bull trigger. This maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 119.02, a Fibonacci projection, is the next objective. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 115.70, the Dec 8 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4665.50 2.50 proj of the Oct 27 - Nov 3 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg
• RES 2: 4608.00 High Jun 2007 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4589.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4584.00 @ 06:35 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 4522.00/4423.00 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4396.00 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 4329.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4238.00 Low Nov 14

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract has traded to a fresh trend high today. This confirms, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4608.00, the Jun 2007 high and a key resistance. Support to watch is at 4423.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Heading North

• RES 4: 4899.09 1.382 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4862.08 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 2: 4808.25 High Jan 4 2022 and major resistance
• RES 1: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4778.50 @ 06:00 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: 4698.75 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 4617.32 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 4539.38 50-day EMA

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract traded sharply higher yesterday. Price is firmer again today and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. Note too that the contract has cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high, reinforcing current positive trend conditions. This signals scope for a climb towards 4800.00 next. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4617.32, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $78.49/81.38 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $76.66 - High Dec 12 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $74.71 @ 07:01 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: $71.45 - Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $69.86 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: $66.90 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $64.81 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s sell-off reinforces the bear theme. The break lower confirms, once again, a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.45 next, the Jun 23 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $76.66, Tuesday’s high. A break is required to ease bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: $76.97 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $73.48 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $71.96 - High Dec 12
• PRICE: $69.83 @ 07:09 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: $67.28 - Jun 23 low
• SUP 2: $65.00 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.32 - 2.236 proj of the Nov 14 - 16 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Round number support

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforced this condition. The contract has cleared $68.80, the Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on $67.28, the Jun 23 low. Key short-term resistance is at $71.96, the Dec 12 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Reversal

• RES 4: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 1: $2041.3 - High Dec 5
• PRICE: $2034.9 @ 06:29 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13

Gold traded sharply higher yesterday. This signals a short-term reversal and the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb toward key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.39. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary bull trend. Initial firm support lies at $1973.2, yesterday’s low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $24.361/25.761 - 61.8% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg / High Dec 4
• PRICE: $24.065 @ 08:13 GMT Dec 14
• SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver reversed course yesterday highlighting a reversal. The metal is trading higher today reinforcing the developing bullish theme. Note too that yesterday’s price pattern appears to be a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, this highlights potential for a continuation higher near-term. An extension would open $24.519, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance is at $25.761, the Dec 4 high. Key support lies at $22.510, yesterday’s low.