MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Futures Crack Support

Price Signal Summary – Equity Futures Crack Support

• A strong sell-off in S&P E-minis Tuesday resulted in a break below support at 20-day EMA, at 4125.55. This exposes a more important support - the 50-day EMA - that intersects at 4086.99. A clear break of this average would highlight a top and expose 4061.11, a Fibonacci retracement. The Eurostoxx 50 futures contract has pulled back from recent highs. A key short-term support at 4279.90 remains intact. This is the 20-day EMA where a break is required to signal a short-term top and highlight potential for a deeper pullback.
• GBPUSD failed to hold on to Tuesday’s high. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.2398. This average has been pierced and a clear break of it is required to suggest scope for a deeper correction that would open 1.2291, the 50-day EMA. The USDJPY trend needle still points north and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains resulted in a print above former resistance at 134.75, 61.8% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg. This strengthened the current bull cycle and signals scope for a continuation higher towards 135.96. AUDUSD appears vulnerable and continues to trade below its recent highs. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, the Apr 14 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Gold is in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its recent lows. The broader trend condition remains bullish, however, the yellow metal has entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has pierced support at $1988.1, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. The outlook in WTI futures remains bearish. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of $79.04, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart. The continuation lower has seen price breach the 20- and 50-day EMAs, exposing $75.83, the Mar 31 high
• Bund futures reversed course Tuesday and the contract traded sharply higher moving above resistance at the 20-day EMA - at 134.83. A continuation higher would signal scope for gains to 135.85, a Fibonacci retracement and the 136.00 handle. Gilt futures traded higher Tuesday to extend the recent recovery. The move higher is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on resistance at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 102.29. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery and open 102.63.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022 and high Apr 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1067 High Apr 24
• PRICE: 1.0982 @ 05:51 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 1.0930 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0831 Low Apr 10 and the 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0788 Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: 1.0745 Low Mar 27

EURUSD reversed course Tuesday, erasing Monday's gains. A key short-term support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 1.0930 today, remains intact. Trend conditions are bullish and MA studies remain in a bull mode position. The trigger for a resumption of the uptrend is 1.1076, Apr 14 high. A break would open 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection On the downside, clearance of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2692 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2507/2546 High Apr 25 / High Apr 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2426 @ 06:07 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.2291 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2191 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 1.2161 Low Mar 20

GBPUSD failed to hold on to Tuesday’s high. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.2398. This average has been pierced and a clear break of it is required to suggest scope for a deeper correction that would open 1.2291, the 50-day EMA. The primary trend direction remains up and sights are on 1.2546, the Apr 14 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend for 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.9007 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8875 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 0.8837 @ 06:27 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 0.8816/8792 20-day EMA / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 0.8763 Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
• SUP 4: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play despite the failure to hold on to Tuesday’s highs. Recent price action has seen the cross trade above trendline resistance that intersects at 0.8836 - drawn from the Feb 3 high. 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has also been pierced - on Apr 17. A clear break of the trendline and 0.8866 would open 0.8880, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support lies at 0.8792, the Apr 19 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Pierces Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 137.38 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 135.13 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 133.63 @ 06:39 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 133.37 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 132.02 Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: 131.53 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 130.64 Low Apr 5 and a key support

The USDJPY trend needle still points north and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains resulted in a print above former resistance at 134.75, 61.8% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg. This strengthened the current bull cycle and signals scope for a continuation higher towards 135.96 next, the 76.4% retracement point. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 133.51, has been pierced. A clear break would instead expose 132.02, Apr 13 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Engulfing Candle?

• RES 4: 151.00 1.236 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 150.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 149.39 1.00 proj of t4he Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 1: 148.62 High Apr 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 146.86 @ 06:52 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 146.29 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 145.93 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.88 Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: 144.47 50-day EMA

EURJPY initially traded higher Tuesday before reversing course. The recent uptrend remains intact for now and cross continues to trade above the 20-day EMA which intersects at 145.93. A clear break of this average would be seen as a short-term bearish development. Note too that yesterday’s sell-off does appear to be a bearish engulfing candle - a potential warning to bulls. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 148.62, Tuesday’s high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6772/0.6806 High Apr 20 / Apr 14
• PRICE: 0.6633 @ 16:34 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 0.6628/20 Low Apr 15 / 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD appears vulnerable and continues to trade below its recent highs. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, the Apr 14 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is 0.6620, the Apr 10 low. Clearance of this level would represent a bearish development and leave the 0.6565 bear trigger exposed, Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remains In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3727 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3648 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3626 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 1.3617 @ 16:36 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
• SUP 2: 1.3385/3302 Low Apr 19 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support

USDCAD rallied further Tuesday, taking out resistance at both 1.3582 as well as 1.3617. The new weekly high at 1.3626 sits just shy of the next major upside level at 1.3648, the 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 bear leg. This extends the pair’s clearance of 1.3527 resistance - the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens the current bull cycle and opens 1.3805 further out. For bears, a failure to hold above the 50-day EMA would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to the key support at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Strong Bounce

• RES 4: 136.70 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.85 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 135.46 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 135.22 @ 05:12 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 134.41/133.10 High Apr 21 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 132.37 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 132.00 Round number support

Bund futures reversed course Tuesday and the contract traded sharply higher moving above resistance at the 20-day EMA - at 134.83. A continuation higher would signal scope for gains to 135.85, a Fibonacci retracement and the 136.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the Apr 19 low of 133.10. This is the bear trigger and a break would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 118.280 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 3: 118.280 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 118.021 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 1: 117.840 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 117.680 @ 05:28 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 116.720/420 Low Apr 25 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

A strong recovery in Bobl futures Tuesday highlights a potential short-term reversal. The contract has traded above resistance at the 20-day EMA - at 117.414. A continuation higher would signal scope for a move to 118.021, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 118.280, the Apr 12 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.420, the Apr 19 low, where a break would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Find Support

• RES 4: 106.060 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.849 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.665 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 105.590 @ 05:43 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 105.400/165 High Apr 21 / Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

A recovery in Schatz futures Tuesday saw price trade above the 20-day EMA at 105.522. An extension higher would allow for a recovery towards 105.849, a Fibonacci retracement point and potentially highlight a stronger reversal set-up. On the downside, key support has been defined at 105.165, the Apr 24 and 19 low. This level is the bear trigger where a break would resume the recent downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 102.29 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 102.01 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 101.75 @ Close Apr 25
• SUP 1: 100.64/99.73 Low Apr 24 / 19
• SUP 2: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 99.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher Tuesday to extend the recent recovery. The move higher is considered corrective - for now. Attention is on resistance at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 102.29. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery and open 102.63, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 99.73, a break would resume the downtrend.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Gains Appear To Be A Correction - For Now

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• RES 2: 114.94 High Apr 13
• RES 1: 114.34 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 114.18 @ Close Apr 25
• SUP 1: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 2: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.05 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and a key support

BTP futures traded higher Tuesday. For now, the trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. The contract has recently cleared support at 114.04, the Mar 31 low, strengthening a bearish theme. Attention is on 112.89, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, yesterday’s gains result in a print above the 20-day EMA, at 114.26. A clear break would signal scope for a stronger recovery instead and open 114.94, the Apr 13 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 4310.00 @ 06:05 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 4309.00 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 4279.90 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4202.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4175.00 Low Mar 30

The Eurostoxx 50 futures contract has pulled back from recent highs. A key short-term support at 4279.90 remains intact. This is the 20-day EMA where a break is required to signal a short-term top and highlight potential for a deeper pullback - towards 4202.40, the 50-day EMA. Trend conditions remain bullish for now and attention is on the bull trigger at 4363.00, the Apr 21 high. A break would open 4381.50, Jan 5 2022 high (cont).

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Sell-Off Exposes Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4198.25/205.50 High Apr 18 and key resistance / High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4164.25 High Apr 24
• PRICE: 4114.75 @ 06:50 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: 4086.99 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4061.11 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 18 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4018.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 18 bull leg

A strong sell-off in S&P E-minis Tuesday resulted in a break below support at 20-day EMA, at 4125.55. This exposes a more important support - the 50-day EMA - that intersects at 4086.99. A clear break of this average would highlight a top and expose 4061.11, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 4164.25, the Apr 24 high. A breach of this level would ease the developing bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Remains Vulnerable Despite A Bounce

• RES 4: $90.46 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.49 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $83.06/85.15 - High Apr 25 / 19
• PRICE: $81.29 @ 06:54 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $78.77 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 bull run
• SUP 3: $77.18 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: $74.39 - Low Mar 27

Brent futures remain vulnerable following last week’s sell-off and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at $83.50, the Apr 3 low, and price has also breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a move to $79.95, the Mar 31 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Key resistance has been defined at $87.49, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the recent bull run.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $86.40 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 3: $85.54 - High Nov 8 2022
• RES 2: $83.38 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• PRICE: $77.74 @ 07:07 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $75.83 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $73.98 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $69.13 - Low Mar 27

The outlook in WTI futures remains bearish. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of $79.04, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart. The continuation lower has seen price breach the 20- and 50-day EMAs, exposing $75.83, the Mar 31 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $83.38, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the recent uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 1: $2015.1/2048.7 - High Apr 17 / High Apr 13 and bull trigger
• PRICE: $1996.2 @ 07:13 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $1969.3 - Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: $1946.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold is in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its recent lows. The broader trend condition remains bullish, however, the yellow metal has entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has pierced support at $1988.1, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. This has opened $1949.7, Apr 3 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $2048.7, the Apr 5 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SILVER TECHS: Pierces Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.001 @ 07:21 BST Apr 26
• SUP 1: $24.492 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $23.706 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains in an uptrend and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. The break, on Apr 4, of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. This opens $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support to watch is seen at $24.691, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.