MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Space Remains Vulnerable

Price Signal Summary - Equity Space Remains Vulnerable

• S&P E-Minis reversed course last Thursday having failed to clear resistance 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. The move lower reinforces underlying bearish conditions - the trend direction remains down. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode. The contract has traded through former support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low to highlight a resumption of the current bear cycle.
• EURUSD remains inside its recent range and the outlook remains bearish. The failure to hold on to recent gains highlights a shallow correction and the current consolidation appears to be a bear flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. GBPUSD is trading at its recent lows. A bearish risk remains present following Thursday’s sharp sell-off. Last week's breach of 1.2412, Apr 28 low, confirms a recent shallow correction and a bear flag breakout on the daily frequency. USDJPY bullish conditions remain in place. The pair is firmer and is approaching the next bull trigger at 131.25 the Apr 28 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 131.96, a Fibonacci projection.
• Recent gains in Gold are considered corrective and the yellow metal remains vulnerable. Price has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA and continues to trade below this average. WTI futures maintain a bullish tone. Price has recently broken out of its triangle - to the upside - and this strengthens the short-term condition for bulls. Resistance at $109.20, the Apr 18 high, has been cleared.
• Trend signals in Bund futures continue to point south and fresh cycle lows on Friday reinforce this condition. The move lower confirms, once again, a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The Gilt futures trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies continue to point south and the dominant bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.0936 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.0681/0758 20-day EMA / Low Apr 14 - recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.0655 High Apr 27
• PRICE: 1.0508 @ 06:15 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 1.0472/54 Low Apr 28 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 1 2017
• SUP 2: 1.0390 Low Jan 4 2017
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD remains inside its recent range and the outlook remains bearish. The failure to hold on to recent gains highlights a shallow correction and the current consolidation appears to be a bear flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting the current downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 1.0454, the Feb 22 2017 low. Watch resistance at 1.0681, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 1.2877 High Apr 25
• RES 2: 1.2705/72 20-day EMA / High Apr 26
• RES 1: 1.2380/2638 High May 6 / High May 4
• PRICE: 1.2275 @ 06:23 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 1.2252 Low Jun 29 2020
• SUP 2: 1.2200 Round number support
• SUP 3: 1.2162 Low May 22 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2081 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend

GBPUSD is trading at its recent lows. A bearish risk remains present following Thursday’s sharp sell-off. Last week's breach of 1.2412, Apr 28 low, confirms a recent shallow correction and a bear flag breakout on the daily frequency. The move also confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 1.2252 next, the Jun 29 2020 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2638, the May 4 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Oct 1 2021
• RES 3: 0.8610 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2021
• RES 1: 0.8591 High May 6
• PRICE: 0.8561 @ 06:28 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 0.8468 High Apr 27 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 0.8386/67 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 3: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and a key support

The EURGBP outlook remains bullish and the cross traded higher again on Friday, resulting in new multi-month highs of 0.8591. Last week’s gains reinforce a bullish theme and mark an extension of the rally that started from 0.8250, the Apr 14 low. This signals scope for a climb towards the 0.8600 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 0.8367, the May 2 low. Initial support is seen at 0.8468.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 133.11 High Apr 4 2002
• RES 3: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 2: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 131.25 High Apr 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 131.06 @ 06:35 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 128.01 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 126.95 Low Apr 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY bullish conditions remain in place. The pair is firmer and is approaching the next bull trigger at 131.25 the Apr 28 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 131.96, a Fibonacci projection. This would also maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Key support has been defined at 126.95, Apr 27 low. A break would signal a reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.94 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: 138.16/140.00 High May 6 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 137.66 @ 06:52 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 136.52/134.79 Low May 2 / Low Apr 27
• SUP 2: 134.67/30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 132.95 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 132.33 Low Mar 23

EURJPY continues to consolidate. The recent pullback is considered corrective and the current trend direction is up. Key support highlighted by the 50-day EMA, remains intact. The average intersects at 134.79, just above an important support at 134.30, Apr 5 low. While these supports hold, trend conditions remain bullish. The bull trigger is unchanged at 140.00, the Apr 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Starting The Week On A Bearish Note

• RES 4: 0.7379 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 0.7292 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7135 High May 6
• PRICE: 0.7008 @ 05:35 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 0.6985 Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: 0.6968 Low Jan 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6921 Low Jul 14 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6876 0.618 proj of the Apr 5 - May 2 - 4 price swing

AUDUSD has started the week on a bearish note and has resumed its current downtrend. The failure last week at 0.7266, high May 4/5 and the sharp reversal from this level reinforces a bearish theme. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on the next key support at 0.6968, the Jan 28 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.7266.

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Trigger Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3078 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3029 High Nov 25 2020
• RES 2: 1.2964 High Dec 20 2021 and a key bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2964 High Dec 20 2021 and a key bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2945 @ 07:04 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 1.2814 Low May 6
• SUP 2: 1.2714/2688 Low Apr 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21

USDCAD is trading higher today and has cleared resistance at 1.2914, the May 2 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and exposes key resistance at 1.2964, the Dec 20 2021 high and a bull trigger. A break would be seen as an important medium-term bullish technical development. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 1.2714, the May 5 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Fresh Cycle Low Once Again

• RES 4: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 157.74 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 156.00 High Apr 28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1152.74/154.54 High May 6 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 151.14@ 05:11 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 150.81 Low May 6
• SUP 2: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 149.49 Low Jul 13 2015 (cont)

Trend signals in Bund futures continue to point south and fresh cycle lows on Friday reinforce this condition. The move lower confirms, once again, a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode. Attention is on 150.15 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 156.00, the Apr 28 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Fresh Cycle Lows

• RES 4: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 3: 128.830 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 128.310 High Apr 14/28 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 127.548 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 126.260 @ 05:30 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 126.010 Low May 6
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower Friday. Fresh cycle lows once again reinforce the primary downtrend, maintaining the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving averages continue to point south, highlighting current sentiment. The break lower signal scope for weakness towards 125.450 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 110.796 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 110.540 High Apr 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.364 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.055 @ 05:14 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 109.940 Low May 6
• SUP 2: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 109.555 Low Oct 31 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 109.340 Low Oct 28 011 (cont)

The trend direction in Schatz futures remains down. Last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. The move lower confirms a continuation of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode. The focus is on 109.977 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is 110.540, the Apr 28 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Is Pointing South

• RES 4: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 120.96 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 120.34 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 119.79 High Apr 25 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 117.57 @ Close May 6
• SUP 1: 117.22 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The Gilt futures trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies continue to point south and the dominant bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. A firm resistance has been defined at 119.79, Apr 26 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Attention is on the 117.22 bear trigger. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Southbound

• RES 4: 135.97 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 2: 131.60/133.53 20-day EMA / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 130.03 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 126.38 @ Close May 6
• SUP 1: 125.88 2.236 proj of the Mar 31 - Feb 16 - Mar 1 price swing
• SUP 2: 125.02 1.236 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.02 Low Mar 18 2020 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 123.41 1.382 proj of the of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bearish - another round of weakness Friday resulted in a fresh cycle low print. This maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too and the focus is on 125.88 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 133.53, the Apr 28 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Clears Support

• RES 4: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3775.00/3883.00 High Jun 5 / High Apr 21
• RES 1: 3714.20 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3560.00 @ 05:45 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 3544.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3523.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3400.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode. The contract has traded through fromer support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low to highlight a resumption of the current bear cycle. This sets the scene for an extension lower and opens 3523.00 next, the Mar 11 low and 3458.90, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at 3775.00, Jun 5 high. A break of this level would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Eyeing Support

• RES 4: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 3: 4509.00 High Apr 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 4356.65 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28
• PRICE: 4073.00 @ 06:57 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 4056.00 Low May 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4029.25 High May 13 2021
• SUP 3: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 3958.00 2.00 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis reversed course last Thursday having failed to clear resistance 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. The move lower reinforces underlying bearish conditions - the trend direction remains down. Attention is on the May 2 low of 4056.00 where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a sell-off towards the 4000.00 handle. A break of 4303.50 is required to alter the short-term picture.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N2) Maintains A Bullish Tone

• RES 4: $123.44 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $121.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $115.76 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $114.00 - High May 5
• PRICE: $112.05 @ 07:02 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $107.13 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $103.10/99.25 - Low May 2 / Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $97.18 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $92.59 - Low Mar 15 and a key support

Brent futures maintain a bullish tone. The contract last week, traded above triangle resistance at 111.86. The pattern is drawn from the Mar 15 low. The break higher signals scope for a stronger recovery and resistance at 113.61, Apr 18 high has been probed. A clear break would open $115.76, the Mar 24 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $103.10, a break would be seen as a bearish development.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Bullish Following Last Week’s Triangle Breakout

• RES 4: $119.95 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $111.37 - High May 5
• PRICE: $109.32 @ 07:13 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $104.05 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $100.28/95.28 - Low May 2 / Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone. Price has recently broken out of its triangle - to the upside - and this strengthens the short-term condition for bulls. Resistance at $109.20, the Apr 18 high, has been cleared. The breach signals scope for a continuation higher and opens $113.51, the Mar 24 high. Initial firm support lies at $100.28, the May 2 low. A break of this support would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: $2009.2 - High Mar 10
• RES 3: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $1958.4 - High Apr 20
• RES 1: $1909.8/1919.9 - High May 5 / High Apr 29
• PRICE: $1874.4 @ 07:19 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $1850.5 - Low May 3
• SUP 2: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28

Recent gains in Gold are considered corrective and the yellow metal remains vulnerable. Price has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA and continues to trade below this average. Furthermore, the pullback from $1998.4 (Apr 18 high), continues to highlight a bearish threat. The focus is on $1848.8, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, $1909.8, the May 5 high, is seen as the initial resistance.

SILVER TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 3: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $23.640/24.142 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.123 @ 07:57 BST May 9
• SUP 1: $22.104 - Low May 6
• SUP 2: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $21.949 - Low Jan 7 2022
• SUP 4: $21.427 - Low Dec 15

Silver remains bearish following the recent reversal from $26.222, Apr 18 high. last week’s fresh lows have reinforced bearish conditions. Support at $23.974, Mar 29 low and $23.173, 76.4% of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally, have recently been cleared. The clear break of the latter has opened $22.008, the Feb 3 low and the next key support. The 50-day EMA, at $24.142 marks a firm resistance. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.