MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Uptrend Intact

Price Signal Summary - Another ATH In S&P E-Minis

• On the equity front, S&P E-minis outlook remains bullish. The contract traded to a fresh all-time high again in early trade, touching 4542.25 to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on 4542.58, 1.236 projection of the Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 key support has been defined at 4078.00, Aug 19 low. The outlook is bullish while this level holds.
• In the FX space, the USD remains in an uptrend and recent weakness is still considered corrective. The recent move below 1.1704, Mar 31 low in EURUSD opens 1.1621 next, 1.00 projection of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing. Resistance at 1.1805, Aug 13 high has been topped to open 1.1829, the 50-day EMA. GBPUSD remains vulnerable despite last week's bounce. The focus is on the bear trigger at 1.3572, Jul 20 low. The Aug 20 price pattern in USDCAD was a bearish shooting star candle and the Aug 23 weak close reinforces the current bearish theme An extension would expose 1.2526, the 50-day EMA.
• On the commodity front, Gold maintains a bullish tone following last week's breach of the 50-day EMA. The break signals scope for a climb towards $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. WTI futures support has been defined at $61.74, Aug 23 low and conditions remain bullish. Further gains would open $70.74, 76.4% retracement of the Jul 30 - Aug 23 sell-off. Support is seen at $66.92, the Aug 25 low.
• In FI, Bunds support at 176.21, Aug 11 low was cleared on Aug 25, highlighting a short-term bearish theme. The focus is on 175.41, the 50-day EMA. Gilt futures appear vulnerable following recent weakness. An extension lower would open 128.03, Jul 6 low (cont).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Climb Extends

• RES 4: 1.1965 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1945 High Jun 28
• RES 2: 1.1909 High Jul 30 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1828 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1817 @ 05:57 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 1.1735/1664 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1495 High Mar 9, 2020

EURUSD continues to trade higher and has cleared former resistance at 1.1805, Aug 13 high. Although current gains are considered corrective, the pair maintains a short-term bullish theme and appears likely to extend its climb. The 50-day EMA intersects at 1.1828, a break of this resistance area would open 1.1909, the Jul 30 high. Initial support lies at 1.1735, Aug 27 low while the key support and bear trigger is 1.1664, Aug 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3916 High Aug 9
• RES 2: 1.3829 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3786 High Aug 18
• PRICE: 1.3784@ 06:04 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 1.3680/02 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.3452 Low, Jan 11

GBPUSD is holding onto recent gains. Despite the recent rally, the pair maintains a bearish theme. This follows the sell-off between Jul 30 and Aug 20. Price remains below its 50-day EMA and attention is on key support at 1.3572, Jul 20 low. For bulls, a convincing recovery back above the 50-day EMA at 1.3829 is required to ease the current bearish pressure. Initial resistance is at 1.3786, Aug 18 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8618 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8589/94 100-dma / High Aug 23
• PRICE: 0.8574 @ 06:07 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 0.8545 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8506 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10 and a key support

EURGBP is trading closer to recent highs. On Aug 19, the cross breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs signalling scope for further gains near-term. Attention is on the 100-dma next at 0.8589 that was briefly probed on Aug 23. Gains are still considered corrective though and from a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish. A return lower and a break of support at 0.8506, Aug 19 low would signal a resumption of bearish pressure.

USDJPY TECHS: In A Range

• RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.27/46 High Aug 27 / High Aug 13
• PRICE: 109.87 @ 06:20 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 109.41 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 109.11/108.72 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY is unchanged and still range bound. Despite recent gains, the pair appears vulnerable and attention remains on the key support at 108.72, Aug 4 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and expose the 108.47 Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key near-term resistance is unchanged at 110.80, Aug 11 high. A break would ease bearish concerns and instead open key resistance at 111.66, Jul 2 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching It's 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 131.77 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 130.56 High Jul 29
• RES 1: 129.96 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.86 @ 06:28 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 129.16 Low Aug 27
• SUP 2: 128.60 Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: 127.94 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 127.88 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally

EURJPY trend conditions remain bearish. From a short-term perspective however the cross remains in a bullish corrective cycle and is trading higher. Further gains would open 129.96, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, key support has been defined at 127.94, Aug 19 low and also represents the bear trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Higher

• RES 4: 0.7487 High Jul 15
• RES 3: 0.7427 High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7388/89 50-day EMA / High Aug 11
• RES 1: 0.7341 High Aug 17
• PRICE: 0.7325 @ 06:37 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 0.7222/7106 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend
• SUP 3: 0.6991 Low Nov 2, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020

AUDUSD maintains a firmer tone and has traded above the 20-day EMA. Recent gains are still considered corrective though. The breach of 0.7290 on Aug 17 confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing a downward cycle. Price has also cleared 0.7200 and this opens 0.7053 further out, a Fibonacci retracement. The next firm resistance is seen at 0.7388/89, the 50-day EMA and the Aug 11 high.

USDCAD TECHS: 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2834/ 2949 High Aug 23 / High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2708 High Aug 27
• PRICE: 1.2586 @ 06:41 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 1.2574 Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: 1.2529 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low
• SUP 4: 1.2303 Low Jul 6

USDCAD traded sharply lower Aug 23 and maintains a bearish short-term tone. From a pattern perspective, activity on Aug 20 was a bearish reversal shooting star candle. The Aug 23 sell-off and particularly the weak close, reinforced the candle pattern and highlights a short-term bearish theme. Attention is on 1.2529, the 50-day EMA and a key support. Key resistance has been defined at 1.2949.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 177.69 1.764 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 3: 177.61 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 177.24 High Aug 17 and 19
• RES 1: 176.87 High Aug 25
• PRICE: 176.39 @ 04:56 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 175.66 Low Aug 27
• SUP 2: 175.45 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 175.04 Trendline support drawn from the May 19 low
• SUP 4: 174.64 50.0% retracement of the Jul 22 - Aug 5 rally

Bund futures are firmer but remain vulnerable. The contract traded sharply lower on Aug 25 and moved below its 20-day EMA and support at 176.21, Aug 11 low. This suggests scope for a deeper short-term corrective pullback with attention still on the 50-day EMA at 175.45. On the upside, price would need to move above the Aug 25 high of 176.87 to ease the current bearish threat. This would open 177.24, the Aug 17 and 19 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 135.700 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 4: 135.640 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 135.430 High Aug 20 a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.340 Aug 25 high
• PRICE: 135.240 @ 05:16 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 135.040 Low Aug 27
• SUP 2: 134.984 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.710 High Aug 7
• SUP 4: 134.640 Trendline support drawn from the May 20 low

Bobl futures traded lower Aug 25. This resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and support at 135.140, the Aug 13 low. Despite the most recent gains, the move lower signals potential for a deeper corrective pullback and opens the 50-day EMA that intersects at 134.984. On the upside, initial key resistance has been defined at 135.430, Aug 20 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme and open 135.640, Aug 5 high and the bull trigger.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Bearish Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 112.425 2.618 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 3: 112.415 High Aug 05 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 112.390 High Aug 6:
• RES 1: 112.330/350 High Aug 25 / High Aug 20 and key resistance
• PRICE: 112.320 @ 05:20 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 112.295 Low Aug 13, 16, 26 and 30
• SUP 2: 112.285 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 112.245 Low Jul 21
• SUP 4: 112.210 Low Jul 20

Schatz futures near-term outlook remains bearish. The contract last week traded below its 20-day EMA exposing and testing support at 112.295, Aug 13 and 16 low. The 50-day EMA, intersects at 112.285. A clear break of the average is required to suggest scope for a deeper short-term pullback. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been refined at 112.350, Aug 20 high where a break is needed to ease the current bearish risk.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 130.72 High Aug 4 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 130.53 High Aug 5 (cont)
• RES 2: 129.35 High Aug 20 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 129.09 High Aug 25
• PRICE: 128.65 @ Close Aug 27
• SUP 1: 128.24 Low Aug 12
• SUP 2: 128.03 Low Jul 6 (cont)
• SUP 3: 127.50 Low Jun 28 (cont)
• SUP 4: 127.25 Low Jun 23 (cont)

Gilt futures last week probed initial support at 128.33, the Aug 12 low. A clear break of this level would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 128.03 (cont), the Jul 6 low.Clearance of this support would strengthen a bearish case and note that it would also highlight a move below the 50-day EMA on the continuation chart. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 129.35.

BTP TECHS: (U1) 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 157.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 155.43 High Aug 13
• RES 2: 155.11 High Aug 25
• RES 1: 154.55/95 High Aug 30 / Former channel from May 19 low
• PRICE: 154.44 @ Close Aug 30
• SUP 1: 153.66/53 50-day EMA / Low Aug 26
• SUP 2: 153.14 Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: 152.84 50.0% retracement of the May 25 - Aug 5 rally
• SUP 4: 152.66 Low Jul 15

BTP futures last week cleared a key support at 154.54 marking the base of a bull channel drawn off the May 19 low. The bearish breakout signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback and attention is on the 50-day EMA at 153.66. A clear break of the average would suggest scope for further near-term weakness. Initial firm resistance is at the former channel base - at 154.95 today.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4255.34 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 4238.50 High Aug 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 42005.50 High Aug 18
• PRICE: 4201.50 @ 05:42 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 4138.50 Low Aug 26
• SUP 2: 4078.00 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4026.20 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 13 rally
• SUP 4: 3944.00 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions are unchanged and remain bullish. Gains since Aug 19 suggest the sell-off between Aug 13 - 19 was a correction and that this correction is over. A key support has been defined at 4078.00, Aug 19 low. While it holds, scope is seen for an extension higher and a retest of 4238.50, the Aug 13 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 4078.00 would instead reinstate a bearish theme.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Fresh All-Time Highs Once Again

• RES 4: 4610.63 1.50 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4580.21 1.382 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4542.58 1.236 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4539.75 @ 06:52 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 4449.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4378.39 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4347.75 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis outlook remains bullish and the contract is trading higher again today, registering a fresh all-time high. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract's recent recovery from 4347.75, Aug 19 low means the 50-day EMA remains intact and this reinforces bullish conditions. The average intersects at 4378.39 and represents a key area of support. A clear break of this average is required to signal a short-term reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V1) Approaching Its Bear Channel Top

• RES 4: $75.92 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $75.65 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $74.24 - Bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high
• RES 1: $73.69 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $73.37 @ 06:51 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $70.85/$68.53 - 20-day EMA / Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: $64.60 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 3: $63.89 - Low May 21 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.43 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing

Brent futures remain bullish and traded higher once again yesterday. The recovery last week has defined a key short-term support at $64.60, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Further gains would open $74.31, a bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. Clearance of this channel top would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, initial support is at $70.85, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: $72.06 - Bear channel top drawn from the Jul 6 high
• RES 3: $71.29 - High Aug 3
• RES 2: $70.74 - 764.% retracement of the Jul 30 - Aug 23 sell-off
• RES 1: $69.64 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $69.19 @ 07:03 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $66.92/65.41 - Low Aug 25 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: $61.74 - Low Aug 23 and key support
• SUP 3: $60.81 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4:$60.68 - Low May 21

WTI futures remain bullish and traded to a fresh high once again yesterday. The recovery from the Aug 23 low has defined a key short-term support at $61.74, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Short-term, further gains are likely and the focus is on $70.74, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support lies at $66.92, the Aug 25 low. A break would be seen as an initial bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1823.3 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $1817.2 @ 07:18 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $1774.5 - Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 3: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 4: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger

Gold maintains a bullish tone. The yellow metal traded higher yesterday and remains above its 50-day EMA. The recent break above the average confirms a resumption of the upleg that started Aug 9. This signals scope for a climb towards resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, initial support has been defined at $1774.5, Aug 19 low. A move below this support would be bearish and signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Correction Extends

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 04 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $24.832 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $24.375 - High Aug 9
• PRICE: $24.172 @ 07:21 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $22.626 - Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $20.871 - 50% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 rally
• SUP 4: $20.000 - Psychological round number

Silver traded higher again yesterday. Despite recent gains, the metal remains vulnerable. Moving average conditions continue to highlight a bearish theme and note too that price action since Aug 9 still appears to be a flag - a bearish formation. A break and close below the Aug 9 low of $22.626 would confirm a resumption of bearish pressure and open a key Fibonacci support at 20.871, 50% of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 range. $24.375 marks the next resistance.