MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EStoxx50 Clears Bull Trigger

Price Signal Summary – EStoxx50 Clears Bull Trigger

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday but failed to hold on to the session high and closed at the day low. Key resistance at 3917.35, the 50-day EMA, has been breached. A continuation higher and a clear break of this EMA would suggest potential for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal that would open 4000.00 next. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Monday, extending the recent climb. The contract has cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. The clear breach of this hurdle represents a key short-term bullish development and paves the way for gains towards the 4100.00 handle.
• USDJPY remains below Friday’s high of 134.77. The pullback and weak close on Friday, reinforces a bearish theme and suggests that recent gains have been a correction. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a broader downtrend. AUDUSD traded higher Monday, extending Friday’s rally to reinforce the current bullish condition. The pair has cleared 0.6893, Dec 13 high and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 13. USDCAD traded lower Monday and the short-term outlook remains bearish. The move lower has resulted in a breach of key support at the 1.3385 level - the Dec 5 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3317, the Nov 24 / 25 low.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Monday, starting the week on a firm note and extending the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position. WTI futures failed to hold on to yesterday’s gains. A bearish theme remains intact following the sell-off on Jan 3 and 4. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $70.31, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and maintain a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend following the recovery from 99.18, the Dec 28 low. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and sights are set on 103.12, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 1.0851 High Apr 25, 2022
• RES 3: 1.0846 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.0787 High May 30 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0761 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 1.0743 @ 05:39 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.0599 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0486/84 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band / Low Jan 6
• SUP 3: 1.0448 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0394 Low Dec 1

A strong recovery extended Monday in EURUSD, confirming the end of the recent corrective pullback. The bull trigger at the Dec 15 high at 1.0735, has been cleared and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position. The focus is on 1.0787, the May 30, 2022 high. Key support has been defined at 1.0484, the Jan 6 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Action

• RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2446 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2242/2303 High Dec 19 / 76.4% of Dec 14 - Jan 6 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2210 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 1.2173 @ 05:57 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.2071 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1966/23 50-day EMA / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21

GBPUSD traded higher Monday, adding to Friday’s strong bounce. The recovery from Friday’s low of 1.1842 highlighted an early reversal and yesterday’s follow through reinforces the signal that highlights the end of the recent bear cycle between Dec 14 - Jan 6. MA studies are in a bull-mode position and this suggests that the medium-term trend direction is up. Sights are on 1.2242 next, Dec 19 high. Key support is at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8877 High Dec 30
• PRICE: 0.8824 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 0.8769 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.8731 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8646 High Dec 8
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15

EURGBP is consolidating and the cross remains below its Dec 30 high of 0.8877. The outlook is bullish and last month's break of 0.8829, the Nov 9 high, reinforced this theme. This opens 0.8907 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note too that moving average studies highlight a bullish backdrop, reinforcing the current trend direction. Initial firm support is seen at 0.8731, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Is Bearish

• RES 4: 137.48 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 136.52 200-dma
• RES 2: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan Downleg
• RES 1: 133.55 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.99 @ 06:31 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 131.31 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.44 1.236 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 127.53 Low May 31

USDJPY remains below Friday’s high of 134.77. The pullback and weak close on Friday, reinforces a bearish theme and suggests that recent gains have been a correction. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a broader downtrend. The key support and trigger for a resumption of the trend is 129.52, Jan 3 low. Initial key short-term resistance has been defined at 134.77.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 142.94 High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 142.59 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 141.92 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 141.55 @ 06:43 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 139.97/139.37 Low Jan 5 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.09 Low Aug 26

EURJPY traded higher Monday and remains above the early January low of 137.39. Near-term strength is deemed corrective while key resistance at 142.94 remains intact - the Dec 28 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 137.39, Jan 3 low, where a break would resume the 2-month downtrend. This would open 137.03, the Aug 29 low. For bulls, clearance of 142.94 would signal a reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 0.7059 2.236 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7009 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• PRICE: 0.6901 @ 06:55 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 0.6871 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.6775 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.6650 Low Dec 22

AUDUSD traded higher Monday, extending Friday’s rally to reinforce the current bullish condition. The pair has cleared 0.6893, Dec 13 high and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 13. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Gains open 0.6976 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 0.6688, Jan 3 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Leg Extension

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3529 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3401 @ 07:57 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.3357 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 1.3317 Low Nov 24 / 25
• SUP 3: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD traded lower Monday and the short-term outlook remains bearish. The move lower has resulted in a breach of key support at the 1.3385 level - the Dec 5 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3317, the Nov 24 / 25 low. The bear trigger lies at 1.3226, the Nov 15 low. On the upside, key resistance is far-off at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3529, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 138.97 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 138.62 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 137.76 50.0% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 3 bear leg
• PRICE: 136.77 @ 05:09 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 135.74 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 135.08 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.79 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 132.60 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger

Bund futures remain in an uptrend following last week’s gains and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and short-term signals suggest scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 137.76 next and if this level is cleared, it would open 138.97 further out - Fibonacci retracement levels. On the downside, initial firm support is at 135.08, the Jan 4 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 118.427 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.895 50.0% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 1: 117.630 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 117.290 @ 05:00 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 116.740 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 116.540 Low Jan 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 116.030 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 115.640 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures are trading closer to last week’s highs and a bullish tone remains intact. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and this break strengthens the current bull cycle, signalling potential for an extension higher near-term. Attention is on 117.895 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The current bull cycle is considered corrective. Initial firm support to watch lies at 116.540, the Jan 4 low. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Trading Ahead Of The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 106.118 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.939 38.2% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.834 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.715 @ 05:25 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 105.560 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.345 2.618 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.270 2.764 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures traded higher last week and the contract remains closer to its recent highs. 105.834 marks a firm resistance, the 20-day EMA - a break would strengthen short-term bullish conditions. The latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 105.360, the Jan 2 trend low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Holding On To Its Latest Gains

• RES 4: 104.35 High Dec 16
• RES 3: 103.67 High Dec 19
• RES 2: 103.12 50.0% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 low
• RES 1: 102.78 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 102.26 @ Close Jan 9
• SUP 1: 101.02 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 99.97 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 99.18 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 98.15 Low Oct 24 (cont)

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend following the recovery from 99.18, the Dec 28 low. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and sights are set on 103.12, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 101.02, the Jan 4 low. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 98.15, the Dec 28 low.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Heading North

• RES 4: 116.46 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Dec 30 bear leg
• RES 3: 114.91 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 - Dec 30 bear leg
• RES 2: 114.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 113.75 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 113.48 @ Close Jan 9
• SUP 1: 111.59/110.77 Low Jan 6 / Low Jan 4
• SUP 2: 109.29 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 108.36 Low Dec 30 low and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 (cont) and a key support

The current bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the contract delivered a fresh high Monday. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and sights are set on the 114.00 handle next. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 114.91, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 110.77, the Jan 4 low. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 108.36, the Dec 30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Clears Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4175.50 High Feb 16 (cont)
• RES 3: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4088.00 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 4052.00 @ 05:47 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 3912.60/3842.20 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3697.00 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 3580.00 Low Nov 3

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Monday, extending the recent climb. The contract has cleared resistance at 4043.00, the Dec 13 high and a bull trigger. The clear breach of this hurdle represents a key short-term bullish development and paves the way for gains towards the 4100.00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reinforcing the current positive trend condition. Initial support lies at 3912.60, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Breaches The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4180.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4043.00 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 4000.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 3973.25 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 3905.75 @ 06:51 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 3788.50/78.45 Low Dec 22 / 61.8% of Oct 13-Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 2: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis traded higher Monday but failed to hold on to the session high and closed at the day low. Key resistance at 3917.35, the 50-day EMA, has been breached. A continuation higher and a clear break of this EMA would suggest potential for a stronger recovery and highlight a possible reversal that would open 4000.00 next. On the downside, a break lower would confirm a resumption of the downtrend - the bear trigger is 3788.50, the Dec 22 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $90.49 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $89.18 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.00 - High Jan 3
• RES 1: $81.74/83.82 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $79.40 @ 07:00 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: $77.61 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $75.64 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures remain bearish following the sharp sell-off on Jan 3 and 4. A resumption of weakness would expose $75.64, the Dec 9 low and bear trigger, where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started on Nov 7. This would pave the way for weakness towards $75.00 and below. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at $87.00, the Jan 3 high.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $84.10 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $83.27 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $81.50 - High Jan 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $76.50/78.64 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $74.36 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: $72.46 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.31 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures failed to hold on to yesterday’s gains. A bearish theme remains intact following the sell-off on Jan 3 and 4. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $70.31, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and maintain a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open $68.19, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance is at $81.50, the Jan 3 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: $1934.4 - High Apr 25, 2022
• RES 3: $1919.9 - High Apr 29, 2022
• RES 2: $1909.8 - High May 5, 2022
• RES 1: $1896.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $1871.7 @ 07:18 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28
• SUP 3: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15
• SUP 4: $1765.9 - Low Dec 5

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Monday, starting the week on a firm note and extending the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the current trend condition. The focus is on $1896.5, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at $1825.2, Jan 5 low.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - High Jan 4
• PRICE: $23.576 @ 07:22 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $22.382 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

The trend condition in Silver remains bullish despite the recent pullback. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition and fresh trend highs in December reinforce the uptrend. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.