MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Bear Flag
Price Signal Summary – S/T Bund Gains Considered Corrective
- Recent weakness in the S&P E-Minis contract appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has traded through support at the 20-day EMA. A bearish theme in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. A fresh cycle low this week marks a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
- GBPUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows and the trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A recent support at 1.2665, the Aug 8 low, has recently been cleared. The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Price is trading above support at the 20-day EMA, at 153.42. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Short-term gains in AUDUSD are considered corrective and a bear cycle remains in play. Support at 0.6513, the Nov 6 low, has recently been cleared and price is through 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg.
- The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest move down appears to have been a correction. Price has recovered from its recent lows and the metal is again trading higher, today. WTI futures are unchanged. A bearish theme remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high has reinforced a bear theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs and short-term gains still appear corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break lower reinforces this theme. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, opening 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and the latest shallow recovery appears to be a correction. Price is trading closer to its recent lows and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 1.0824 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.00699 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0610/0683 High Nov 20 / Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.0547 @ 05:54 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 1.0484 1.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 2: 1.0448 Low Sep 3 2023 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0377 1.236 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows. The trend direction remains down and the latest pause appears to be a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern. Note too that moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the downtrend would open 1.0484 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.0699, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.2826/2941 20- and 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.2768 High Nov 13
- PRICE: 1.2651 @ 06:05 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 1.2597 Low Nov 15
- SUP 2: 1.2568 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - Sep 26 bull cycle
- SUP 3. 1.2510 Low May 14
- SUP 4: 1.2446 Low Sep 9
GBPUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows and the trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A recent support at 1.2665, the Aug 8 low, has recently been cleared, paving the way for a move towards 1.2568, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.2826 the 20-day EMA. A short-term bounce would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Engulfing Candle Highlights Possible Reversal
- RES 4: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.8404 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8364/76 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
- PRICE: 0.8336 @ 06:51 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 0.8307/8260 Low Nov 14 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP has pulled back from Tuesday’s high. Attention is on a bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12 that highlights a potential reversal. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next key resistance at 0.8364, the 50-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of the average would open 0.8404, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 0.8260, Nov 11 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 158.68 2.50 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 2: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 156.75 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1554.75 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 153.42 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.11 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.09 Low Oct 21
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Price is trading above support at the 20-day EMA, at 153.42. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and sights are on 156.88 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a clear breach of the 20-day EMA is required to signal the start of a stronger corrective phase.
EURJPY TECHS: Remains Above Tuesday’s Low
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 163.20 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 161.50 Low Nov 19
- SUP 2: 161.01 Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
The recovery from Tuesday’s intraday low in EURJPY highlights a potential short-term reversal and the end of the recent Oct 31 - Nov 19 corrective cycle. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 166.69, the Oct 31 high. Initial resistance is at 165.04, the Nov 15 high. For bears, a break of Tuesday’s 161.50 low, would instead confirm a resumption of the recent bear leg.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6633/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6564 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6516 @ 07:55 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 0.6441 Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
Short-term gains in AUDUSD are considered corrective and a bear cycle remains in play. Support at 0.6513, the Nov 6 low, has recently been cleared and price is through 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. This opens 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6564, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 0.6633.
USDCAD TECHS: Support Lies At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.4253 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4140 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4131 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 1.4106 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3962 @ 08:02 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 1.3928 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 3: 1.3818 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
Despite this week’s pullback, the trend outlook in USDCAD remains bullish and the pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that initial firm support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3928, remains intact. A break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.4106, the Nov 15 high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 133.39 38.2% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 132.99 High Nov 19
- PRICE: 132.03 @ 05:33 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 131.28/130.58 Low Nov 14 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.48 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.08 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs and short term gains still appear corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break lower reinforces this theme. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, opening 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance points at 132.32, the 20-day EMA, and 132.86, the 50-day EMA, have been pierced. A clear break of both EMAs would highlight a stronger reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 119.010 High Nov 19
- RES 1: 118.854 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 118.470 @ 05:45 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 118.150/680 Low Nov 14 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
Recent gains in Bobl futures appear to be a correction. A sharp sell-off on Oct 30 reinforced a bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position too. A resumption of the downtrend would open 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 118.854, has been pierced. A clear breach of it would highlight a stronger reversal.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.880 High Nov 14
- PRICE: 106.745 @ 06:02 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 106.645 Low Nov 8
- SUP 2: 106.485/375 Low Nov 5 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Schatz futures are trading closer to their recent highs. A bearish trend is intact and the bull cycle that started Oct 31 appears corrective. The trend is oversold and the latest move higher has allowed this condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 106.375, the Oct 31 low and a bear trigger. The trendline at 106.758, drawn from the Oct 1 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would expose 106.945, Oct 29 high.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Shallow Correction
- RES 4: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 3: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- RES 2: 95.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 94.43/73 20-day EMA / High Nov 1
- PRICE: 93.67 @ Close Nov 20
- SUP 1: 92.97/53 Low Nov 14 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and the latest shallow recovery appears to be a correction. Price is trading closer to its recent lows and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. Scope is seen for an extension towards 92.23, a 2.236 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing. The Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance. Initial firm resistance to watch is 94.73, Nov 1 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 122.62 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 122.41 High Oct 18 / 21
- RES 2: 151.50 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.89 High Nov 19
- PRICE: 120.14 @ Close Nov 20
- SUP 1: 119.12/117.88 Low Nov 13 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.70 61.8% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.34 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 116.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
Despite the latest recovery in BTP futures, a bearish tone remains intact and gains are considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend would refocus attention on 117.70, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch is 119.12, the Nov 13 low. Clearance of this level would be seen as an early bearish signal. On the upside, the 50-day EMA has been breached, a continuation higher would open 121.50, a Fibonacci retracement.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4838.11 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4754.00 @ 06:09 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 4699.00 Low Nov 19
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
A bearish theme in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. A fresh cycle low this week marks a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4662.12, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, where a break would highlight a reversal. First resistance is at 4838.11, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5974.25/6053.25 High Nov 15 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5930.00 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 5855.00 Low Nov 19
- SUP 2: 5838.64 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
Recent weakness in the S&P E-Minis contract appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has traded through support at the 20-day EMA and the next key support to monitor is 5838.64, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is at 6053.25, Nov 11 high. A break would resume the uptrend.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.24 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $73.18 @ 06:55 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures are unchanged. Short-term bearish conditions remain intact and the contract is trading below resistance. Support at $69.68, the Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and a key support, remain exposed. For bulls, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (F5) Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.41 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $69.27 @ 07:12 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures are unchanged. A bearish theme remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high has reinforced a bear theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance is $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Trades Through The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2710.4/2750.0 - High Nov 11 / 5
- RES 2: $2686.2 - High Nov 11
- RES 1: $2662.3 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $2661.1 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: $2610.5/2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 2: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: $2415.9 - 38.2% retracement of the Oct 6 ‘23 - Oct 31 bull leg
The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest move down appears to have been a correction. Price has recovered from its recent lows and the metal is again trading higher, today. The 20-day EMA at $2651.2, has been breached. This highlights a stronger reversal and signals the end of the recent bearish corrective cycle, opening $2710.4, the Nov 11 high. Key short-term support lies at $2536.9, Nov 14 high.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.498 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 31.247 @ 08:06 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: $29.677 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Medium-term bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 appears to be a correction. However this corrective cycle remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. This has exposed $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.498, the 20-day EMA.