MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Gains Seen as Corrective, But Resistance Within Range

Price Signal Summary – EUR Gains Seen as Corrective, But Resistance Within Range

• S&P E-Minis trend conditions remain bearish and the contract is trading lower today. Price remains below the 50-day EMA, at 4020.29 and sights are set on 3901.75, the Jan 19 low and 3887.62, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain above last Friday’s low of 4175.00. Key support to watch is 4193.20, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact and a continuation higher near-term would expose the bull trigger at 4323.00.
• USDCAD is consolidating. Bulls remain in the driver’s seat for now and sights are on the key short-term resistance at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and clear the way for a test and break of the 1.3800 handle. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Price has pierced 136.67, the 38.2% retracement of the downleg between Oct 21 and Jan 16. EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and moved through resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.0662. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective, however, a continuation higher would expose resistance at 1.0803, the Feb 14 high and a key short-term level.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and price is trading below the 50-day EMA, at $1846.4 - recent gains are considered corrective. The break of the 50-day EMA, in mid-February, strengthened the case for bears. WTI futures remain above last week’s lows and key short-term support has been defined at $73.80, the Feb 22 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and for now, this continues to highlight a downtrend.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the contract is trading lower today. This week’s move has resulted in a break of the 132.60 key support. the Jan 2 low. Gilt futures have recovered from Tuesday’s intraday low of 99.20. Despite the bounce, trend conditions remain bearish and this week’s lows reinforce current conditions. The move down confirms a resumption of the trend and note that the 100.00 handle has been cleared.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Below The 50-Day Moving Average

• RES 4: 1.0915 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - 27 downleg.
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.0724 38.2% retracement of the Feb 2 - 27 downleg
• RES 1: 1.00691/25 High Mar 1 / 50-dma
• PRICE: 1.0640 @ 05:46 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 1.0533 Low Feb 27 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0436 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and moved through resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.0662. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective, however, a continuation higher would expose resistance at 1.0803, the Feb 14 high and a key short-term level. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, a break of 1.0533, Monday’s low, would resume the bear cycle and open 1.0484, Jan 6 low and key support.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2244 61.8% retracement of the Jan 23 - Feb 17 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2182 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 1.2147 High Feb 21
• RES 1: 1.2079 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1982 @ 06:08 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 1.1915 Low Feb 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1789 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.1764 Low Nov 17

GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the pair has failed to hold on to its gains earlier in the week - resistance remains intact. A break of 1.1915, the Feb 17 low would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and would expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. Clearance of this important price point would highlight a broader reversal threat and a potential double top pattern on the daily chart. Key short-term resistance is seen at 1.2147, Feb 21 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Testing Short-Term Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8929 High Feb 17
• RES 1: 0.8884/97 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high / High Mar 01
• PRICE: 0.8875 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 08815 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8755/53 Low Feb 28 and key support / 100-dma
• SUP 3: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP bounced Wednesday and breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Price is testing resistance at 0.8884, a trendline drawn from the early February highs. A key S/T support has been defined at 0.8755, Tuesday’s low. A continuation higher would highlight a potential reversal and expose 0.8929, Feb 17 high. Note that MA studies are in a bull mode position. On the downside, a break of 0.8755 is required to reinstate the recent downleg.

USDJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 138.17 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 137.90.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 137.64 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 136.92 High Feb 28
• PRICE: 136.63 @ 06:43 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 135.26 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 133.61 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.55 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 131.52 Low Feb 14

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Price has pierced 136.67, the 38.2% retracement of the downleg between Oct 21 and Jan 16. A clear break of this hurdle would set the scene for a climb towards 138.17, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, the support to watch lies at 133.61, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a possible reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 145.80 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg
• PRICE: 145.49 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 142.99 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 142.15 Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 141.52 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 140.14 Low Feb 13

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish and the cross is trading at its recent highs. Fresh gains this week maintain a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The cross has cleared 144.19, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 3 bear leg. The breach opens 145.80, the 76.4% retracement and 146.73, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at 142.15, the Feb 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 0.6989 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 0.6850 Former trendline support drawn from Oct 13 2022 low
• RES 1: 0.6812 Low Feb 17
• PRICE: 0.6730 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 0.6695 Low Mar 01
• SUP 2: 0.6664 50% retracement Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6629 Low Dec 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6585 Low Nov 21

AUDUSD’s February downtrend remains intact with price trading closer to its recent lows. The recent breach of both the 200-dma and 100-dma, reinforces bearish conditions and note too that the pair has cleared a trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 2022 low. The focus is on 0.6629, the Dec 20 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is at 0.6850, the former trendline support.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 34
• RES 3: 1.3795 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3665 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 1.3626 @ 08:05 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 1.3471 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.3358 Low Feb 16

USDCAD is consolidating. Bulls remain in the driver’s seat for now and sights are on the key short-term resistance at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and clear the way for a test and break of the 1.3800 handle. On the downside, the support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA. It intersects at 1.3471 and a clear break would be seen as a short-term bearish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Southbound

• RES 4: 135.30 High Feb 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 134.85 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 133.61 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 132.99 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 131.66 @ 05:13 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 131.52 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 131.16 2.00 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number resistance
• SUP 4: 130.13 2.236 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the contract is trading lower today. This week’s move has resulted in a break of the 132.60 key support. the Jan 2 low. The clear breach of it confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and note that the 132.00 handle has also been cleared. The focus is on 131.16, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 134.85, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Fresh Cycle Lows

• RES 4: 116.320 High Feb 24
• RES 3: 116.351 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 115.520 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 115.220 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 114.500 @ 05:19 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 114.460 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 114.239 2.382 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 114.020 2.50 proj of the Jan 19 - Jan 30 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.000 Round number support

Bobl futures continue to head south and hit fresh YTD lows - the downtrend remains clearly intact. This week’s break lower confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position and this highlights current sentiment. Sights are on 114.239, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.192, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 105.385 High Feb 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 105.348 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 105.090 High Feb 28
• RES 1: 105.005 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 104.760 @ 05:38 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 104.750 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 104.707 2.50 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.585 3.00 proj of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.492 Lower 3.0% Bollinger Band

Schatz futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract continues to weaken - extending the current bearish cycle. The move down this week maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The 105.000 handle has been breached and this paves the way for a move towards 104.707 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 105.348, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 103.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 102.20 High Feb 20
• RES 2: 101.92 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 100.69/100.98 High Mar 1 / 27
• PRICE: 99.99 @ Close Mar 1
• SUP 1: 99.20 Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 99.17 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 3: 98.94 1.50 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 98.70 1.618 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing

Gilt futures have recovered from Tuesday’s intraday low of 99.20. Despite the bounce, trend conditions remain bearish and this week’s lows reinforce current conditions. The move down confirms a resumption of the trend and note that the 100.00 handle has been cleared. A continuation lower would open 99.17, the 1.382 projection of the Feb 20 - 23 - 24 price swing. On the upside, resistance is seen at Monday’s 100.98 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 116.11 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 115.30 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 114.05 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• RES 1: 113.17 High Feb 28
• PRICE: 111.88 @ Close Mar 1
• SUP 1: 111.78 Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 110.88 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 4: 109.29 Low Jan 3

BTP futures traded to a fresh short-term trend low yesterday of 111.55. The trend outlook remains bearish and the next downside levels to watch cross at 110.88, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope and 110.77, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 114.14, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to signal a potential base and would highlight a possible reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Bull Channel Support Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 4446.00 3.00 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rally from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4323.00 High Feb 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4214.00 @ 05:46 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 4193.20 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 2: 4134.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3955.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain above last Friday’s low of 4175.00. Key support to watch is 4193.20, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 13 low. While channel support holds, the broader uptrend remains intact and a continuation higher near-term would expose the bull trigger at 4323.00, Feb 16 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the broader uptrend. On the downside, a breach of the channel base would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Trading Lower As The Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 4168.50 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 4096.00 High Feb 17
• RES 2: 4038.61 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 4020.29 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3937.75 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: 3901.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 3787.62 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 3819.00 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 3788.50 Low Dec 22 and a key support

S&P E-Minis trend conditions remain bearish and the contract is trading lower today. Price remains below the 50-day EMA, at 4020.29 and sights are set on 3901.75, the Jan 19 low and 3887.62, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 22 - Feb 2 bull cycle. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA and 4038.61, the 20-day EMA. Note that a clear break of both the 50- and 20-day EMAs would signal a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Remains AboveThe 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $86.55 - High Feb 13
• RES 2: $85.83 - High Feb 16
• RES 1: $84.53 - High Feb 17
• PRICE: $84.15 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: $80.25/78.84 - Low Feb 23 / 6
• SUP 2: $77.76 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $76.04 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $75.43 - 0.764 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures are holding on to recent gains and key short-term support has been defined at $80.25, the Feb 23 low. The contract traded higher Wednesday and price has moved above resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 83.68. A continuation higher would open $86.55, the Feb 13 high. On the downside, sub $80.25 levels would reinstate the recent bearish theme and this would open $78.84, the Feb 6 low.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $80.78 - High Feb 13
• RES 1: $77.91 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $77.51 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: $73.80 - Low Feb 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $72.64 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: $70.86 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain above last week’s lows and key short-term support has been defined at $73.80, the Feb 22 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and for now, this continues to highlight a downtrend. A break of the $73.80, would open $72.64, the Feb 6 low. Initial resistance to watch is at $77.91, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a bullish development and signal scope for a stronger recovery.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: $1900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $1890.2 - High Feb 9
• RES 2: $1870.5 - High Feb 14
• RES 1: $1846.4 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1830.8 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: $1804.9 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: $1792.9 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: $1787.3 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and price is trading below the 50-day EMA, at $1846.4 - recent gains are considered corrective. The break of the 50-day EMA, in mid-February, strengthened the case for bears. Sights are on $1800.0 and $1787.3, the 50.0% retracement of the uptrend between Sep 28 and Feb 2. On the upside, the 50-day EMA marks the first key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this average would ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $23.606 - High Feb 3
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.288 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $21.754 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $20.800 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 2
• SUP 1: $20.265 - 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg

Silver remains in a downtrend. The recent move lower exposes $20.265 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a test and break of the $20.00 handle. Initial resistance to watch is at $21.754, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA intersects at $22.288. The area between these two averages marks a key resistance zone where a break is required to signal a trend reversal.