MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/GBP Confirms Bearish Condition

Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP Confirms Bearish Condition

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Friday, reinforcing bullish conditions and maintaining the current price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Potential is for a climb towards 4145.75, the Jun 9 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher once again Friday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The contract has pierced the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40.
• EURUSD is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The pair is trading above support at 1.0097, Jul 27 low, and attention is on immediate resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. The sharp drop in EURGBP last week, reinforces bearish conditions and puts the cross at new multi-month lows. The latest spell of weakness has also resulted in a print below 0.8367, the May 2 low. EURJPY is trading lower again and trend conditions remain bearish. This reinforces the current downward cycle and marks an extension of last week’s breach of support at 136.87, the Jul 8 low.
• Gold maintains a firmer tone and traded higher Friday. Current gains are considered corrective and attention is resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1785.3. A break of this average would suggest potential for an extension and expose trendline resistance at $1812.0. WTI futures traded higher Friday and pierced the 50-day EMA. The contract however pulled back from the day high and remains below the average - the EMA intersects at $100.76.
• Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Fresh highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and fresh highs last week reinforce this set-up. The move higher highlights an extension of the recent break of resistance at 117.09, Jul 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Above Initial Support

• RES 4: 1.0414 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0372 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0278 High Jul 21 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.0224 @ 06:02 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 1.0097 Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The pair is trading above support at 1.0097, Jul 27 low, and attention is on immediate resistance at 1.0278, the Jul 21 high. A break would once again resume short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top intersects at 1.0414. A resumption of weakness would expose parity again and 9952, the Jul 14.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2245 High Jul 29
• PRICE: 1.2181@ 06:10 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 1.206320-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020

GBPUSD retains the bulk of the week’s gains. The move higher marks an extension of the bounce off 1.1760, Jul 14 low. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 1.2208. A clear breach would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.2332, the Jun 27 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.1890, the Jul 21 low. A break would signal a resumption of bearish activity.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8497 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8426/74 High Jul 27 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8391 @ 06:19 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 0.8346 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8291 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and a key support

The sharp drop in EURGBP last week, reinforces bearish conditions and puts the cross at new multi-month lows. The latest spell of weakness has also resulted in a print below 0.8367, the May 2 low. A continuation lower would open 0.8313 next, the Apr 22 low. The Jul 21 high of 0.8585 has been defined as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8474, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Starts The Week On A Softer Note

• RES 4: 138.88 High Jul 21
• RES 3: 137.96 High Jul 22
• RES 2: 136.15/137.46 20-day EMA / High Jul 27
• RES 1: 134.22/35.90 50-day EMA / Former channel support
• PRICE: 132.52 @ 06:30 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 132.07 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 131.50 Low Jun 16 and a key support
• SUP 3: 130.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.51 Low Jun 2

USDJPY has started the week on a softer note. The outlook remains bearish following last week’s move lower. The pair cleared a key support at 135.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low. The break strengthened bearish conditions and resulted in a move below 134.26, the Jun 23 low. Attention is on 131.50, the Jun 16 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.46, the Jul 27 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 142.32 High Jul 21 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.01 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 139.17/140.69 20-day EMA / High Jul 22
• RES 1: 137.33 High Jul 29
• PRICE: 135.45 @ 06:45 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 135.15 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 134.58 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 133.93 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support

EURJPY is trading lower again and trend conditions remain bearish. This reinforces the current downward cycle and marks an extension of last week’s breach of support at 136.87, the Jul 8 low. The break strengthened bearish conditions and has paved the way for a move towards 133.93 next, the May 19 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 139.17, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at 142.32, the Jul 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 1: 0.7053 61.8% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• PRICE: 0.6991 @ 06:49 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 0.6911/0.6859 20-day EMA / Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020

AUDUSD is unchanged and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Trend conditions remain bullish. A continuation higher would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069. Further out there is scope for a climb towards 0.7141, a Fibonacci retracement. A strong reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the 0.6682 bear trigger, Jul 14 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial support to watch is at 0.6911, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3135/3199 3.0% High Jul 15 / Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2893/47 20-day EMA / High Jul 25
• PRICE: 1.2808 @ 06:59 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 1.2788 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 2: 1.2763 Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2610 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a bearish theme and continues to trade at its recent lows. 1.2819, the Jun 28 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this support would strengthen bearish conditions and extend the move below both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This would open 1.2763, the Jun 13 low and 1.2685, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 1.2947, Jul 25 high A break would ease the current bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 161.38 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 1: 158.19 1.618 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• PRICE: 157.21 @ 04:53 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 154.75/153.27 Low Jul 28 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.15 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

Bund futures maintain a bullish tone and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Fresh highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 159.79 next, the Apr 4 high (cont). Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, the Jul 21 low. A break of this level is required to signal a potential top. Initial support is at 154.75.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bulls Still In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 130.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.950 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 129.001 1.764 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 128.190/128.380 High Jul 28 / High May 12 (cont)
• PRICE: 127.730 @ 05:08 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 126.450/125.989 Low Jul 28 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 125.418 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 123.010 Low Jun 30

Bobl futures outlook remains bullish and last week’s gains strengthen current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 128.380 next, the May 12 high (cont). On the downside, key support has been defined at 124.030, the Jul 21 low. A break of this level is required to signal a reversal. Initial support is at Thursday’s 126.450 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Northbound

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 110.500 High May 26 (cont)
• RES 2: 110.412 1.50 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.260 High Jul 28
• PRICE: 110.085 @ 05:08 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 109.639 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 109.350/108.950 Low Jul 22 / 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 108.025 Low Jun 21

Schatz futures traded sharply higher last Thursday to confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and signals scope for a continuation of the bull cycle. The focus is on 110.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support is unchanged at 108.950, the Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is seen at 109.639, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Bullish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: 121.07 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.26 1.618 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 118.71 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• PRICE: 118.18@ Close Jul 29
• SUP 1: 116.70 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 116.27 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and fresh highs last week reinforce this set-up. The move higher highlights an extension of the recent break of resistance at 117.09, Jul 6 high. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards 118.71 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support is unchanged at 114.08, the Jul 8 low. Initial firm support is at 116.07.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.22 0.764 proj of the Jun 14 - Jul 1 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 127.35 High Jul 29
• PRICE: 126.33 @ Close Jul 29
• SUP 1: 122.81/119.57 Low Jul 28 / Low Jul 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Contract Low

BTP futures short-term trend conditions remain bullish and the contract traded higher Friday. The rally resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at 126.41, the Jul 1 high. The move reinforces conditions for bulls and highlights a broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. This opens 127.79, the May 26 high. Initial firm support lies at 122.81, the Jul 28 low. Key trend support is at 119.57.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Heading North

• RES 4: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 3840.00 High Jun 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 1: 3727.00 High Jul 29
• PRICE: 3690.00 @ 05:20 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 3570.00/3467.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3321.30 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg (cont)
• SUP 4: 3300.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher once again Friday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The contract has pierced the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. A clear breach of this chart point would signal scope for a climb towards 3774.00 next, the Jun 9 high. On the downside, the key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3570.50, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 2: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4145.75 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 4116.25 @ 06:56 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 3967.78/13.25 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded higher Friday, reinforcing bullish conditions and maintaining the current price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Potential is for a climb towards 4145.75, the Jun 9 high. The next key resistance is at 4204.75, the May 31 high. On the downside, initial trend support has been defined at 3913.25, the Jul 26 low. A break would highlight a possible early bearish reversal signal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $115.31- High Jun 17
• RES 3: $112.92- High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $106.50 - High Jul 29
• PRICE: $103.02 @ 07:05 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: $100.97/96.70 - Low Jul 28 / Low Jul 25 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $94.37/91.22 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures traded above the 50-day EMA on Friday, but pulled back from the intraday high. The average, intersects at $103.60. A clear break of would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards $110.72, the Jul 5 high. Note too that a clear break higher would also highlight an inverted head and shoulders reversal on the daily chart. On the downside, support to watch lies at $96.70, Jul 25 low. A break would be bearish.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Watch Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $113.87 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $111.14 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $108.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $101.88 - High Jul 29
• PRICE: $97.63 @ 07:15 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: $93.01/88.23 - Low Jul 25 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures traded higher Friday and pierced the 50-day EMA. The contract however pulled back from the day high and remains below the average - the EMA intersects at $100.76. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a stronger reversal. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would open $88.23, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. The first support to watch is at $93.01, Jul 25 low.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $1847.9 - High Jun 22
• RES 3: $1825.1 - High Jun 30
• RES 2: $1812.0 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1785.3 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1762.2 @ 07:20 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: $1745.1 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27 / 21
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold maintains a firmer tone and traded higher Friday. Current gains are considered corrective and attention is resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1785.3. A break of this average would suggest potential for an extension and expose trendline resistance at $1812.0. A break of the trendline would represent an important technical break. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1711.7, the Jul 27 low. Key support is at $1681.0.

SILVER TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.373 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $20193 @ 08:10 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: $19.062 - Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver maintains a bullish tone. The metal has traded just short of the 50-day EMA, at 20.373. This EMA represents a key short-term resistance and a break would pave the way for a stronger recovery and strengthen the current bull cycle. A move higher would open $21.540, the Jun 27 high. On the downside, the broader downtrend remains intact - recent gains are still considered corrective. Key support has been defined at $18.146, Jul 14 low.