MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/GBP Narrows Gap With Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP Narrows Gap With Key Resistance

• Bearish conditions in the E-mini S&P contract remain intact and price is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA following a recent failure at the top of the bull channel. A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present following the reversal from 4513.00, the Jul 31 high. Tuesday’s move lower reinforces the current condition and price remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bearish. The recent pause appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern that if correct, reinforces the bearish condition. The recent break of trendline support drawn from the May 31 low and a breach of the 50-day EMA. EURGBP returned higher Wednesday, narrowing the gap again with recent highs. Resistance to watch is the Aug 3 high of 0.8656, a break would signal scope for climb towards the key short-term resistance at 0.8701, the Jul 19 high. Short-term AUDUSD trend conditions remain bearish following recent weakness and the extension of the reversal from the Jul 13 high. Price is trading below the 20- and 50-day EMAs - the recent breach of these averages strengthened a bearish theme.
• Gold remains bearish and the yellow metal traded lower yesterday, confirming an extension of the bear cycle that started Jul 20. $1924.5, the Jul 11 low, has been breached. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact. The contract traded higher yesterday, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. Price has also breached resistance at $83.59, the Nov 7 2022 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for a climb towards $87.43.
• Bund futures traded higher Tuesday and breached the 20-day EMA, at 132.67. The 50-day EMA at 133.11, has also been pierced this week. Price has pulled back, however, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a stronger bounce towards 134.01, the Jul 24 high. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest bounce appears to be a correction. The contract has recently breached 96.11, the Jul 21 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish theme.

EURUSD TECHS: Pennant Formation

• RES 4: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1150/1229 High Jul 27 / 20
• RES 1: 1.1042 High Aug 4
• PRICE: 1.0984 @ 05:39 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 1.0912 Low Aug 3 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0867 Low Jul 7
• SUP 3: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0804 Low Jun 15

The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bearish. The recent pause appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern that if correct, reinforces the bearish condition. The recent break of trendline support drawn from the May 31 low and a breach of the 50-day EMA, strengthens a bearish theme and opens the 1.0867, the Jul 7 low, ahead of key support 1.0834, the Jul 6 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.1042, the Aug 4 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 1.2887/2996 High Jul 28 / 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2802 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2712 @ 05:51 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 1.2621 Low Aug 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2591 Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2439 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

Bearish conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Last week’s move lower reinforced a bearish theme. The pair breached a key support highlighted by the 50-day EMA, at 1.2745 today, and the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 8 low - currently at 1.2791. The focus is on 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and the next important support. First resistance is at 1.2802, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
• RES 2: 0.8673/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
• RES 1: 0.8656 High Aug 3
• PRICE: 0.8634 @ 06:21 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 0.8590/44 Low Aug 9 / Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 0.8514 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

EURGBP returned higher Wednesday, narrowing the gap again with recent highs. Resistance to watch is the Aug 3 high of 0.8656, a break would signal scope for climb towards the key short-term resistance at 0.8701, the Jul 19 high. From a trend perspective, moving average studies highlight a dominant downtrend. Support to watch lies at 0.8544, the Jul 27 low, where a break would strengthen a bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 146.38 1.764 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 145.69 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 145.07 High Jun 30 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 144.20 High Jul 7
• PRICE: 144.03 @ 05:58 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 141.94/140.92 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 138.07 Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

An uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair continues to appreciate. The focus is on resistance at 144.20, the Jul 7 high. A break of this hurdle would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. A break of 145.07 would confirm a resumption of the trend. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 141.75, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.23 Intraday high
• PRICE: 158.16 @ 06:37 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 156.26/155.54 20-day EMA / Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 154.65 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle

Short-term conditions in EURJPY remain bullish and the cross is trading higher today. Key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, has been breached. The break confirms a continuation of the medium-term uptrend and opens 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a rising trend. Key support is at 151.42, the Jul 28 low. Initial firm support lies at 154.65, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 2: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 0.6645/6680 High Aug 4 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6544 @ 06:57 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 0.6497 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 0.6485 Low Jun 1
• SUP 3: 0.6458 Low May 31 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 ‘22 - Feb 2 bull leg

Short-term AUDUSD trend conditions remain bearish following recent weakness and the extension of the reversal from the Jul 13 high. Price is trading below the 20- and 50-day EMAs - the recent breach of these averages strengthened a bearish theme. The continuation lower opens 0.6458, the May 31 low and a bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6610, the Aug 4 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 1.3523 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3502 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 1.3400 @ 07:22 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 1.3364 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 1.3295 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
• SUP 4: 1.3151 Low Jul 31

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish despite the pullback from Tuesday’s high. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.3387, the Jul 7 high. The break strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.3523, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key support has been defined at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3295, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 133.45 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 132.59 @ 05:05 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 131.82/12 Low Aug 8 / 4
• SUP 2: 130.99 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 130.60 Low Jul 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

Bund futures traded higher Tuesday and breached the 20-day EMA, at 132.67. The 50-day EMA at 133.11, has also been pierced this week. Price has pulled back, however, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a stronger bounce towards 134.01, the Jul 24 high. The trend outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on support at 131.12, the Aug 4 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.340 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 115.880 @ 05:12 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 115.670/230 Low Aug 8 / 4
• SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Bobl futures traded higher yesterday and in the process breached resistance at 116.200, the Jul 24 high. The contract has pulled back, however, the break higher cancels a recent bearish threat and instead signals scope for a climb towards key short-term resistance at 116.600, the Jul 19 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a break of 115.230, the Jul 13 low, would reinstate a bearish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Resumes The Short-Term Bull Leg

• RES 4: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 105.376 61.8% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.350 100-dma (cont)
• RES 1: 105.295 High Aug 9
• PRICE: 105.130 @ 05:28 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 105.039/104.930 20-day EMA / Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 104.805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

A short-term uptrend in Schatz futures remains in place and Tuesday’s move higher reinforces this theme. The contract has breached resistance at 105.185, the Jul 19 high, to confirm a resumption of the bull leg that started Jul 6. The break higher signals scope for gains towards 105.376, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is seen at 104.930, the Aug 4 low. A break would signal a possible reversal.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar - Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 3: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 96.19/81 High Jul 31 / 27
• RES 1: 95.57 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 95.17 @ Close Aug 9
• SUP 1: 94.67/93.70 Low Aug 8 / 4
• SUP 2: 93.45 76.4% retracement of the Jul 7 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 92.82 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 92.09 Low Jul 7 and a key support

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest bounce appears to be a correction. The contract has recently breached 96.11, the Jul 21 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish theme. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 93.45 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 96.19, the Jul 31 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Corrective Bounce Still In Play

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• RES 1: 116.14 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 11562 @ Close Aug 9
• SUP 1: 113.81 Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

A bearish condition in BTP futures remains intact following the reversal that started Jul 19. However, Tuesday’s gains threaten this theme with the contract trading above the 20-day EMA once again. The average intersects at 115.25. A continuation higher would expose 116.14 next, the Aug 2 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113.81, the Aug 4 low. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bearish development.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4424.00/4513.00 High Aug 2 / High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4374.50 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4358.00 @ 05:56 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 4276.00 Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present following the reversal from 4513.00, the Jul 31 high. Tuesday’s move lower reinforces the current condition and price remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, key support at 4331.00, the Jul 26 low, has been cleared. This further strengthens current conditions and opens 4220.00, the Jul 7 low and a reversal trigger. Initial firm resistance is 4424.00, Aug 2 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Support AT The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4681.35 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
• RES 3: 4670.58 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27
• RES 1: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• PRICE: 4503.25 @ 06:38 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 4478.25 Low Aug 9
• SUP 2: 4460.64 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4440.13 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low
• SUP 4: 4411.25 Low Jul 10

Bearish conditions in the E-mini S&P contract remain intact and price is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA following a recent failure at the top of the bull channel - this also highlights a bearish development and the risk of an extension lower near-term. Further downside would open 4460.64, the 50-day EMA. Resistance to watch is 4560.75, the Aug 4 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Heading North

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $87.86 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $87.69 @ 06:53 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: $82.36/80.19 - Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Bullish conditions in Brent futures remain intact and the contract is trading higher once again. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a break of the recent high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on the psychological $90.00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position reflecting current market sentiment. First key support lies at $82.36, the Aug 3 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.43 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.94 - High Aug 23 2022
• RES 1: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• PRICE: $84.58 @ 06:58 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: $78.69/76.28 - Aug 3 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.78 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 4: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact. The contract traded higher yesterday, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. Price has also breached resistance at $83.59, the Nov 7 2022 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for a climb towards $87.43, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support lies at $78.69, the Aug 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 2: $1972.4/1987.5 - High Jul 31 / High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1947.2 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1917.0 @ 07:15 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: $1914.1 - Low Aug 9
• SUP 2: $1902.8 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: $1893.1 - Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold remains bearish and the yellow metal traded lower yesterday, confirming an extension of the bear cycle that started Jul 20. $1924.5, the Jul 11 low, has been breached. The move lower signals potential for weakness towards the key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance to watch is $1947.2, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Price Activity

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
• RES 1: $23.807/25.267 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 20
• PRICE: $22.716 @ 08:01 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: $22.527 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

Silver maintains a bearish theme following this week’s extension of the current downward cycle. The continuation lower signals scope for a move towards $22.527 next, the Jul 6 low, and $22.111 further out, the Jun 23 low and a key support. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Initial resistance to watch is at $23.807, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal a possible reversal.