MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/GBP Trades Just Ahead of Support

Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP Trades Just Ahead of Support

• S&P E-Minis are trading closer to last week's lows. The recent move down is - for now - considered corrective. The uptrend that started on Oct 13 remains intact, however, attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 3951.09. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions are bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. Recent high prints confirmed an extension of the uptrend that started in early October and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs but has pulled back from the Friday high and this leaves resistance at 1.0595 intact, Dec 5 high. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.0615, the Jun 27 high. EURGBP is trading just ahead of support at 0.8547, the 200-dma and Dec 1 low. Weakness through here would take the cross to its lowest levels since late August. The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish - the recent move lower appears to be a correction. Price is trading above key support at 0.6635, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest retracement (early last week) appears to be a correction. A fresh trend high on Dec 5 reinforced a bullish theme and price has recently breached $1786.5, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger. Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish and last week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. $74.96, the Sep 28 low, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and sights are on the $70.00 psychological handle.
• The Bund futures trend direction is up and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The cross traded higher last week. Resistance at 141.94, the Nov 24 high, has recently been breached and moving average studies have crossed, to highlight a bull mode condition. Gilt futures continue to trade inside the recent range. Trend conditions are unchanged and remain bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies highlight a bull mode set-up.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key S/T Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.0774 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 1.0736 2.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0668 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.0595/0615 High Dec 5 and bull trigger / High Jun 27
• PRICE: 1.0522 @ 15:21 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 1.0443 Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 1.0387/0291 20-day EMA / Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 1.0223 Low Nov 21
• SUP 4: 1.0214 50-day EMA

EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs but has pulled back from the Friday high and this leaves resistance at 1.0595 intact, Dec 5 high. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.0615, the Jun 27 high. Note that while price remains below 1.0595, a bear candle on Dec 5 - shooting star - continues to highlight a possible short-term bearish threat. A reversal would open 1.0387, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2345/2406 High Dec 5 / High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2227 @ 06:01 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 1.2107 Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 1.2026 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1901 Low Nov 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.1797 50-day EMA

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish and price is trading closer to its recent highs. The pair has cleared the 200-dma and maintains a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would open 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2026, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Support At The 200 DMA

• RES 4: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 3: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8778 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 0.8660 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8601 @ 06:16 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 0.8547 Low Dec 1, 200-dma and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
• SUP 4: 0.8449 1.236 proj of the Oct 12 - 31 - Nov 9 price swing

EURGBP is trading just ahead of support at 0.8547, the 200-dma and Dec 1 low. Weakness through here would take the cross to its lowest levels since late August. This would also strengthen a bearish theme and pave the way for a move towards 0.8522 initially, the Aug 30 low. On the upside the 50-day EMA, at 0.8660, marks a key short-term resistance. A break would ease the bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 140.98 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 138.70 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 137.86 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 137.04 @ 06:40 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 135.61/133.63 Low Dec 9 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.56 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 131.08 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.41 Low Aug 2

USDJPY remains below last week’s high. The short-term outlook is bullish and a corrective cycle remains in play, following the recovery from 133.63, the Dec 2 low. This phase has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. An extension higher would open 138.70, the 20-day EMA. This average marks the first key short-term resistance. On the downside, the bear trigger is unchanged at 133.63. A break would resume the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 146.14 High Nov 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 145.23 High Nov 24
• RES 2: 144.58 High Dec 8
• RES 1: 144.50 Trendline drawn from the Oct 21 high
• PRICE: 144.15 @ 06:44 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 143.10/140.77 Low Dec 6 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.44 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 138.06 Low Sep 28

EURJPY is trading closer to last week’s highs. Attention is still on key short-term trendline resistance that intersects at 144.50. This trendline is drawn from the Oct 21 high and a clear break of it is required to signal a stronger bullish reversal. This would open 145.23, the Nov 24 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 140.77, the Dec 2 low. A break of this level would resume bearish activity.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6851 High Dec 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6780 @ 07:57 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 0.6669 Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 0.6635/6585 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish - the recent move lower appears to be a correction. Price is trading above key support at 0.6635, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6851, the Dec 5 high is the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 0.6909, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 1.3700 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 1.3651 @ 08:00 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 1.3504/3385 Former trendline resistance / Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3139 Low Sep 14

USDCAD is consolidating and trading closer to its recent highs. The short-term outlook remains bullish. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of trendline resistance drawn from the Oct-13 high. The trendline intersects at 1.3504 and represents support. Attention is on 1.3751 next, the Nov 4 high and 1.3808, the Nov 3 high. The latter is a key resistance and a break would strengthen bullish conditions.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 144.46 1.50 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 143.68 1.382 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 143.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 141.94/142.91 High Dec 9 / 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 140.48 @ 05:11 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 140.27 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 139.62 Low Nov 29
• SUP 3: 136.13 Low Nov 28 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 138.34 Low Nov 18

The Bund futures trend direction is up and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The cross traded higher last week. Resistance at 141.94, the Nov 24 high, has recently been breached and moving average studies have crossed, to highlight a bull mode condition. This signals a stronger reversal. Potential is seen for a climb to 143.00. Firm support has been defined at 139.13, the Nov 28 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 120.765 1.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 120.568 1.382 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 120.324 1.236 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 119.580/120.150 High Dec 9 / 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.020 @ 05:17 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 118.870 Low Dec 9
• SUP 2: 118.690 Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 118.260 Low Nov 28 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 118.170 Low Nov 16

The Bobl futures trend condition remains bullish despite the strong pullback last week. The contract recently breached resistance at 118.870, the Nov 10 high. Moving average studies appear to be crossing to highlight a bull mode condition. If correct, this signals a stronger reversal. The print above 120.130 last week, Dec 2 high, signals a continuation of the uptrend and opens 120.324, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at 118.260, the Nov 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 107.023 1.764 proj of the Nov 1 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 106.920 1.50 proj of the Nov 1 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 106.665/875 High Dec 9 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 106.515 @ 05:30 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 106.460 Low Dec 6
• SUP 2: 106.430 Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 106.335 Low Nov 28 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 106.310 Low Nov 11

Schatz futures remain above support at the Nov 28 low of 106.335. The short-term outlook is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Attention is on 106.875, the Dec 2 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open the 107.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support is at the 106.335 level. Clearance of this chart point would suggest scope for a deeper pullback.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Still Looking For A Break Higher

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 107.06 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.95 High Dec 2
• PRICE: 105.43 @ Close Dec 9
• SUP 1: 104.79 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 103.54 Low Nov 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 103.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 102.77 Low Nov 10 (cont)

Gilt futures continue to trade inside the recent range. Trend conditions are unchanged and remain bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies highlight a bull mode set-up. The focus is on a climb to 109.47, the Aug 31 low on the continuation chart. Key short-term support lies at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. The bull trigger is 107.06, the Nov 24 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play Despite Latest Pullback

• RES 4: 121.35 1.382 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 120.09 1.236 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.96 High Dec 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.56 @ Close Dec 9
• SUP 1: 116.21 Low Dec 9
• SUP 2: 115.01 Low Nov 28 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 114.49 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 113.77 Low Nov 15

BTP futures trend signals remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The contract did trade higher last week and breached 118.12, the Dec 2 high. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a climb towards the 120.00 handle. On the downside, key support short-term has been defined at 115.01, the Nov 28 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Remains Above The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10 (cont)
• RES 2: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 4021.00/4049.50 High Dec 1 / High Feb 23 (cont)
• PRICE: 3920.00 @ 05:40 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: 3900.90/3840.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 3810.00 High Aug 17
• SUP 3: 3770.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3697.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions are bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. Recent high prints confirmed an extension of the uptrend that started in early October and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent break of 3810.00, Aug 17 high, has also strengthened the case for bulls. The focus is on 4049.50, Feb 23 high (cont). First support to watch is 3896.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Key Support Is At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4194.25 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4164.94 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4142.50 High Dec 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3957.50 @ 14:58 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 3951.09 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3782.750 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3670.00 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis are trading closer to last week's lows. The recent move down is - for now - considered corrective. The uptrend that started on Oct 13 remains intact, however, attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 3951.09. A clear break of this EMA would threaten bullish conditions and suggest potential for a deeper reversal. The bull trigger, to resume recent bullish activity, is at 4142.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $91.63 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $87.20/89.37 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 1
• RES 2: $83.90 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $80.81 Low Nov 28
• PRICE: $76.47 @ 06:56 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: $75.11 - Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: $72.33 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $68.31 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish and last week’s strong sell-off reinforces this condition. Price has cleared key support at $79.68, the Sep 26 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and moving averages are in a bear mode position, highlighting bearish sentiment. The focus is on $72.33 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at $80.81, the Nov 28 low.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Bear Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $89.20 - High Nov 11
• RES 3: $86.90 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $81.73 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $78.23 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $71.61 @ 07:01 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: $71.00 - Round number support
• SUP 2: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 3: $66.06 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $63.80 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish and last week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. $74.96, the Sep 28 low, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and sights are on the $70.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting the current trend direction. Key resistance is at $82.17, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1842.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 1: $1807.9/10.0 - High Aug 10 and key resistance / High Dec 5
• PRICE: $1788.6 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: $1761.8 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: $1664.8 - Low Sep 8

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest retracement (early last week) appears to be a correction. A fresh trend high on Dec 5 reinforced a bullish theme and price has recently breached $1786.5, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. $1800.0 has been cleared and sights are on $1807.9, the Aug 10 high that has been pierced. A clear break would be bullish. Key trend support is at $1729.0, the Nov 23 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence Extends

• RES 4: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 3: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $24.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $23.683 - High Dec 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.425 @ 08:09 GMT Dec 12
• SUP 1: $22.025 - Low Dec 6 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.007/20.585 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and the metal traded higher last week. The print on Friday above $23.517, Dec 5 high, highlights a continuation of the bull cycle and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This paves the way for a move towards the $24.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $22.025, the Dec 6 low.