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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Hammer Could Signal ST Base

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Price Signal Summary - EUR Hammer Could Signal Base

  • S&P E-Minis are trading at this week’s highs and sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. A bear trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. A fresh cycle low on Nov 19 marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30.
  • EURUSD traded higher Wednesday, marking an extension of the recovery from last week’s low. The Nov 22 price pattern - a hammer candle - highlights a possible short-term base and if correct, the start of a corrective cycle. EURGBP continues to trade inside a range. Attention is on a bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12 that highlights a possible short-term reversal. The recovery from the Nov 22 low is also seen as a potential bullish development. A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The break to a fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position.
  • The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04.
  • Bund futures traded higher Wednesday. Price has recently cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bearish theme and note that 133.39 has been breached, 50.0% of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 95.73 next, a Fibonacci projection.

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Price Signal Summary - EUR Hammer Could Signal Base

  • S&P E-Minis are trading at this week’s highs and sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. A bear trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. A fresh cycle low on Nov 19 marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30.
  • EURUSD traded higher Wednesday, marking an extension of the recovery from last week’s low. The Nov 22 price pattern - a hammer candle - highlights a possible short-term base and if correct, the start of a corrective cycle. EURGBP continues to trade inside a range. Attention is on a bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12 that highlights a possible short-term reversal. The recovery from the Nov 22 low is also seen as a potential bullish development. A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The break to a fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position.
  • The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04.
  • Bund futures traded higher Wednesday. Price has recently cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bearish theme and note that 133.39 has been breached, 50.0% of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 95.73 next, a Fibonacci projection.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

Keep reading...Show less