MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Hammer Could Signal ST Base

Price Signal Summary - EUR Hammer Could Signal Base

• S&P E-Minis are trading at this week’s highs and sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. A bear trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. A fresh cycle low on Nov 19 marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30.
• EURUSD traded higher Wednesday, marking an extension of the recovery from last week’s low. The Nov 22 price pattern - a hammer candle - highlights a possible short-term base and if correct, the start of a corrective cycle. EURGBP continues to trade inside a range. Attention is on a bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12 that highlights a possible short-term reversal. The recovery from the Nov 22 low is also seen as a potential bullish development. A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The break to a fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position.
• The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04.
• Bund futures traded higher Wednesday. Price has recently cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bearish theme and note that 133.39 has been breached, 50.0% of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 95.73 next, a Fibonacci projection.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching The 20-Day EMA   

• RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7  
• RES 3: 1.0764 50-day EMA  
• RES 2: 1.0618 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0588 High Nov 27     
• PRICE: 1.0551 @ 05:58 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 1.0425/0335 Low Nov 26 / 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  
• SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg     

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday, marking an extension of the recovery from last week’s low. The Nov 22 price pattern - a hammer candle - highlights a possible short-term base and if correct, the start of a corrective cycle. The trend is oversold and a continued recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 1.0618, the 20-day EMA. For bears, a move through 1.0335, the Nov 22 low, would resume the downtrend. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends 

• RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 
• RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2734/2877 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• RES 1: 1.2694 High Nov 27  
• PRICE: 1.2660 @ 06:15 GMT Nov 28 
• SUP 1: 1.2487 Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
• SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend 
• SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support     

Gains yesterday in GBPUSD highlight the possible start of a corrective cycle. A move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 1.2734, the 20-day EMA. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish, with moving average studies in a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of the trend would open 1.2446, the May 9 low. The bear trigger is 1.2487, the Nov 22 low.   

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Above Its Recent Lows        

• RES 4: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 0.8404 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8359/76 50-day EMA / High Nov 19
• PRICE: 0.8331 @ 06:39 GMT Nov 28 
• SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
• SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support  

EURGBP continues to trade inside a range. Attention is on a bullish engulfing candle pattern on Nov 12 that highlights a possible short-term reversal. The recovery from the Nov 22 low is also seen as a potential bullish development. Furthermore, the 20- and 50 day EMAs have been pierced. A clear break of both EMAs would strengthen the risk of a reversal and open 0.8404, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support is at 0.8260, the Nov 11 low.     

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle      

• RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19  
• RES 3: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing 
• RES 2: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 153.40 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 151.50 @ 06:51 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 150.46 Low Nov 27
• SUP 2: 150.19 38.2% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15  
• SUP 3: 149.09 Low Oct 21  
• SUP 4: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15

This week’s move lower in USDJPY marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 150.19 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.   

EURJPY TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone           

• RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg    
• RES 3: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 1: 160.71/162.86 High Nov 27 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 159.85 @ 07:00 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 159.10 Low Nov 27
• SUP 2: 158.71 Low Oct 2  
• SUP 3: 157.87 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 157.05 Low Sep 18  

EURJPY remains soft and the cross traded lower Wednesday. The latest move down suggests scope for a deeper retracement. Potential is seen for an extension towards 157.87, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 164.76, the Nov 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a possible reversal. Initial firm resistance to watch is 162.86, the 20-day EMA.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South          

• RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9   
• RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13             
• RES 2: 0.6608/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 1: 0.6538/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
• PRICE: 0.6483 @ 07:56 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 0.6434 Low Nov 26
• SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023

A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The break to a fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6538, the 20-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish           

• RES 4: 1.4289 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
• RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4178 High Nov 26 
• PRICE: 1.4025 @ 07:58 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 1.3960/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support  
• SUP 2: 1.3852 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
• SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17

The trend outlook in USDCAD remains bullish and an early strong rally on Tuesday reinforces this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, the latest pullback is considered corrective.   

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Still In Play           

• RES 4: 135.24 High Oct 3         
• RES 3: 134.87 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg 
• RES 2: 134.63 High Oct 4
• RES 1: 134.33 High Nov 27                          
• PRICE: 134.06 @ 05:32 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 132.95/75 50- and 20-day EMA values 
• SUP 2  131.28 Low Nov 14             
• SUP 3: 130.58 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing 

Bund futures traded higher Wednesday. Price has recently cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bearish theme and note that 133.39 has been breached, 50.0% of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. The move higher has also resulted in a breach of; 134.05, the 61.8% retracement point, and 134.25, the high on Oct 16 and 18. This opens 134.87 next, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at 132.75, the 20-day EMA.                  

BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains     

• RES 4: 120.190 High Oct 3       
• RES 3: 119.949 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg      
• RES 2: 119.620 High Oct 18     
• RES 1: 119.600 High Nov 27                        
• PRICE: 119.420 @ 05:53 GMT Nov 28  
• SUP 1: 118.906/835 50- and 20-day EMA values            
• SUP 2: 118.150 Low Nov 14  
• SUP 3: 118.680 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 4: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24   

The continued appreciation in Bobl futures highlights an extension of the current cycle. The contract has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and today’s move higher has resulted in a print above 119.519, 61.8% of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 119.949, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 118.835, the 20-day EMA.   

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs      

• RES 4: 107.335 High Oct 1 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 107.225 High Oct 3  
• RES 2: 107.108 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - 31 bear leg   
• RES 1: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger     
• PRICE: 106.925 @ 06:07 GMT Nov 28   
• SUP 1: 106.802/645 20-day EMA / Low Nov 18           
• SUP 2: 106.485 Low Nov 5
• SUP 3: 106.375 Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing

Schatz futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The contract traded higher on Nov 22, extending its bull cycle. Both the 20- and 50-day EMAs have been breached and attention is on 107.070, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose 107.108, 76.4% of the bear leg between Oct 1 - 31. A break of 107.108 would strengthen a bullish theme. Key short-term support is at 106.645, the Nov 18 low. Initial support is 106.802, 20-day EMA.                               

GILT TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Bull Cycle Still In Play   

• RES 4: 96.33 2.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing    
• RES 3: 96.03 2.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing    
• RES 2: 95.73 1.764 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing   
• RES 1: 95.70 High Nov 27               
• PRICE: 94.42 @ Close Nov 27
• SUP 1: 94.66 Low Nov 25                     
• SUP 2: 93.96 Low Nov 22  
• SUP 3: 93.40 Low Nov 18 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 93.00 Round number support

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 95.73 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the initial key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would be a bearish development.               

BTP TECHS: (Z4) Breaches A Key Retracement Level                    

• RES 4: 123.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 122.62 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 122.41 High Oct 18 / 21  
• RES 1: 121.82 High Nov 27 
• PRICE: 121.67 @ Close Nov 27
• SUP 1: 120.53 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.63 Low Nov 18    
• SUP 3: 119.12 Low Nov 13 
• SUP 4: 117.88 Low Nov 7 and a key support  

BTP futures traded higher again, on Wednesday, as the contract extends the  current bull phase. The recovery has resulted in a print above resistance at 121.50, 76.4% of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg (pierced). A clear break of this level would signal scope for a full retracement to 122.62, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support to watch is 119.63, the Nov 18 low. Clearance of this level would be a bearish development.          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Trend Condition Remains Bearish         

• RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21 
• RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger       
• RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 1: 4867.13 50-day EMA       
• PRICE: 4775.00 @ 06:18 GMT Nov 28 
• SUP 1: 4699.00 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger      
• SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9   
• SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6   

A bear trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. A fresh cycle low on Nov 19 marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has traded through 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4662.12, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, where a break would highlight a reversal. 

E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed    

• RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
• RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing   
• RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 proj of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
• RES 1: 6053.25 High Nov 11 and the bull trigger      
• PRICE: 6022.25 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 5951.31 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5868.74 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5814.75 Low Nov 6   
• SUP 4: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support

S&P E-Minis are trading at this week’s highs and sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 6053.25, the Nov 11 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 5951.31, the 20-day EMA.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G5) Bearish Outlook           

• RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18 
• RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
• RES 1: $75.79 - High Nov 5       
• PRICE: $72.16 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29   
• SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

Brent futures are unchanged. A short-term bearish condition remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. A breach of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is $75.79, the Nov 5 high.           

WTI TECHS: (F5) Still Looking For Weakness        

• RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5  
• RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
• RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $72.41 - High Nov 7   
• PRICE: $68.53 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29     
• SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.            

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective    

• RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
• RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg     
• RES 1: $2651.9/2721.4 - 20-day EMA / High Nov 25     
• PRICE: $2638.4 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $2605.3 - Low Nov 26 
• SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
• SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
• SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4   

The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Monday’s move lower is - for now - considered corrective, despite it being a very sharp pullback. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, Monday’s high. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. A break would be bearish.              

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play             

• RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg  
• RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing 
• RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $31.243/537 - 50-day EMA / High Nov 19                           
• PRICE: 29.864 @ 08:02 GMT Nov 28 
• SUP 1: $29.677/642 - Low Nov 14 / Intraday low       
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

Medium-term bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 still appears to be a correction. However, this corrective cycle remains in play. Price has recently breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. This has exposed $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.243, the 50-day EMA.