MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/JPY Strengthens S/T Bullish Theme

Price Signal Summary – EUR/JPY Strengthens S/T Bullish Theme

• S&P E-Minis have recovered from last Friday’s low and the contract is again trading higher. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. The primary trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Moving studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Key short-term support to watch is 4445.90, the 50-day EMA.
• The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair remains above support. Attention is on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2881. USDJPY traded higher yesterday, however, the pair remains below last Friday’s high - for now. Trend signals remain bearish and the recent impulsive rally appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 140.25. USDCAD is holding on to its recent gains. The broader trend outlook remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3460.
• Gold is trading closer to its recent lows following the pullback from $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. Price is trading ahead of the next key support at $2013.2 the 50-day EMA. A break of this level, if seen, would expose key support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. Trend conditions in WTI futures are unchanged and the signals remain bearish. Resistance to watch is $74.62, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced late December.
• Bund futures maintain a weaker tone and the contract traded to a fresh short-term low yesterday. Recent weakness below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper correction, opening the key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Gilt futures are consolidating and maintain a softer tone with the contract trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, suggesting scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle.

EURUSD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• PRICE: 1.0979 @ 05:37 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 1.0908/77 Trendline drawn from the Nov 1 low / Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD remains inside its recent range. Trendline support - at 1.0908 - drawn off the Nov 1 low remains intact and MA studies are in a bull mode position. This highlights an uptrend and suggests the recent move lower has been a correction. Note too that a recent golden cross in the DMA space (50- rising above the 200-dma), is also a bullish signal. Support to watch is 1.0877, Friday’s low. The bull trigger is 1.1139, Dec 28 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2767 @ 05:48 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 1.2611/2598 Low Jan 03 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair remains above support. Attention is on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low. The 50-day EMA lies just below at 1.2598. Clearance of both support points would highlight a short-term top.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8644 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8601 @ 06:02 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 0.8587 Low Jan 09
• SUP 2: 0.8571 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 5

EURGBP maintains a short-term bearish tone and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The recent break of the 50-day EMA strengthens a bearish theme and an extension lower would open 0.8571, the Dec 15 low, ahead of key support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.8715, the Dec 28 high. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8644, is the initial firm resistance to watch.

USDJPY TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 3: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 2: 146.59 High Dec 11
• RES 1: 145.97 High Jan 05 and short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 145.53 @ 06:19 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 142.86 Low Jan 4
• SUP 2: 141.86 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 139.11 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

USDJPY traded higher yesterday, however, the pair remains below last Friday’s high - for now. Trend signals remain bearish and the recent impulsive rally appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 140.25, the Dec 28 low. Resistance to watch is 145.97, the Jan 5 high. A clear break of this level would be a bullish development. This would instead signal scope for a climb towards 147.32, the Dec 7 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 161.69 76.4% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 1: 160.07 61.8% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• PRICE: 159.79 @ 06:37 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 155.08/153.23 Low Jan 02 / Dec 07 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support

EURJPY traded sharply higher yesterday. The rally strengthens a short-term bullish theme and has resulted in a clear break of resistance at 158.57, the Dec 19 high. Note too that the 50-day EMA has also been cleared. Attention is on 160.07, 61.8% of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg. A break would open 161.69, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 157.21, the Jan 9 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• PRICE: 0.6718 @ 07:52 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 0.6641 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 0.6615 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 26 low
• SUP 3: 0.6571 50.0% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support

AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode and the pair is trading closer to recent lows. The recent move lower appears to be a correction and the medium-term trend direction remains up. Moving average studies highlight an uptrend and trendline support - at 0.6615 - drawn from the late October low, remains intact. The trendline represents an important support. On the upside key resistance is unchanged at 0.6871, the Dec 28 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.3538 50.0% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3481 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.3460 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3415 High Jan 09
• PRICE: 1.3367 @ 08:04 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 1.3229/3177 Low Jan 2 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 2: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull phase

USDCAD is holding on to its recent gains. The broader trend outlook remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3460. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and open 1.3481, the 200-dma. For bears, a move lower would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to 1.3177, the Dec 27 low and bear trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Heads South

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.07 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 135.03 @ 05:15 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 134.87 Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase

Bund futures maintain a weaker tone and the contract traded to a fresh short-term low yesterday. Recent weakness below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper correction, opening the key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Momentum studies are pointing south, highlighting the short-term bearish threat. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open 138.84, the Dec 27 high and a bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 136.07, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.640/830 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.581 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.990 @ 05:25 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 117.900 Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 117.800/85 Low Dec 8 and a key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 117.510 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 117.060 Low Dec 1

A corrective cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The recent move through the 20-day EMA highlights potential for a deeper pullback, exposing support at 117.800 and the 50-day EMA at 117.785. Clearance of both support points would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is 119.830, Dec 27 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.240/360 20-day EMA / Low Jan 3
• PRICE: 105.985 @ 05:39 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 105.935 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 105.660 High Nov 17

Schatz futures remain bearish and the contract has traded lower this week. Key short-term support at 105.955, the Dec 13 low, has been cleared. This strengthens the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 105.780 next, the Dec 1 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 106.240, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to ease bearish pressure.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 103.94 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 103.33 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 100.85 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 100.24 @ Close Jan 10
• SUP 1: 99.60 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 97.39 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 96.67 Low Dec 5

Gilt futures are consolidating and maintain a softer tone with the contract trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, suggesting scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle. This has exposed support at 98.97, the Dec 6 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 101.98, the Jan 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Short-Term Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.77 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 117.94 @ Close Jan 10
• SUP 1: 117.24 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 116.09 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

The recent move down in BTP futures is considered corrective. However, price has traded through support around the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a continuation lower near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA and a key support, at 116.09. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.77, the Jan 4 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 121.43, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4599.00/4634.00 High Jan 2 / High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4522.00 @ 05:55 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 4445.90/4444.0 50-day EMA and a key support / Low Jan 1
• SUP 2: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Nov 10

The primary trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. Moving studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Key short-term support to watch is 4445.90, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 4634.00, the Dec 14 high and bull trigger.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4841.50 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4829.50 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: 4702.00 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 4694.00 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 3: 4668.13 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

S&P E-Minis have recovered from last Friday’s low and the contract is again trading higher. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Support at the 20-day EMA of 4760.92 has recently been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and open the 50-day EMA, at 4668.13.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Bear Trend Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $79.41/81.45 - High Jan 4 / High Dec 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: $77.42 @ 07:03 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures continue to trade below key short-term resistance at $81.45, the Dec 26 high. The outlook remains bearish and the reversal off the late December highs means that price has not remained above the 50-day EMA. This suggests that the Dec 13 - 26 recovery was a correction and that the primary trend direction is down. Attention is on $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. Clearance of $81.45 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Trend Signals Still Bearish

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $74.62/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
• PRICE: $71.97 @ 07:16 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: $69.28 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $67.98 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures are unchanged and the signals remain bearish. Resistance to watch is $74.62, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced late December. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is $67.98, the Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 2: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $2064.0/2088.5 - High Jan 5 / High Dec 28
• PRICE: $2035.0 @ 07:22 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: $2013.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold is trading closer to its recent lows following the pullback from $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. Price is trading ahead of the next key support at $2013.2 the 50-day EMA. A break of this level, if seen, would expose key support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of $2088.5 would reinstate the bull cycle that started Dec 13. This would open $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg, ahead of key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4.

SILVER TECHS: Trendline Break Highlights Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.548 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.090 @ 07:30 GMT Jan 11
• SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver is unchanged. Recent weakness resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Oct 5 low. This highlights a bearish threat and exposes key support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a continuation lower and open $21.883, the Nov 13 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $24.606, the Dec 22 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bullish theme.