MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/JPY Tops Initial Resistance

Price Signal Summary - EUR/JPY Tops Initial Resistance

• S&P E-Minis maintains a firmer tone following last week’s gains. The contract has traded above the 50-day EMA yesterday, at 4188.24 today. A clear break of this average would strengthen current bullish conditions and signal potential for a climb towards a key resistance at 4303.50. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following recent gains and the break above the 50-day EMA. Gains are still considered corrective, however, attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high.
• EURUSD edged off recent highs Tuesday and has so far reversed a challenge on the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0795 today. EURGBP is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The recent break higher on May 24 reinstated a short-term bullish theme and this has exposed 0.8619, May 12 high and the next hurdle for bulls. EURJPY maintains a firmer tone and the cross has traded higher again today. Price is above initial resistance at 138.32, May 9 high and attention turns to the key resistance and the bull trigger at 140.00, Apr 21 high.
• Gold traded lower Tuesday and remains below its last week's high of $1869.7 (May 24). The yellow metal has recently traded above the 20-day EMA, currently at $1855.7. This suggests potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1878.2. WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract has this week breached resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and paves the way for a test of the $120.00 handle.
• Bund futures traded lower again Tuesday and breached initial support at 151.89, May 18 low. The primary trend direction is down. Fresh cycle lows in April and May, maintained the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Tuesday to extend the pullback from its recent highs in May. The contract is approaching its key near-term support at 115.70, the May 9 low and bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Channel Top Still Intact

• RES 4: 1.0954 High Apr 11
• RES 3: 1.0936 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 1.0795 Bear channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 1: 1.0787 High May 30
• PRICE: 1.0711 @ 06:18 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 1.0643/0533 Low May 25 / Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461 Low May 18 and19
• SUP 3: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support

EURUSD edged off recent highs Tuesday and has so far reversed a challenge on the top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0795 today. This level marks a key short-term resistance where a break would strengthen bullish conditions and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. The primary trend is down though and a reversal lower would reinforce a bearish theme and open 1.0533 initially.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 1.2800 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2719 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2667 High May 27
• PRICE: 1.2579 @ 06:24 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 1.2547 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2472/38 Low May 24 and 20
• SUP 3: 1.2317 Low May 17
• SUP 4: 1.2156 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD is largely unchanged and still consolidating. The pair maintains a firmer tone though. Price last week traded above resistance at 1.2638, May 4 high. This reinforced a bullish set-up and signals scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2719 - an important resistance point. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 1.2156, May 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 1.2472, low May 24.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Stays Intact

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8587 High May 24
• PRICE: 0.8515 @ 06:36 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 0.8488/8433 20-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The recent break higher on May 24 reinstated a short-term bullish theme and this has exposed 0.8619, May 12 high and the next hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would resume a 3.5 month uptrend. Initial support lies at 0.8488, the 20-day EMA ahead of a firmer short-term level at 0.8433, May 23 low. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8393, the May 17 low and bear trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Defined At 126.36

• RES 4: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 3: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 131.35 High May 9 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.78 High May 17
• PRICE: 129.27 @ 06:45 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 126.36 Low May 24
• SUP 2: 126.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY has managed to recover from its recent lows and support at the 50-day EMA remains intact - the average intersects at 126.20. The move higher signals the end of the recent corrective pullback and also highlights the point that corrections in USDJPY are shallow. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at 131.35, May 9 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 126.36, May 24 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance Zone

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 138.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 137.87 @ 15:33 BST May 31
• SUP 1: 136.35 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 135.44/133.93 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 133.01 100-dma
• SUP 4: 132.66 Low May 12 and the bear trigger

EURJPY maintains a firmer tone and the cross has traded higher again today. Price is above initial resistance at 138.32, May 9 high and attention turns to the key resistance and the bull trigger at 140.00, Apr 21 high. Key support has been defined at 132.66, the May 12 low. A break of this support would be a bearish development. Initial firm support is at 135.44, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7245 50.0% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7204 High May 31
• PRICE: 0.7166 @ 07:01 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 0.7105/7036 20-day EMA / Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.6950/29 Low May 18 / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6784 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 2 - 4 price swing

AUDUSD is trading at its recent highs. A bull theme remains in place and the pair continues to test resistance around the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would open 0.7266, the May 4/5 and a bull trigger. Gains are still considered corrective however and the primary trend direction is down. The bear trigger is 0.6829, May 12 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 0.7036, May 25 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2982 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.2896 High May 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2787 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2665 @ 07:22 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 1.2629 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 1.2562 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.2536 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21

USDCAD maintains a softer tone following recent weakness. The cross has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and has also registered a print below 1.2660, the 61.8% retracement of the bull run from Apr 5 - May 12. A clear break of this level would open 1.2562, the 76.4% retracement. On the upside, a key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2896, the May 18 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Eyeing The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 157.29 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 155.52/89/156.00 50-day EMA / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 153.45/155.33 20-day EMA / High May 12
• PRICE: 151.63 @ 05:11 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 150.49 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 149.49 Low Jul 13 2015 (cont)

Bund futures traded lower again Tuesday and breached initial support at 151.89, May 18 low. The primary trend direction is down. Fresh cycle lows in April and May, maintained the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. MA studies are in a bear mode condition, reinforcing the trend condition. A continuation lower would open 150.49, the bear trigger and May 9 low. Firm trend resistance is 155.33, the May 12 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Extends Pullback From Last Weeks High

• RES 4: 129.350 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 128.380 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 127.930 High May 26
• RES 1: 127.299 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 126.490 @ 05:22 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 126.010 Low May 6 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower again Tuesday and have extended the pullback from last week’s high of 127.930 (May 26). Trend conditions remain bearish and the move lower is potentially an early signal of a resumption of the broader downtrend. Further weakness would open 126.010, May 6 low and the bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial resistance has been defined at 127.930.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 110.690 High May 12 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 110.500 High May 26
• RES 1: 110.325 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.095 @ 05:27 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 109.980 Low May 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 109.555 Low Oct 31 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 109.340 Low Oct 28 011 (cont)

Schatz futures traded through initial support yesterday of 110.110, May 18 low. A continuation lower has refocused attention on the bear trigger at 109.980, May 6 low, where a break would resume the primary downtrend. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode highlighting the broader market sentiment. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 110.500, the May 26 high.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Approaching Its Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 119.25 High May 19
• RES 2: 118.63 High May 24 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 117.49/118.51 High May 31 / High May 26
• PRICE: 115.97 @ Close May 31
• SUP 1: 115.76 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 115.54 1.54 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.31 1.618 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures traded sharply lower Tuesday to extend the pullback from its recent highs in May. The contract is approaching its key near-term support at 115.70, the May 9 low and bear trigger. The primary trend direction remains down and a break of 115.70 would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. This would open 115.50 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 117.49.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Watching Key Support

• RES 4: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 133.53 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 132.16 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.09/131.24 High May 26 / High May 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 126.87 @ Close May 31
• SUP 1: 125.54 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 125.02 1.236 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.02 Low Mar 18 2020 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 123.41 1.382 proj of the of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish. The contract traded lower yesterday and in the process breached support at 127.24, May 11 low. The move lower marks an extension of the pullback from the May 12 high of 131.24. A continuation lower would expose the key support and bear trigger at 126.54, May 9 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 130.09, May 26 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Maintains A Firmer Short-Term Tone

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 1: 3850.00 High May 30
• PRICE: 3805.00 @ 05:50 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 3708.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3576.00/3466.00 Low May 19 / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3400.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following recent gains and the break above the 50-day EMA. Gains are still considered corrective, however, attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high and the key resistance at 3944.00, the Mar 29 high. A break of the latter would strengthen current bullish conditions. On the downside, a firm short-term support has been defined at 3576.00, May 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (M2): 50-Day EMA Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4188.24/4202.25 50-day EMA / High May 31
• PRICE: 4131.00 @ 06:54 BST June 1
• SUP 1: 3960.50/3807.50 Low May 26 / Low May 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintains a firmer tone following last week’s gains. The contract has traded above the 50-day EMA yesterday, at 4188.24 today. A clear break of this average would strengthen current bullish conditions and signal potential for a climb towards a key resistance at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. The recent climb is still considered corrective and the primary trend is down. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger 3807.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $124.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $123.49 - 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: $121.94 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $120.80 - High May 31
• PRICE: $115.73 @ 07:03 BST Jun 1
• SUP 1: $115.15 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $110.72 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $106.20 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support

Brent futures faced some resistance Tuesday but remain in an uptrend and a pullback is considered corrective. The recent climb signals scope for an extension towards the contract high of 124.42 the Mar 7 high. A break of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at $110.72, is seen as initial support. A break would instead threaten the current bull theme.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Sights Remain On $120.00

• RES 4: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $123.35 - 1.236 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 2: $120.00 - Psychological Resistance
• RES 1: $119.98 - High May 31
• PRICE: $115.98 @ 07:44 BST June 1
• SUP 1: $109.54 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $96.93 - Low May 11

WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract has this week breached resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and paves the way for a test of the $120.00 handle, and potentially beyond. Initial firm support is seen at $109.54, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight the start of a correction.

GOLD TECHS: Pulls Back From Recent Highs

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1878.2 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1869.7 - High May 24
• PRICE: $1834.4 @ 07:19 BST June 1
• SUP 1: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021
• SUP 4: $1749.3 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold traded lower Tuesday and remains below its last week's high of $1869.7 (May 24). The yellow metal has recently traded above the 20-day EMA, currently at $1855.7 This suggests potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1878.2. Gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. A stronger resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on the May 16, $1787.0 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $22.942 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.109/446 - 20-day EMA / High May 27
• PRICE: $21.582 @ 08:02 BST June 1
• SUP 1: $21.283/20.464 - Low May 19 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish. The metal has found resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A break above this level is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would open the 50-day EMA at $22.942. For bears, continued weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, the May 13 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.