MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Cracks Support

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Cracks Support

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent gains reinforce this theme and the break of 5257.25, Mar 8 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment. A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract has traded to fresh cycle highs this week. The climb once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• EURUSD is trading lower and this has resulted in a break of support at 1.0796, the Feb 29 low. The move down reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 1.0762 next, the Feb 20 low, ahead of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger. USDJPY remains in consolidation mode and the recent pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight a clear uptrend. AUDUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair is trading lower today. The reversal lower on Mar 21 reinstates a bearish threat and exposes 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would open the key support and bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The initial rally on Mar 21 delivered another all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a break of $79.87, the Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year.
• Bund futures traded higher Wednesday, extending the recovery from 131.54, the Mar 18 low. The contract has also breached the 50-day EMA - at 132.97. The clear break of this EMA is a bullish development and a continuation higher would open the key resistance at 134.15. Gilt futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A resumption of gains would expose key short-term resistance at 100.37, the Mar 13 low, where a break would strengthen any developing bullish theme.

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: 1.1034 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0860/0943 20-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 1.0791 @ 08:19 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 1.0762 Low Feb 20
• SUP 2: 1.0732 Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: 1.0695 Low Feb 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

EURUSD is trading lower and this has resulted in a break of support at 1.0796, the Feb 29 low. The move down reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 1.0762 next, the Feb 20 low, ahead of key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger. On the upside, initial resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0860. For bulls, a move above 1.0943, the Mar 21 high, is required to ease bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 3: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2693/2803 20-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 1.2629 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 1.2575 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 1.2536 Low Feb 14
• SUP 3: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2465, 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

A bearish threat in GBPUSD remains present and the pair is consolidating closer to its recent lows. 1.2600, the Mar 1 low, has been breached and this paves the way for a move towards 1.2536, the Feb 14 low and 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and a key support. Moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend. A break of 1.2803, the Mar 21 high, is required to ease bearish pressure. First resistance is 1.2693, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8602 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 0.8567 @ 06:26 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 0.8530/8504 Low Mar 21 / 08
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains and the short-term outlook remains bullish. The breach of resistance at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high, confirms a range breakout and a potential reversal, highlighting a short-term bullish theme. This opens 0.8607 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger lies at 0.8493, the Aug 23 2023 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 152.66 1.236 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 151.97 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 151.34 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 150.13/149.13 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1

USDJPY remains in consolidation mode and the recent pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight a clear uptrend. Sights are on 151.91/95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. The resistance has been tested, a clear break would resume the long-term uptrend and open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection. Support is at 150.13, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 167.45 1.382 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 166.81 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 163.63 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 163.04 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 161.83 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 3: 160.22 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 159.47 Low Feb 8

The uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The rally on Mar 20, through 164.30, the Nov 16 ‘23 high and a medium-term bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the long-term uptrend. The break higher opens the 166.00 handle. Initial firm support lies at 163.04, the 20-day EMA. Trendline support, drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, is at 161.83.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Tone

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6564/6635 50-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 0.6505 @ 07:54 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 0.6504 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair is trading lower today. The reversal lower on Mar 21 reinstates a bearish threat and exposes 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would open the key support and bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a short-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6635, the Mar 21 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3614 High Mar 19 / 20 / 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3592 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 1.3456/20 Low Mar 21 / 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

A bullish theme in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3614, the Mar 19 high and a recent congestion level. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that began on Dec 27. This would expose 1.3623, a Fibonacci retracement, and 1.3661, the Nov 27 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.3420, the Mar 8 low. A break would be bearish.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
• RES 3: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 2: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 133.48/69 High Mar 27 / 12
• PRICE: 133.26 @ 05:30 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 132.28/131.54 Low Mar 22 / 18
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures traded higher Wednesday, extending the recovery from 131.54, the Mar 18 low. The contract has also breached the 50-day EMA - at 132.97. The clear break of this EMA is a bullish development and a continuation higher would open the key resistance at 134.15, the Mar 8 high. Key support has been defined at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level is required to confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started last December.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Corrective Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 118.310 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 118.190 @ 05:48 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 117.600/340 Low Mar 21 / 18
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The latest recovery appears to be a correction, however, the current bull cycle remains intact and a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 118.790, the Feb 15 / Mar 8 high. For bears, a reversal lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 2: 106.010 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 / 12
• PRICE: 105.690 @ 06:03 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 105.615/515 Low Mar 21 / 15
• SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)

Schatz futures are unchanged. A downtrend remains intact, however, a S/T corrective cycle is in play and the contract is trading above its recent low. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 106.010, the Mar 8 high. A break of this level would be bullish. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 105.490, Feb 29 low. A break would resume the downtrend that started in December last year.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number support
• RES 3: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• PRICE: 99.76 @ Close Mar 27
• SUP 1: 99.04/98.05 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A resumption of gains would expose key short-term resistance at 100.37, the Mar 13 low, where a break would strengthen any developing bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 98.05, the Mar 15 low. A break would be bearish. For now, 98.05 and 100.37 remain the key short-term directional triggers.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.28 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 119.47 @ Close Mar 27
• SUP 1: 118.74/33 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 118.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures are slightly firmer but continue to trade below their recent highs. A short-term bullish theme remains intact following the recovery that started on Feb 22. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA - at 118.74. A break would signal scope for a deeper retracement and this would open 118.00, the 50-day EMA and a key short-term support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 120.65, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Northbound

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5074.70 1.236 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 5060.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 5055.00 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 4936.90 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4872.00/4826.00 Low Mar 11 / 5
• SUP 3: 4771.00 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 4711.00 Low Feb 19

A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract has traded to fresh cycle highs this week. The climb once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5074.7, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 4936.90, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 5416.33 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5322.75 High Mar 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5303.25 @ 07:26 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 5254.71 Bull channel base drawn from the Jan 17 low
• SUP 2: 5226.59 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5157.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 5104.90 50-day EMA

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent gains reinforce this theme and the break of 5257.25, Mar 8 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5416.33, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 17 low. Initial firm support is 5226.59, the 20-day EMA. A move lower is considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $88.51 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.62 - High Oct 20 ‘23
• RES 1: $86.92 - High Mar 19
• PRICE: $85.73 @ 06:58 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $84.06 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $82.23 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently cleared former resistance at $83.38, the Mar 1 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position and this highlights a clear rising trend. Sights are on $87.62, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $84.06, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Bull Phase Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $84.87 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $83.87 - High Oct 20 ‘23
• RES 1: $83.12 - High Mar 19
• PRICE: $81.83 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $79.97 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.05/75.50 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a break of $79.87, the Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year. Sights are on $83.87 next, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. A break of this level would open $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high and a key resistance. Support to watch is $79.97, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2282.6 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2253.6 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2220.9 - High Mar 21
• PRICE: $2195.2 @ 07:25 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $2147.9 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $2098.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The initial rally on Mar 21 delivered another all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. This signals scope for a climb towards $2230.1, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend support has been defined at $2146.2, the Mar 18 low.

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $26.753 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 ‘22
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 1: $25.774 - High Mar 21
• PRICE: $24.463 @ 08:02 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $24.381 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.811 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

The latest pullback in Silver appears to be a correction. Recent gains reinforce a bullish theme. Resistance at $25.761, Dec 4 high, has been pierced and a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and expose key resistance at $26.135, May 5 ‘23 high. A move through this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm support lies at $24.381, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at $23.811.