MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Gains Considered Corrective at These Levels

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Gains Considered Corrective at These Levels

• A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and the contract traded lower this week, extending the current downleg. The recent break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low, reinforced bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a softer tone and the latest bounce is considered corrective. This week’s extension reinforces current conditions and key support at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low, has been breached.
• EURUSD has recovered from this week’s low. Gains are considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. Fresh cycle lows this week maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies are in a bear mode position. EURGBP has pulled back from its recent high earlier this week. A short-term bull cycle remains in play and the move lower is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. AUDUSD reversed course yesterday and the pair is firmer again today. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. This week’s break of support at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, highlights a resumption of the downtrend.
• Gold sold off sharply this week, reinforcing bearish conditions. The move lower has resulted in a break of support at $1901.10 and this has been followed by a move through $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s recovery has confirmed a resumption of the trend - resistance at $92.43, Sep 19 high, has been cleared. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Bund futures traded sharply lower yesterday and the contract remains soft. The recent breach of support at 129.72, the Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger, reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. Gilt futures remain bearish and yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this condition. The contract has breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support. This has opened 92.71, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.0781 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.0737 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 1.0674 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0609 High Sep 26
• PRICE: 1.0580 @ 05:48 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 1.0484 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 1.0411 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0291 Low Nov 30 2022

EURUSD has recovered from this week’s low. Gains are considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. Fresh cycle lows this week maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies are in a bear mode position. A resumption of the trend would open 1.0484 next, the Jan 6 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0674, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal the start of a correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2548 High Nov 11
• RES 3: 1.2521 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2369/2425 20-day EMA / High Sep 19
• RES 1: 1.2265 High Sep 25
• PRICE: 1.2223 @ 06:00 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 1.2111 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 1.2075 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.2028 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD remains in a clear downtrend despite Thursday’s bounce - a correction - and the trend condition remains bearish. The extension lower this week strengthens the case for bears and maintains the downtrending price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, The focus is on 1.2075, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2369, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8736 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8706 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8656 @ 06:10 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 0.8630 Low Sep 28 and the 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8611/8569 50-day EMA / Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 06

EURGBP has pulled back from its recent high earlier this week. A short-term bull cycle remains in play and the move lower is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. This was followed by a move above 0.8670, trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high. A clear break of the trendline would strengthen bullish conditions. Initial firm support lies at 0.8630, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: 150.00 Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 149.71 High Oct 24 2022 and high Sep 27
• PRICE: 149.32 @ 06:36 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 147.82/147.32 20-day EMA / Low Sep 21
• SUP 2: 146.44 Low Sep 12
• SUP 3: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 145.85 50-day EMA

The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. 149.71, the Oct 24 2022 high, has been tested and attention is on the psychological 150.00 handle. A break of this barrier would reinforce bullish conditions. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 147.82, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.65/159.76 High Sep 13 / High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 157.82 @ 07:02 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 156.59 Low Sep 11 and a key support
• SUP 2: 156.35 Low Aug 8
• SUP 3: 155.54 Low Aug 3
• SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally

EURJPY traded higher Thursday and the cross continues to trade inside a range. The cross remains above the 50-day EMA - at 157.19. A clear breach of it would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal that would expose 155.54, the Aug 3 low. The bull trigger is unchanged at 159.76, Aug 30 high where a break would resume the uptrend and open 160.66, a Fibonacci projection. First resistance is 158.65, the Sep 13 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6487 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.6477 @ 07:56 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 0.6331 Low Sep 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

AUDUSD reversed course yesterday and the pair is firmer again today. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. This week’s break of support at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, highlights a resumption of the downtrend and opens 0.6287 next, a Fibonacci projection point. On the upside, key short-term trend resistance to watch is 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A break of this level would be bullish.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Trend Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3705 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3593/95 High Sep 12 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3543 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 1.3462 @ 07:28 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 1.3424/3381 Low Sep 22 / 19
• SUP 2: 1.3323 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Sep 7 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
• SUP 4: 1.3235 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Sep 7 bull leg

USDCAD remains in a corrective cycle. The short-term outlook is unchanged and a downtrend remains intact - the recent breach of 1.3490, the Sep 1 low, and the move below the 50-day EMA, reinforced a bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would open 1.3323 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Next resistance to watch is 1.3593, the Sep 12 high. Key resistance is at 1.3695, the Sep 7 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Impulsive Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 130.19 High Sep 22 and key resistance
• RES 3: 129.80 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 129.23 High Sep 27
• RES 1: 128.59 High Sep 28
• PRICE: 127.49 @ 05:26 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 127.01 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 127.54 1.764 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.69 2.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures traded sharply lower yesterday and the contract remains soft. The recent breach of support at 129.72, the Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger, reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. This week’s move lower has strengthened the bearish case. Sights are on 126.54 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is at 130.19, the Sep 22 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Sharp Sell-Off Reinforces Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 116.210 High Sep 18
• RES 3: 116.150 High Sep 22 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 116.065 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.570 High Sep 28
• PRICE: 115.130 @ 05:37 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 114.880 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 114.817 2.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.691 2.382 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.590 2.50 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract traded sharply lower yesterday, extending the bear cycle. The recent break of 116.00, the Aug 15 low and a key support, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and this week’s sell-off has strengthened the case for bears. The focus is on 114.817, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at 116.150, the Sep 22 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 105.170 High Sep 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.115 High Sep 15
• RES 2: 105.033 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 104.995 High Sep 26
• PRICE: 104.840 @ 05:27 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 104.765 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.645 Low Jul 12 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone and recent short-term gains appear to have been a correction. The recent break of support at 105.130, the Sep 7 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has maintained the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 104.720, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 105.170, the Sep 14 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 95.63 High Sep 27
• RES 3: 94.91 High Sep 28
• RES 2: 94.74 High Sep 28
• RES 1: 94.26 76.4% retracement of yesterday’s range
• PRICE: 94.90 @ Close Sep 27
• SUP 1: 92.71 76.4% retracement of the Aug 17 - Sep 20 bull run
• SUP 2: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support

Gilt futures remain bearish and yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this condition. The contract has breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support. This has opened 92.71, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 96.71, the Sep 20 high. Initial firm resistance is at yesterday’s 94.74 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Oversold But Remains In Bear-Mode

• RES 4: 112.52 High Sep 20
• RES 3: 111.81 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 110.69 High Sep 26
• RES 1: 109.54 High Sep 28
• PRICE: 108.28 @ Close Sep 28
• SUP 1: 108.08 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures Thursday reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. The contract is in oversold territory, however, this does not appear to be a concern for bears and a reversal signal is required to signal a base. The Sep 28 ‘22 low of 108.13 has been pierced - a major support. A break would open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection on the continuation chart. Resistance is at 109.54 yesterday's high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 2: 4250.00/4298.80 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 4210.00 Low Sep 8
• PRICE: 4184.00 @ 06:30 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 4128.00 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 4109.90 1.236 proj of the Aug 10 - 18 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: 4095.00 Low Mar 28 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a softer tone and the latest bounce is considered corrective. This week’s extension reinforces current conditions and key support at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low, has been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and opens 4109.90, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4359.00, the Sep 15 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Trend Signals Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4597.50 High Sep 1 and a near-term bull trigger
• RES 3: 4566.00 High Sep 15
• RES 2: 4472.85 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4399.00 High Sep 22
• PRICE: 4343.00 @ 07:11 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 4277.00 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 4259.00 Low May 31
• SUP 3: 4242.15 1.236 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4194.75 Low May 24

A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and the contract traded lower this week, extending the current downleg. The recent break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low, reinforced bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 4242.15, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is 4472.85, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $100.00 - Key psychological round number
• RES 3: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 1: $95.35 - High Sep 28
• PRICE: $93.07@ 07:59 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: $90.41 - Low Sep 26 and key support
• SUP 2: $87.18 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $77.54 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in Brent futures remains intact and this week’s recovery has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend - resistance at $94.57, the Sep 19 high, has been cleared. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards 96.22, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the psychological $100.00 handle. Key short-term support is at $90.41, the Sep 26 low.

WTI TECHS: (X3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $100.00 - Psychological barrier
• RES 3: $99.42 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: $95.03 - High Sep 28
• PRICE: $91.64 @ 07:08 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: $88.19 - Low Sep 26
• SUP 2: $83.92 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $73.40 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s recovery has confirmed a resumption of the trend - resistance at $92.43, Sep 19 high, has been cleared. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment. Sights are on $97.08 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at $88.19, the Sep 2 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bears Remain In the Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $1966.0 - High Aug 1
• RES 3: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: $1922.0 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1884.9/1903.9 - Low Aug 21 / High Sep 27
• PRICE: $1868.1 @ 07:16 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: $1857.8 - Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $1839.0 - 50.0 retracement of the Sep 28 ‘22 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 3: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: $1804.9- Low Feb 28 and a key resistance

Gold sold off sharply this week, reinforcing bearish conditions. The move lower has resulted in a break of support at $1901.10 and this has been followed by a move through $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. A resumption of the downtrend that started off the early May high has been confirmed. Attention turns to $1839.0, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at yesterday’s high of $1903.9.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present Despite Bounce

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.014/149 - High Aug 30 / High Jul 27
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22
• PRICE: $23.040 @ 08:01 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: $22.301 - Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver maintains a softer tone and the pullback from last week’s high signals the end of the recent corrective recovery between Sep 14 - 22. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards $22.301, the Sep 14 low, and a breach of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. This would open $22.111, the Jun 23 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $23.774, the Sep 22 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.