MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Remains in Bear Mode
MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Remains in Bear Mode Condition
- S&P E-Minis traded lower last week and the move down resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This reinforces the short-term bearish cycle and signals scope for an extension near-term. Note that the move down is considered corrective. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower last week, and a bearish threat remains present. The contract has breached 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 4734.54, the 200 day MA (cont).
- EURUSD remains in a bear-mode condition for now and price is trading just above this week’s low. The pair has pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.0818. It marks an important short-term pivot support and a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.0774. Recent gains in EURGBP continue to appear corrective in nature and a bearish theme remains intact. The move down earlier this month resulted in a print below key support at 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger. Trend conditions in USDCAD remains bullish. The recent climb resulted in a break of 1.3792, the Jun 11 high, and more recently, a print above key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. Conditions are overbought, however, a clear break of 1.3846 would strengthen the bull theme.
- The recent move down in Gold is considered corrective, however, the yellow metal has managed to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - at $2363.9. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4. A bear threat in WTI futures remains present and the contract has traded lower this week. The recent breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforces the bear theme. A continuation lower would open $72.23, the Jun 4 low and the next key support.
- A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract is trading higher this week. Monday's gains resulted in a print above 133.21, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens the 134.00 handle next. Gilt futures have traded higher this week. This marks an extension of last Friday’s strong bounce and opens 98.93, the Jul 18 high, and 99.23, the Jun 21 high. Clearance of both levels would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
- RES 2: 1.0897/0948 High Jul 23 / 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.0870 High Jul 25 / 29
- PRICE: 1.0824 @ 06:15 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 1.0799 Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: 1.0774 61.8% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 bull phase
- SUP 3: 1.0733 76.4% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 bull phase
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
EURUSD remains in a bear-mode condition for now and price is trading just above this week’s low. The pair has pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.0818. It marks an important short-term pivot support and a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.0774, a Fibonacci retracement. . A reversal higher would highlight the end of the current corrective cycle and open the key resistance at 1.0948, the Jul 17 high.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 1.3193 2.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 ‘23 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3110 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low
- RES 1: 1.2938/3044 High Jul 24 / 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2839 @ 06:29 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 1.2807 Low Jul 29
- SUP 2: 1.2789 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2741 Low Julh 4
- SUP 4: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
GBPUSD is trading closer to its recent lows and the bear cycle that started Jul 17, remains intact. Support at the 20-day EMA has been cleared and this signals scope for a move towards 1.2789, the 50-day EMA. The latest move down appears to be a correction - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 1.3044, the Jul 17 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.8525 High Jun 6
- RES 3: 0.8499 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8478 High Jul 5
- RES 1: 0.8459/61 50-day EMA / High Jul 29
- PRICE: 0.8429 @ 06:46 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 0.8393/83 Low Jul 25 / 17 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8333 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 0.8279 3.00 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
Recent gains in EURGBP continue to appear corrective in nature and a bearish theme remains intact. The move down earlier this month resulted in a print below key support at 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this price level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and open 0.8366, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has been breached, the next firm resistance is seen at 0.8459, the 50-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 3: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 2: 156.51/157.01 20- and 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 155.22 High Jul 24
- PRICE: 152.57 @ 06:08 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 151.64 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 151.60 200-dma
- SUP 3: 151.10 50% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 upleg
- SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5
The current trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and the pair is trading at this week’s lows. The recent move down signals scope for an extension towards 151.10, a Fibonacci retracement point. The 200-dma lies at 151.60. Clearance of both price points would reinforce bearish conditions. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 157.01, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a potential reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Trend Low
- RES 4: 172.92 High Jul 16
- RES 3: 171.88 High Jul 19
- RES 2: 169.85 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 168.01 High Jul 28
- PRICE: 165.48 @ 07:12 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 164.17 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 163.02 Low Apr 19
- SUP 3: 162.28 Low Apr 12
- SUP 4: 161.71 61.8% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Jul 11 bull cycle
The sharp sell-off in EURJPY last week and yesterday's low print, reinforces a bearish theme. The move down since Jul 11 resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from Dec 7 low last year, and a breach of the 50-day EMA. This signals scope for an extension towards 163.02 next, the Apr 19 low. On the upside, a key short-term resistance is seen at 169.85, the 50-day EMA. Initial resistance is 168.01, the Jul 26 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 0.6702 High Jul 22
- RES 3: 0.6645 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6620 Low Jun 28
- RES 1: 0.6583 High Jul 25
- PRICE: 0.6495 @ 07:30 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 0.6480 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.6466 76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 11 bull phase
- SUP 3: 0.6441 Low Apr 23
- SUP 4: 0.6407 Low Apr 22
A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD last week and today’s strong sell-off, reinforces a bearish theme. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. This paves the way for a move towards 0.6466, a Fibonacci retracement point. From a near-term perspective, the short-term trend is oversold. A recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 0.6645, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
- RES 3: 1.3921 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3865 High Jul 29
- PRICE: 1.3835 @ 08:00 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 1.3797 Low Jul 25
- SUP 2: 1.3749 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3707 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3367 Low Jul 17
Trend conditions in USDCAD remains bullish. The recent climb resulted in a break of 1.3792, the Jun 11 high, and more recently, a print above key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. Conditions are overbought, however, a clear break of 1.3846 would strengthen the bull theme and open 1.3899, the Nov 1 high ‘23 and a key resistance. Firm support lies at 1.3707, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Clears Key Resistance
- RES 4: 134.46 2.236 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
- RES 3: 134.15 High Mar 3 (cont)
- RES 2: 134.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 133.60 High Jul 30
- PRICE: 133.50 @ 05:44 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 132.72 Low Jul 29
- SUP 2: 132.26 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 131.95/62 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22 and a key support
- SUP 4: 131.39 Low Jul 15
A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract is trading higher this week. Monday's gains resulted in a print above 133.21, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens the 134.00 handle next. For bears, a reversal would instead refocus attention on key support at 131.62, the Jul 22 low. First support is 132.26, the 20-day EMA.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 118.100 High Apr 12 (cont)
- RES 3: 117.800 2.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 2: 117.640 2.236 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 1: 117.480 High Jul 30
- PRICE: 117.420 @ 06.09 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 117.020/116.702 Low Jul 29 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11
- SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support
Bobl futures have traded higher this week. This has resulted in a break of key resistance at the Jun 14 high of 117.160. A medium-term bull cycle remains in play and the clear breach of 117.160 reinforces current conditions. This opens 117.640, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a reversal would instead refocus attention on 116.320, the Jul 5 low and key support. Initial firm support is 116.702, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 106.225 3.00 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 106.215 High Jan 31(cont)
- RES 2: 106.142 2.764 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 106.091 2.618 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
- PRICE: 106.005 @ 06:14 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 105.920/779 Low Jul 29 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 105.630 Low Jul 22
- SUP 3: 105.495 Low Jul 11
- SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support
The current uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact. The contract has traded through resistance at 105.975, the Jun 14 high. The clear break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 24. Sights are on 106.091, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 105.779, the 20-day EMA, and 105.630, the Jul 22 low. A clear break of these two levels would be seen as a bearish development.
GILT TECHS: (U4) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 2: 99.23 High Jun 21 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 98.93/94 High Jul 26 / 30
- PRICE: 98.74 @ Close Jul 30
- SUP 1: 98.17/97.46 20-day EMA / Low Jul 26
- SUP 2: 96.96 Low Jul 3
- SUP 3: 96.57 Low Jul 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run
Gilt futures have traded higher this week. This marks an extension of last Friday’s strong bounce and opens 98.93, the Jul 18 high, and 99.23, the Jun 21 high. Clearance of both levels would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29. This would signal scope for a climb towards 99.62, a Fibonacci projection. For bears, a reversal and break of 97.46, the Jul 26 low, would instead reinstate a bearish threat.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Heading North
- RES 4: 120.20 2.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 3: 119.55 1.764 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
- RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 118.78 High Jul 30
- PRICE: 118.57 @ Close Jul 30
- SUP 1: 117.69/23 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8
- SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support
BTP futures have recovered from last Friday’s low. The medium-term trend remains positive following recent strong gains. A continuation higher would open the 119.00 handle next ahead of 119.55, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 117.69, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 117.23. A clear break of both averages would highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 5012.00 High Jul 16
- RES 2: 4947.81/4980.00 50-day EMA 5132.00 / High Jul 23
- RES 1: 4924.00 High Jul 29
- PRICE: 4893.00 @ 06:38 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: 4793.00 Low Jul 25
- SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 (cont)
- SUP 3: 4734.54 200-dma (cont)
- SUP 4: 4679.00 1.50 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower last week, and a bearish threat remains present. The contract has breached 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 4734.54, the 200 day MA (cont). Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a downtrend. The latest bounce appears to be a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 4980.00, Jul 23 high.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Short-Term Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 5741.34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 5629.75 High Jul 23
- RES 1: 5557.57 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5522.25 @ 14:39 BST Jul 30
- SUP 1: 5432.50 Low Jul 25
- SUP 2: 5396.09 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 5370.62 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
S&P E-Minis traded lower last week and the move down resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This reinforces the short-term bearish cycle and signals scope for an extension near-term. Note that the move down is considered corrective. Potential is seen for a move towards 5396.09, the lower band of a MA envelope, ahead of 5370.62 a Fibonacci retracement. Gains are considered corrective, key S/T resistance is 5629.75, Jul 23 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (V4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $89.34 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $84.66/87.05 - High Jul 18 / 5
- RES 1: $ 82.44 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $79.38 @ 07:08 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: $77.95 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $76.42 - Low Jun 4 and a key support
- SUP 3: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023
A bear cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the contract has traded lower this week. The recent breach of the 20- and 50 EMAs continues to suggest scope for an extension lower near-term. This has opened $76.42, the Jun 4 low and the next key support. The medium-term trend remains bullish. A reversal higher would refocus attention on $87.05, the Jul 5 high and a key resistance.
WTI TECHS: (U4) Bear Cycle
- RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $87.43 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 13 ‘23 - Apr 12 - Jun 4 swing
- RES 2: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $78.58/83.58 - 20-day EMA / High Jul 5
- PRICE: $76.14 @ 07:16 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: $74.59 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $72.23 - Low Jun 4 and a key support
- SUP 3: $70.73 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023
A bear threat in WTI futures remains present and the contract has traded lower this week. The recent breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforces the bear theme. A continuation lower would open $72.23, the Jun 4 low and the next key support. For bulls, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the key resistance points at $83.58, the Jul 5 high, and $84.36, the Apr 12 high.
GOLD TECHS: Remains ABove Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $2432.0/2483.8 - High Jul 24 / 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2420.5 @ 07:23 BST Jul 31
- SUP 1: $2353.2 - Low Jul 25
- SUP 2: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
- SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
- SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1
The recent move down in Gold is considered corrective, however, the yellow metal has managed to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - at $2363.9. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, the May 3 low and a key support. For bulls, this week’s gains are constructive. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Outlook Despite This Week’s Gains
- RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $29.368/$31.754 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 11
- PRICE: $27.940 @ 08:01 BST Jul 30
- SUP 1: $27.311 - Low Jul 29
- SUP 2: $27.011 - Low May 8
- SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
A bearish cycle in Silver remains in play despite this week’s gains. The metal slipped through supports last week, extending the negative response to the recent break of the 50-day EMA at $29.368. Note too that support at $28.573, the Jun 26 low, has been cleared. This paves the way for an extension towards $26.018, the May 2 low and a key support. A reversal would refocus attention on $31.754 initially, the Jul 11 high.