MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Resumes Bear Leg

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Resumes Bear Leg

• In the equity space, Last week's pullback in S&P E-minis appears to be a short-term correction. Another all-time high print on Nov 5 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the contract has once again registered a fresh trend high, today at 4384.00, reinforcing bullish conditions.
• In FX, EURUSD traded lower Monday to resume the current bear leg. The move lower yesterday puts the pair at the lowest level since mid-2020 and the USD Index at a similar (higher) mark. GBPUSD is consolidating. The short-term outlook remains bearish following recent weakness. The pair has breached 1.3412, Sep 29 low and this confirms a resumption of the current bear trend, paving the way for an extension lower short-term.
• On the commodity front, Gold maintains a firmer tone and is trading near recent highs. The focus is on $1877.7 next, Jun 14 high ahead of the $1900.00 handle. WTI futures remain below recent highs but still above support. The key resistance and the bull trigger is at $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures have established a short-term range and are consolidating. The current bull cycle remains intact though. The recent breach of 169.83, Oct 27 high and the clearance of the 50-day EMA signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Channel Base

• RES 4: 1.1821 High Sep 16
• RES 3: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 2: 1.1650/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 1: 1.1514/1608 Low Nov 5 / High Nov 9
• PRICE: 1.1379 @ 06:01 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 1.1356 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 1.1305 Bear channel base drawn from the Jun 1 high
• SUP 3: 1.1290 61.8% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 rally
• SUP 4: 1.1222 1.382 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing

EURUSD traded lower Monday to resume the current bear leg. The move lower yesterday puts the pair at the lowest level since mid-2020 and the USD Index at a similar (higher) mark. The 1.1375 objective has been achieved (1.382 projection of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing) and attention turns to the 1.1305 bear channel base drawn off the Jun 1st high. 1.1514, Nov 5 is seen as the initial firm resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 1.3648 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3449/3607 High Nov 15 / High Nov 9 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3425 @ 06:10 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 1.3353 Low Nov 12
• SUP 2: 1.3334 1.00 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.3304 Low Dec 22, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing

GBPUSD is consolidating. The short-term outlook remains bearish following recent weakness. The pair has breached 1.3412, Sep 29 low and this confirms a resumption of the current bear trend, paving the way for an extension lower short-term. Moving average studies are in a bear mode that reinforces current conditions. The focus is on 1.3334 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 1.3607, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Intraday Support Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8624 High Oct 1
• RES 2: 0.8595/98 High Nov 5 / 76.4% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8538/74 High Nov 15 / High Nov 11
• PRICE: 0.8478 @ 06:22 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 0.8463 Low Nov 3 and a key intraday support
• SUP 2: 0.8441 Low Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 0.8403 Low Oct 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP has failed to hold onto recent highs and the cross has traded back below the 50-day EMA support, threatening the recent bullish short-term outlook. The move lower has exposed support at 0.8463, Nov 3 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper sell-off and open the key support at 0.8403, the Oct 26 low. The cross needs to trade above yesterday's high to ease this fresh bearish threat. Key resistance is at 0.8595, Nov 5 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 3: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 114.70/73 High Oct 20 / High Nov 6, 2017
• RES 1: 114.44 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 114.20 @ 06:26 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 112.73/61 Low Nov 9 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.51 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11

USDJPY is holding onto recent gains. The rebound on Nov 11 highlighted a bullish engulfing candle pattern, signalling the potential end of the recent corrective pullback. If correct, it signals scope for a stronger climb with attention on key resistance at 114.70, Oct 20 high. A break of 114.70 would confirm a resumption of the current primary uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 112.73, Nov 9 low. A break would be bearish.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Heavy

• RES 4: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 3: 132.92/133.48 High Oct 29 / High Oct 20
• RES 2: 132.56 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 130.86/131.15 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.91 @ 06:43 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 129.68 Low Nov 15 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.24 76.4% retracement of the Sep 22 - Oct 20 rally
• SUP 3: 128.94 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 128.33 Low Oct 6

EURJPY remains bearish. The cross traded lower yesterday, extending the move below its 50- and 20-day EMAs - the recent breach of these averages suggests scope for a deeper pullback. Monday saw 130.05 give way, 61.8% of the Sep 22 - Oct 20 rally, opening 129.24, the 76.4% retracement. Resistance is at 130.86, the 50-day EMA and 131.15, the 20-day EMA. A break of this resistance is required to suggest a reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Attention Is On The Bull Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 3: 0.7544/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 1: 0.7371 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 0.7338 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 0.7277 Low Nov 12
• SUP 2: 0.7261 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 28 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7248 Bull channel base drawn from the Aug 20 low
• SUP 4: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29

The AUDUSD short-term outlook remains bearish despite the recent bounce. Recent weakness has opened 0.7261, a Fibonacci retracement. A firm support lies just below, at 0.7248, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The recent move lower is considered corrective. A channel breakout though would alter the picture. Resistance to watch is 0.7432, Nov 9 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 3: 1.2739 High Oct 1
• RES 2: 1.2664 61.8.0% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2605 High Nov 12
• PRICE: 1.2518 @ 06:54 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 1.2493/2387 Intraday low / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD conditions remain bullish. The pair traded higher last week, printing a weekly high of 1.2605 and probed the Oct 8 high of 1.2562 and the 50% retracement of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off at 1.2592. The move higher has opened 1.2664 next, the 61.8% retracement. Further out, there is scope for a climb towards the October high of 1.2739. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.2387, Nov 10 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Trading In A Range

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 2: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 171.44 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 170.59 @ 04:58 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020 (cont)

Bund futures have established a short-term range and are consolidating. The current bull cycle remains intact though. The recent breach of 169.83, Oct 27 high and the clearance of the 50-day EMA signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce. 171.14, 50.0% of the Aug - Nov sell-off has been breached and attention is on 171.95, the 76.4% level. On the downside, initial support to watch is unchanged at 170.06.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Short-Term Outlook Still Bullish

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.380 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 135.320 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 134.850 @ 05:08 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 134.700/320 Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)
• SUP 4: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

The short-term outlook in Bobl futures remains bullish and attention is on resistance at 135.20, Sep 17 low and the Oct 4 plus Nov 5 high. This resistance has been probed, a clear break would open 135.540, Sep 21 high and confirm an extension of the rally that started Oct 29. Initial firm support lies at 134.320, Nov 3 low. A break would sour the current positive tone and instead signal a potential resumption of the broader downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Bullish Conditions Dominate

• RES 4: 112.475 High Nov 5 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.450 High Dec 11 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.415 High Aug 5 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 112.410 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 112.270 @ 05:22 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 112.215 50-day EMA and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

Schatz futures has established a bullish short-term cycle. Friday's resumption of gains and yesterday's fresh high reinforces this. Resistance at 112.290, Sep 20 high has been breached and the break paves the way for strength towards 112.415 next, Aug 5 high (cont). A break of 112.415 would mark a 100.0% retracement of the Aug -Sep sell-off and open 112.450, Dec 11 2020 high (cont). 112.215, the 50-day EMA marks support.

GILT TECHS: (Z1 Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10 and 14
• RES 3: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 126.82/127.29 High Nov 15 / High Nov 9
• PRICE: 126.03 @ Close Nov 15
• SUP 1: 125.77 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. A double bottom reversal confirmed on Oct 27 and a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows highlights the current positive theme. With a number of important short-term resistance levels cleared, attention is on 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Initial key support has been defined at 124.25, Nov 1 low. First support is at 125.77, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 153.08 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 151.34 @ Close Nov 15
• SUP 1: 150.72 Nov 12 low
• SUP 2: 149.89 Nov 3 low
• SUP 3: 148.14 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures outlook remains bullish despite the most recent pullback. Recent gains have confirmed a short-term bull cycle and last week's breach of 152.54, Oct 14 high strengthens this short-term condition. The break opens 153.59 next, Sep 24 high. Initial firm support is seen at 149.89, Nov 3 low where a break would undermine the positive theme. Key support has been defined at 147.12, Nov 1 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Another Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 4498.00 High Dec 27, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4384.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4377.00 @ 05:48 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 4278.40/4223.50 20-day EMA High Sep 6
• SUP 2: 4200.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4119.00 Low Oct 18
• SUP 4: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the contract has once again registered a fresh trend high, today at 4384.00, reinforcing bullish conditions. The recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger highlighted an important bullish technical break and moving average signals also point north. Attention is on the 4400.00 handle. The 50-day EMA, at 4200.30, remains a key support. A break would signal a potential top.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4746.68 1.618 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 1.50 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4676.50 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: 4606.79 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4543.75 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4520.49/ 4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

Last week's pullback in S&P E-minis appears to be a short-term correction. Another all-time high print on Nov 5 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, reinforcing current conditions and market sentiment. The 50-day EMA at 4514.02 continues to represent the key support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $82.85 @ 06:58 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: $80.20 - Low Nov 4 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $80.07 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $78.42 - Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: $75.80 - Low Sep 30

Brent futures remain below recent highs. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $85.77, Oct 25 high. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.73, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support to watch is unchanged at $80.20 Nov 4 low where a break would instead reverse the trend.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Key Resistance And Support Remain Intact

• RES 4: $88.96 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $84.97/85.41 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $81.68 @ 07:10 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: $78.27/25 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 4 and key support
• SUP 2: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $72.82 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $71.29 - Low Sep 23

WTI futures remain below recent highs but still above support. The key resistance and the bull trigger is at $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break of this hurdle is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.45, a Fibonacci projection. For bears. key short-term support has been defined at $78.25 Nov 4 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Needle Points North

• RES 4: $1916.6 - High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 2: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 1: $1870.4/1877.7 - High Nov 15 / High Jun 14
• PRICE: $1864.0 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: $1822.4/1815.8 - Low Nov 10 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1797.3/1759.0 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger

The yellow metal rallied sharply higher last week and the move higher resulted in a clear break of resistance at $1834.0, Sep 3 high. The breach of this hurdle reinforces current bullish conditions and paves the way for further strength. Note too that gold has also breached $1863.3, 76.4% of the Jun - Aug sell-off. The focus is on $1877.7 next, Jun 14 high. Support is seen at $1822.4, the Nov 10 low.

SILVER TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: $26.778 - High Jul 6
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.510 - High Aug 5
• PRICE: $25.050 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 16
• SUP 1: $23.925/23.020 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver is holding onto the bulk of its gains from last week. Recent price action had defined key short-term directional triggers at; $23.020, Nov 3 low and $24.828, Oct 22 high. The $24.828 resistance has been cleared and the break confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle. This opens $26.002 next, Aug 4 high. For bears, weakness through $23.020 is required to instead expose $22.213, Oct 6 low.