MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EuroStoxx Breaks Resistance to Confirm Resumption of Uptrend​

Price Signal Summary – EuroStoxx Breaks Resistance to Confirm Resumption of Uptrend

• S&P E-Minis traded higher yesterday as the contract extends the bull cycle from Apr 19. This highlights scope for a continuation higher and attention is on the key resistance and bull trigger at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding onto this week’s gains. The contract has breached key resistance at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• GBPUSD traded well into the Tuesday close and the pair is holding on to its latest highs. Attention is on resistance at 1.2634, the May 3 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would reinstate the recent upleg and open 1.2667, a Fibonacci retracement. USDJPY is trading closer to this week’s highs and the bull cycle that started May 3, remains in play. For now, gains are considered corrective and a bear threat is present following the recent intervention-triggered retracement. A resumption of weakness would expose key support at 152.13. A bullish condition in AUDUSD remains intact. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a number of short-term resistance points. This highlights potential for a test of 0.6668, the Mar 8 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme.
• A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA, strengthening a short-term bearish set-up that highlights potential for a deeper correction. The medium-term trend structure in Gold remains bullish and this is reinforced by moving average studies that are in a bull-mode position. Near-term, a push higher would refocus attention on 2431.50, the Apr 12 high and bull trigger.
• Bund futures traded lower yesterday. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a clear downward trend cycle. Gilt futures are in consolidation mode and the contract is trading just below its recent high. The latest pause appears to be a bull flag formation. A break of resistance at 98.29, the May 10 high, would confirm the flag and highlight a resumption of the recovery that started Apr 25.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching The Top Of A Bear Channel

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0832 Bear channel top drawn from the Dec 28 high
• RES 1: 1.0819 High May 14
• PRICE: 1.0824 @ 05:24 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 1.0769/24 50-day EMA / Low May 3
• SUP 2: 1.0650/0601 Low May 1 / Low Apr 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 2023
• SUP 4: 1.0494 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high

EURUSD traded higher yesterday and is holding on to its recent gains. A bullish short-term condition remains intact and price is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a continuation near-term and attention is on the bear channel top at 1.0832. The channel is drawn from the Dec 28 high and represents the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch is 1.0724, May 9 low. A break would be bearish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Extends Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.2754 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.2667 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2634 High May 03 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2592 @ 05:41 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 1.2510/2446 Low May 14 / 9 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 1.2423/2300 Low Apr 24 / 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

GBPUSD traded well into the Tuesday close and the pair is holding on to its latest highs. Attention is on resistance at 1.2634, the May 3 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would reinstate the recent upleg and open 1.2667, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is 1.2446, the May 9 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards the bear trigger at 1.2300, the Apr 22 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8671 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8621/21 High May 9
• PRICE: 0.8593 @ 05:58 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 0.8572/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

EURGBP is trading below its latest high but is holding on to the bulk of its gains since Apr 30. A bullish short-term bullish condition remains in place and moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a rising trend. A continuation higher would open 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key short-term resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would be viewed as an important technical break. Initial support to watch is 0.8572, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Recent Gains Considered Corrective For Now

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 157.99 High May 1
• RES 2: 157.00 61.8% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
• RES 1: 156.74 High May 14
• PRICE: 156.29 @ 06:30 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 154.97/153.21 20- and 50-day EMAs
• SUP 2: 151.86 Low May 3
• SUP 3: 151.65 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

USDJPY is trading closer to this week’s highs and the bull cycle that started May 3, remains in play. For now, gains are considered corrective and a bear threat is present following the recent intervention-triggered retracement. A resumption of weakness would expose key support at 152.13, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of this line would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial resistance to watch is 157.00, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 170.10 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 169.78 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 retracement
• RES 1: 169.40 High May 14
• PRICE: 169.21 @ 06:53 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 166.61 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 165.53 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 3: 164.97 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3

EURJPY traded higher again yesterday and the bull cycle from May 3 is in play. The M/T trend structure remains bullish and a break of 171.56, Apr 29 high, would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. Initial resistance is 169.78, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 166.61, the 20-day EMA. Key trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, lies at 165.53. A clear break of this line would highlight a stronger reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6705 High Jan 15
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6651 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6642 @ 08:00 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 0.6550 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6465/6363 Low May 1 / Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23

A bullish condition in AUDUSD remains intact. Recent gains have resulted in the break of a number of short-term resistance points. This highlights potential for a test of 0.6668, the Mar 8 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6550, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a clear breach of this average would be viewed as a bearish short-term development.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3682/3785 20-day EMA / High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3635 @ 08:07 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 1.3639 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3610 Low May 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

A bullish trend condition in USDCAD remains intact, despite the latest pullback. Key support levels to watch are; 1.3639, 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, May 3 low. A clear break of this zone would threaten the bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 132.55 High Apr 15
• RES 3: 132.24 High Apr 19
• RES 2: 131.86 High May 7
• RES 1: 131.13/69 High May 14 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.64 @ 04:59 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 130.24/129.53 Low May 14 / Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 129.26 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 129.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 128.88 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

Bund futures traded lower yesterday. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a clear downward trend cycle. A resumption of weakness would open 129.26, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at 131.69, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be bullish.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 2: 117.620 High Apr 19
• RES 3: 117.425 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 116.978/117.300 20-day EMA / High May 7
• PRICE: 116.680 @ 05:18 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 116.510/230 Low May 14 / Low Apr 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 116.135 1.50 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.964 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.752 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

Bobl futures traded lower yesterday. A downtrend remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Key support at 117.200, the Feb 29 low, has recently been cleared, confirming a continuation of the primary downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 116.135, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 117.425, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would be viewed as a bullish signal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 105.790 High Mar 25 and key resistance
• RES 3: 105.680 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 105.513 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.304/395 20-day EMA / High May 3
• PRICE: 105.195 @ 05:29 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 105.150/045 Low May 14 / Low Apr 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 104.917 1.764 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.800 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing

The trend direction in Schatz futures is unchanged and remains down. Recent gains appear to have been a correction. The break in April of 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Sights are on the 105.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is 105.304, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced but remains intact for now.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bull Flag Formation

• RES 4: 99.19 76.4% of the Mar 12 - Apr 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 99.10 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 98.46 61.8% of the Mar 12 - Apr 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 98.29 High May 10
• PRICE: 97.61 @ Close May 14
• SUP 1: 97.23 Low May 14
• SUP 2: 96.43/95.36 Low May 3 / Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures are in consolidation mode and the contract is trading just below its recent high. The latest pause appears to be a bull flag formation. A break of resistance at 98.29, the May 10 high, would confirm the flag and highlight a resumption of the recovery that started Apr 25, and open 98.46, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 95.36, the Apr 24 low and bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 120.28 High Mar 14
• RES 3: 119.55 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 118.61/119.10 High May 6 / High Apr 10
• RES 1: 118.22 High May 10
• PRICE: 117.28 @ Close May 14
• SUP 1: 116.93/115.76 Low Apr 30 / Low Apr 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)
• SUP 3: 114.74 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.09 1.382 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 22 - Mar 14 price swing

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present and the latest recovery appears to have been a correction. A resumption of gains would expose key short-term resistance at 119.10, the Apr 10 high. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bullish development and open 120.28, the Mar 14 high. For bears, a continuation lower would refocus attention on the key support at 115.76, the Apr 25 low. Clearance of this level resumes the bear leg.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
• RES 2: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 5096.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 5090.00 @ 06:05 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 4982.60/49717.00 20- and 50- day EMA values
• SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 4700.00 Round number support

Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding onto this week’s gains. The contract has breached key resistance at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 5127.70 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support remains 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. The initial support zone to watch is 4982.60/49717.00, the area between the 20- and 50- day EMAs.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Continues To Climb

• RES 4: 5372.73 1.76 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5333.50 High Apr 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5308.50 High Apr 4 high
• RES 1: 5296.45 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 5272.50 @ 07:30 BST May 15
• SUP 1: 5153.63 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5036.25/4963.50 Low May 2 / Low Apr 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4907.57 38.2% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4863.75 Low Jan 19

S&P E-Minis traded higher yesterday as the contract extends the bull cycle from Apr 19. This highlights scope for a continuation higher and attention is on the key resistance and bull trigger at 5333.50, the Apr 1 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Initial resistance is 5308.50, the Apr 4 high. Initial firm support lies at 5153.63, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $94.00 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $92.09 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $91.18 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $84.66/88.64 - 20-day EMA / High Apr 26
• PRICE: $82.92 @ 07:01 BST May 15
• SUP 1: $81.71 - Low May 8
• SUP 2: $80.24 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $75.91 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures are in consolidation mode. The contract remains vulnerable and is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has recently cleared the 50-day EMA and the clear breach of this average signals scope for a deeper correction towards $80.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $91.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance is $88.64, Apr 26 high.

WTI TECHS: (M4) Short-Term Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $84.46/86.97 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $80.22 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $78.62 @ 07:14 BST May 15
• SUP 1: $76.89 - Low May 8
• SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $73.30 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg
• SUP 4: $71.47 - Low Feb 5

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA, strengthening a short-term bearish set-up that highlights potential for a deeper correction. Scope is seen for a move to $76.07, the Mar 11 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. Initial firm resistance is at $84.46, the Apr 26 high.

GOLD TECHS: MA Studies Remain In A Bull-Mode Position

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2378.5/2431.5 - High May 10 / High Apr 12 and bull trigger
• PRICE: $2358.2 @ 07:19 BST May 15
• SUP 1: $2277.4 - Low May 3
• SUP 2: $2269.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

The medium-term trend structure in Gold remains bullish and this is reinforced by moving average studies that are in a bull-mode position. Near-term, a push higher would refocus attention on 2431.50, the Apr 12 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, the 50-day EMA, at $2269.1, represents a key support. A clear break of it would be bearish.

SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $29.797 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $28.675 @ 08:12 BST May 15
• SUP 1: $26.524/018 - 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 2: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Silver has recovered well from recent lows and is holding on to its gains. Initial resistance has given way at $27.732, the Apr 26 high. The break of this level undermines a recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery. The key resistance and bull trigger is at $29.797, the Apr 12 high. Support at the 50-day EMA, at $26.524, remains intact. A clear breach of this average would instead highlight a stronger reversal set-up.