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Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Directional Triggers Defined

In the equity space, S&P E-minis rolled off the week's highs of 4230 on Tuesday and has flatlined since. This keeps key resistance at 4238.25 May 10 high untouched for now, with key trend support unchanged at 4029.25, May 13 low. The 20-day EMA represents initial support at 4166.44. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. EUROSTOXX 50 futures outpaced their US counterparts Tuesday, holding the majority of the session's gains into the Wednesday open. Tuesday's show above the 4099.00,1.00 projection of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing confirms the resumption of the uptrend and opens 4140.00, Jan 18 high, 2008 (cont)

In the FX space, EURUSD is slightly offered this morning. The outlook remains bullish and the key directional parameters that have been defined are; 1.2133 support, May 28 low and 1.2266 resistance, May 25 high. The latter is the bull trigger. A break of the former would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. GBPUSD traded above resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high on Tuesday but has since pulled back and is slightly softer today. A clear break higher would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Support to watch lies at 1.4092, May 27 low. USDJPY is firmer this morning. Attention is on 110.20, May 28 high where a break would resume the recent recovery. Key support is at 108.56, May 25 low.

On the commodity front, Gold remains bullish despite this week's pullback. The focus is on the Jan 8 high of $1917.6. The trend remains overbought and we continue to monitor this technical warning sign. $1872.8, May 25 low is first support. Trend conditions in Oil remain bullish. Brent (Q1) key resistance at $69.90, May 18 high has been cleared. This opens $71.38, Mar 8 high (cont) next. WTI (N1) has traded through the May highs opening the $70.00 psychological level.

Within FI, Bunds (M1) are unchanged and remain below the 50-day EMA at 170.39. While it holds, the outlook is bearish. A clear break higher is required to highlight scope for further gains. Support is at 169.02. May 24 low. Gilts (U1) remains below resistance at 127.74/82, highs between Apr 20 and May 26. A bearish risk remains present.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Directional Parameters Defined

  • RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
  • RES 3: 1.2349/53 High Jan 6 / High Apr 20, 2018
  • RES 2: 1.2285 High Jan 8
  • RES 1: 1.2266 High May 25 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 1.2202 @ 05:54 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 1.2133/26 Low May 28 / Low May 17
  • SUP 2: 1.2052 Low May 13 and key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 1.2095 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 1.1986 Low May 5

The EURUSD outlook remains bullish. Recent price action has defined two key short-term directional parameters. These are; 1.2133 support, May 28 low and 1.2266 resistance, May 25 high. The latter is the bull trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2285, Jan 8 high and the 2021 high of 1.2349, Jan 6 high. A break of 1.2133 would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below Tuesday's High

  • RES 4: 1.4453 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 1.4377 High Apr 17, 2018 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
  • RES 1: 1.4248 High Jun 1
  • PRICE: 1.4161 @ 06:02 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 1.4092 Low May 27 and key short-term support
  • SUP 2: 1.4006/4002 Low May 13 / 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.3972 Low May 10
  • SUP 4: 1.3858 Low May 6

GBPUSD remains below Tuesday' high of 1.4248. The probe this week of former resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high reinforces the broader bullish theme however a clear break is still required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A clear breach of this hurdle would open 1.4315 next, April 18, 2018 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 1.4092, May 27 low where a break would instead suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

EURGBP TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

  • RES 4: 0.8790 2.0% 10-dma envelope and high Feb 12
  • RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
  • RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
  • RES 1: 0.8672 High May 25
  • PRICE: 0.8618 @ 06:09 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 0.8575/61 Low May 28 / Low May 12
  • SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
  • SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 0.8445 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP is trading within its recently defined range. The outlook remains bearish following the move lower between May 25 - 28. Initial resistance has been defined at 0.8672, May 25 high. Attention is on support at 0.8561, May 12 low where a break would strengthen a bearish case and open 0.8531, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of key support and bear trigger at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. On the upside, a break of 0.8672 resistance would alter the picture.

USDJPY TECHS: Needle Still Points North

  • RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
  • RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
  • RES 1: 110.20 High May 28
  • PRICE: 109.73 @ 06:29 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 109.04 High May 27
  • SUP 2: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
  • SUP 3: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

The USDJPY outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. The move lower from last week's high is still considered corrective. The rally from the May 25 low confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Apr 23. The pair probed 110.15, a Fibonacci retracement. This opens the year high print of 110.97 from Mar 31 where a break would resume the uptrend. Key S/T support is at 108.56, May 25 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Theme Still Dominates

  • RES 4: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
  • RES 3: 134.61 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
  • RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
  • RES 1: 134.13 High Jun 1
  • PRICE: 133.88 @ 06:34 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 132.92 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 132.52 Low May 24
  • SUP 3: 131.69 Low May 12
  • SUP 4: 131.16 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

The EURJPY outlook remains bullish and the cross touched a high of 134.13 Tuesday. The extension reinforces bullish conditions signalling scope for further gains within the rising channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The top of the channel intersects at 134.67. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, reinforcing current conditions. Initial firm support lies at 132.52, May 24 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Stuck In A Range

  • RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 0.7900 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
  • RES 1: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
  • PRICE: 0.7734 @ 06:38 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 0.7677 Low May 28
  • SUP 2: 0.7675 Low May 4 and key support
  • SUP 3: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
  • SUP 4: 0.7586 Low Apr 13

AUDUSD continues to trade sideways and above the May low of 0.7675 from May 4. A bearish theme dominates and attention is on the 0.7675 level, seen as a firm short-term support. A break would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7586, the Apr 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 0.7813, May 18 high would be a bullish development and open 0.7891 instead, high May 10.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading At The Lows

  • RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
  • RES 3: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
  • RES 2: 1.2288 High May 13
  • RES 1: 1.2124/2203 20-day EMA / High May 6
  • PRICE: 1.2049 @ 06:43 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 1.2007 Low May 18
  • SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
  • SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
  • SUP 4: 1.1836 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD printed a new trend low of 1.2007 Tuesday, extending the downtrend. The pair continues to erode major support at 1.2062, Sep 2017 low. This level represents an important pivot point marking either the base of a broad range or the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern. Attention is on the psychological 1.2000 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2203, May 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Still Watching The 50-Day EMA

  • RES 4: 171.27 High Apr 22
  • RES 3: 170.98 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 2: 170.48 50.0% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
  • RES 1: 170.38/40 50-day EMA / High May 26
  • PRICE: 170.15 @ 05:02 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 169.48/02 Low Mar 31 / Low May 24
  • SUP 2: 168.29 Low May 19 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 168.09 0.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
  • SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Bund futures are trading below last week's highs. Recent gains stalled just ahead of a key resistance marked by the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 170.38 today with the recent high at 170.40 on May 26. A reversal lower would signal scope for a move towards 169.02, May 24 low and open the key support and bear trigger at 168.29, May 19 low. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would please bulls.

BOBL TECHS: M(1) Holding Onto Gains

  • RES 4: 135.050 High Apr 22
  • RES 3: 135.040 High May 6 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 2: 135.008 61.8% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 downleg
  • RES 1: 134.850 High May 26, 27 and intraday high
  • PRICE: 134.830 @ 05:19 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 134.590/410 Low May 28 / Low May 24
  • SUP 2: 134.180/140 Low May 19 / Low Feb 26 and key support
  • SUP 3: 134.000 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Bobl futures are holding onto this week's gains. The contract sold off on May 27 and last week's gains stalled just above key resistance highlighted by the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 134.809. A reversal lower would signal scope for a move towards 134.410, May 24 low with the key support zone at 134.180/140, May 19 and Feb 26 lows respectively. For bulls, a strong break of last week's 134.850 high would resume gains.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Consolidating

  • RES 4: 112.150 High Apr 8
  • RES 3: 112.110/120 High May 4, 5, and 6 / High Apr 22
  • RES 2: 112.080 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 112.060 High May 26 and 27
  • PRICE: 112.050 @ 05:25 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 112.020 Low May 24
  • SUP 2: 112.000 Low May 19
  • SUP 3: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
  • SUP 4: 111.940 Low Feb 26 ad key support

Schatz futures continue to consolidate. The outlook is bearish following the sell-off from May 5 that marked a resumption of the bear cycle since Mar 25. Weakness earlier in May resulted in a breach of 112.060, a previous support during March and April. This strengthens a bearish case and opens 111.940, Feb 26 low. For bulls, a breach of 112.110 is required to signal a reversal. Resistance around the 50-day EMA is at 112.080.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Remains Below Resistance

  • RES 4: 128.10 2.500 projection of the May 13 - 19 price swing
  • RES 3: 128.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 127.89 2.236 proj of the May 13 - 19 price swing
  • RES 1: 127.74/82 High May 7, 26 / High Apr 20 and a key resistance
  • PRICE: 127.18 @ Close Jun 2
  • SUP 1: 126.82 Low May 28
  • SUP 2: 126.55 Low May 21
  • SUP 3: 126.12 Low May 19
  • SUP 4: 125.94 Low May 13 and key support

Gilt futures broader outlook remains bearish. Recent gains stalled on May 27, resulting in a sharp pullback. This signals the end of the recent corrective recovery. If correct, it suggests scope for short-term weakness that would expose last month's low of 125.94 on May 13. This level also represents the bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is marked by the highs of early May and late April. A break would be bullish.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

  • RES 4: 148.95 76.4% retracement of the Mar 29 - May 19 sell-off
  • RES 3: 148.65 High Apr 22
  • RES 2: 148.10 61.8% retracement of the Mar 29 - May 19 sell-off
  • RES 1: 147.89 High Jun2
  • PRICE: 147.77 @ Close Jun 2
  • SUP 1: 146.83 Low May 28
  • SUP 2: 145.64 Low May 21
  • SUP 3: 144.48 Low May 17 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 144.16 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing

BTP futures remain in a clear downtrend following the recent extension lower to 144.48 on Mar 19. However, since May 19, prices have recovered and a corrective cycle remains in play, allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The recent break of the 20- and the 50-day EMA signals scope for further short-term gains and this has opened 148.10, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support is at 146.83.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Bullish Trend Structure Intact

  • RES 4: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
  • RES 3: 4168.83 Bull channel top drawn off the Feb 1 low
  • RES 2: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
  • RES 1: 4100.00 High Jun 1
  • PRICE: 4090.00 @ 05:44 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 4013.36 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 3935.01/3882.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
  • SUP 3: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 3727.00 Low Mar 25

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish and the contract is holding onto gains. A positive outlook follows last week's breach of resistance at 4036.00, May 10 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, maintaining the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This reinforces current trend conditions. On the downside, firm trend support is unchanged at 3882.00, May 19 low. The focus is on 4140.00, Jan 18 high, 2008 (cont).

E-MINI S&P (M1): Consolidating Ahead Of The Bull Trigger

  • RES 4: 4305.01 3.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
  • RES 2: 4238.25 High May 10 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 4230.00 High Jun 1
  • PRICE: 4208.00 @ 06:48 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 4142.50 Low May 24
  • SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19
  • SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 and key short-term support
  • SUP 4: 4021.00 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis are consolidating. The outlook remains bullish though. The contract breached former resistance at 4185.00 last week, May 21 high. Recent gains reinforce the bullish significance of the recovery in May from support defined by the 50-day EMA - the average was tested twice in May. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4238.25, May 10 high. Initial firm support is at 4055.50, May 19 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Defying Gravity

  • RES 4: $74.20 - High Apr 26, 2019 (cont)
  • RES 3: $73.40 - High May 20 2019 (cont)
  • RES 2: $72.21 - 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 low
  • RES 1: $71.99 - Intraday high
  • PRICE: $71.86 @ 06:52 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: $69.90 High May 18 and the recent break out level
  • SUP 2: $68.35 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $66.39/64.50 - Low May 24 / Low May 21 and key support
  • SUP 4: $63.51 - Low Apr 22

Brent crude futures continue to head north and the contract has extended the uptrend once again today. The focus turns to $72.21, a Fibonacci extension and $73.40, the May 20, 2019 high (cont). Price recently breached the 50-day EMA however levels around the average continue to provide strong trend support. Weakness through $64.50 low is required to signal a key short-term top. Initial support is at $69.90.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Bull Trend Extension

  • RES 4: $72.70 High Oct 15, 2018 (cont)
  • RES 3: $70.22 - 2.618 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
  • RES 2: $70.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 1: $69.66 - 2.5 proj of Mar 23-30-Apr 5 price swing
  • PRICE: $69.26 @ 07:03 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: $67.02 - High May 18
  • SUP 2: $65.53 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $63.63/61.56 - Low May 24 / Low May 21
  • SUP 4: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support

WTI crude futures continue to defy gravity as the uptrend extends once again. The focus is on $69.66, a Fibonacci projection and the psychological $70.00 handle. A break of $70.00 would reinforce the current trend conditions. On the downside, key support has been defined at $61.56, May 21 low. A break is required to suggest a key short-term top. Initial support is at $67.02.

GOLD TECHS: Needle Still Points North

  • RES 4: $1965.6 - High Nov 9, 2020
  • RES 3: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 and key resistance
  • RES 2: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
  • RES 1: $1917.6 - High Jan 8
  • PRICE: $1899.2 @ 07:19 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: $1872.8/52.3 - Low May 25 / Low May 19
  • SUP 2: $1826.4 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $1808.9 - Low May 13
  • SUP 4: $1782.1 - Low May 6

Gold bulls remain in charge. Last week's gains confirmed once again a resumption of the underlying uptrend as the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows extends. The yellow metal also traded higher Tuesday. Price recently cleared $1892.7, 76.4% of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. This signals scope for $1917.6, high Jan 8 and further out, attention is on $1959.4, Jan 6 high and key resistance. Initial firm support is $1852.3.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Focus

  • RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
  • RES 3: $30.000 - Round number resistance
  • RES 2: $29.053 - High Feb 2
  • RES 1: $28.753 - High May 18
  • PRICE: $27.909 @ 07:27 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: $27.202 - Low May 21
  • SUP 2: $26.918 - 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $26.721 - Low Mar 13 and key near-term support
  • SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver is consolidating but remains bullish. Price action on May 18 probed $28.609, 76.4% of the sell-off between Feb 1 - Mar 31. This session's high of $28.753 marks a short-term bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for strength towards $29.00 and above. Key short-term support has been defined at $26.721, Mar 13 low. Clearance of this level is required to threaten the trend. Initial support is at $27.202.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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