MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURUSD Outlook Firms Through 1.10

Price Signal Summary – EURUSD Outlook Firms Through 1.10

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. A strong rally on Nov 14 resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The short-term trend condition is overbought and a move lower would allow this overbought reading to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position.
• The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair has traded higher this week, resulting in a break of the 1.1000 handle and new multi-month highs. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The next objective is 1.1065, the Aug 10 high. USDJPY maintains this week’s bearish theme and is trading lower today. Price is through support at 147.15, Nov 21 low. This break cancels a recent bullish pattern and instead confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. USDCAD maintains a softer tone. Last week’s bearish extension resulted in the break of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low. The weekly close below the trendline and this week’s extension lower, reinforces a bearish theme.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s strong rally reinforces this set-up. The yellow metal has traded through resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. The clear break of this hurdle has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The trend outlook in WTI futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Attention is on support at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late September and maintain a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and this week’s gains are a positive development. The contract has traded above resistance at 131.74, the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Gilt futures traded lower last week. The pullback is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle remains in play. Key short-term support is currently seen at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The latest recovery from this level is a positive development and a continuation higher would open 98.05.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1017 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.1002 @ 05:57 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 1.0852/0756 Low Nov 22 / High Nov 5, recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.0752 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair has traded higher this week, resulting in a break of the 1.1000 handle and new multi-month highs. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The next objective is 1.1065, the Aug 10 high and a key resistance. Note that the trend condition remains overbought, a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial support to watch is 1.0852, the Nov 22 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2800 High Aug 22
• RES 2: 1.2779 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2733 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2711 @ 06:17 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 1.2591/2445 High Nov 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2382 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and this week’s climb reinforces current conditions. The extension maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price has breached 1.2720, 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. This opens 1.2779, a vol band resistance and 1.2800, the Aug 22 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch at 1.2445, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8725/68 High Nov 22 / 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8702 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8651 @ 06:29 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 0.8650 Low Nov 6 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8630 50.0% retracement of the Aug 23 - Nov 20 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8598 61.8% retracement of the Aug 23 - Nov 20 bull run

EURGBP maintains a softer tone and the cross has traded lower this week. Price is approaching support at 0.8650, the Nov 6 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and pave the way for a move towards 0.8630, a Fibonacci retracement. Further out, a break lower would open 0.8616, the Oct 11 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8702, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

• RES 4: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• RES 2: 149.75 High Nov 22
• RES 1: 149.09 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 147.08 @ 06:39 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 146.57 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 2: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
• SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run

USDJPY maintains this week’s bearish theme and is trading lower today. Price is through support at 147.15, Nov 21 low. This break cancels a recent bullish pattern and instead confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. Attention is on support at 146.57, a trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. A break would strengthen the bearish threat and open 145.91, Sep 11 low. Key S/T resistance has been defined at 149.75, the Nov 22 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 165.99 1.382 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 2: 164.30 High Nov 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 163.72 High Nov 27
• PRICE: 161.80 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 161.25 Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 160.29 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 159.07 Low Nov 1 / 2
• SUP 4: 157.70 Low Oct 30

The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the recent move lower appears to be a correction - for now. The cross has pierced support at the 20-day EMA - at 161.97 today. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA, at 160.29. On the upside, a clearance of 164.30, the Nov 16 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 164.77, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6752 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 2: 0.6686 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6676 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6632 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 0.6506 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6460 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4:0.6315 Low Oct 31

AUDUSD traded higher again Tuesday and has maintained a firmer tone. The rally this week reinforces the bullish significance of the recent break of resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Price has also breached 0.6656, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg. This signals scope for an extension towards 0.6686, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. On the downside, firm support is seen at 0.6506, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 1.3953 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 1.3697 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3562 @ 08:15 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 1.3541 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3401 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase

USDCAD maintains a softer tone. Last week’s bearish extension resulted in the break of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low. The weekly close below the trendline and this week’s extension lower, reinforces a bearish theme. Sights are on 1.3496, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key resistance remains at 1.3777, the Nov 16 high. A breach of this hurdle would be a bullish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Clears Resistance To Resume Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 134.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 133.45 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 132.97 1.618 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 132.78 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 132.34 @ 05:24 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 130.53 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 130.11 Low Nov 24 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 129.60 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 129.35 Low Nov 7 / 13 and key short-term support

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and this week’s gains are a positive development. The contract has traded above resistance at 131.74, the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are set on 132.78, the Sep 1 high and a key resistance. Key support has been defined at 130.11, the Nov 24 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Heading North

• RES 4: 118.370 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.751 1.618 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 117.710 Intraday high
• PRICE: 117.550 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 116.840 Low Nov 28
• SUP 2: 116.591 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.260 Low Nov 27 and key support
• SUP 4: 116.000 Low Nov 13

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and this week’s strong rally has reinforced this theme. The contract has cleared resistance at 117.230, the Nov 17 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Sep 28. The break higher paves the way for a move to 117.751, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.260, the Nov 27 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 105.560 High Sep 1
• RES 3: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 1: 105.335 High Nov 2 and key resistance
• PRICE: 105.320 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 105.096 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 104.915 Low NOv 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing

Schatz futures reversed course Monday and the cross has continued to appreciate. The continuation higher has exposed resistance at 105.335, the Nov 2 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 21. This would open 105.372, 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - 21 downleg. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 105.096, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Remains Above Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 98.05 High Nov 17 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 97.93 High Nov 22
• RES 2: 97.39 76.4% retracement of the Nov 17 - 24 downleg
• RES 1: 97.00 High Nov 28
• PRICE: 96.87 @ Close Nov 28
• SUP 1: 95.25 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 94.74 2.618 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 94.56 2.764 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower last week. The pullback is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle remains in play. Key short-term support is currently seen at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The latest recovery from this level is a positive development and a continuation higher would open 98.05, the Nov 17 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 95.25 would instead strengthen a bearish threat and expose 94.74, a Fibonacci projection.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 116.76 High Jul 27 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 1: 114.89 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 114.84 @ Close Nov 28
• SUP 1: 113.07/112.17 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 110.81 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 109.64 Low Nov 1
• SUP 4: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. This week’s rally is also a positive development. The recent break of resistance at 113.00, the Nov 9 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 19. Potential is for a climb towards 115.56, the Aug 24 high and the next key resistance. The next bull trigger is 114.89, the Nov 17 high. Key short-term support is seen at 112.17, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 4500.00 High 1
• RES 3: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 4407.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 31 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 4388.00 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 4352.00 @ 06:02 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 4290.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4246.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10
• SUP 4: 4143.00 Low Nov 8

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The short-term trend condition is overbought and a move lower would allow this overbought reading to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher. A resumption of gains would open 4388.00, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4290.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4644.75 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4597.50 High Sep and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4580.50 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 4570.25 @ 06:33 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: 4501.75/4473.54 Low Nov 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4425.17 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4354.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 4257.75 Low Nov 3

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. A strong rally on Nov 14 resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 4473.54, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $91.04 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $88.55 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $83.62 - High Nov 14 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $81.62 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $76.71 - Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: $75.07 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 15 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.50 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.45 - Low Jun 23

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and recent gains still appear to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend and price remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The focus is on $76.71 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish threat. The bear trigger is $76.60, the Nov 8 low. Key short-term resistance is at $83.97, the Nov 14 high.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $79.85 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $77.80 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $76.63 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $72.37 - Low Nov 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

The trend outlook in WTI futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Attention is on support at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late September and maintain a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Key resistance is unchanged at $79.65, the Nov 14 high.

GOLD TECHS: Impulsive Rally Extends

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 2022 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2052.0 - High Nov 29
• PRICE: $2043.7 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $2009.4 - High Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $1983.8/1958.1 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s strong rally reinforces this set-up. The yellow metal has traded through resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. The clear break of this hurdle has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for an extension towards 2063.0, the May 4 high and a key resistance. Note the all-time high at $2070.4 (Mar 8 ‘22). Initial firm support is at $1983.8, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 2: $25.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.203 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $24.928 @ 07:28 GMT Nov 29
• SUP 1: $23.571/23.205 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the metal has traded higher this week. The break higher maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies have crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position. This reinforces current bullish conditions. The focus is on $25.267, the Jul 20 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support lies at $23.205, the 50-day EMA.