MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - FI Futures Bear Trend Extends

Price Signal Summary - Path Of Least Resistance in FI Futures Remains Down

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain soft and continue to trade closer to recent lows. Last week’s breach of 3900.00, the Sep 7 low, strengthened bearish conditions and signals scope for a move towards 3819.54 next, 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 bull leg. A break would open 3741.75, the Jul 14 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal on Sep 13 and the subsequent move lower. A key support at 3423.00, the Sep 5 low, has been pierced. A clear break would expose 3360.00, the Jul 16 low.
• In FX, the EURUSD outlook remains bearish and the pair is trading lower. Price remains inside the bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high and attention is on the bear trigger at 0.9864, Sep 6 low. The channel top intersects at 1.0087 and marks a key resistance. A channel breakout is required to signal a short-term reversal. GBPUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the downtrend has again resumed. The recent break of support at 1.1406, Sep 7 low, confirmed a continuation of the downtrend. The focus is on 1.1248, 1.618 projection of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing. USDJPY is consolidating and this pause in the uptrend appears to be a bullish pennant formation. This pattern reinforces the broader bullish theme and attention is on the bull trigger at 144.99, Sep 7 high. A break would resume the uptrend and open 145.28 and 146.03, the 2.618 and 2.764 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing. Initial firm support is at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 141.43.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear downtrend and last Thursday’s bearish extension reinforces this theme - price has cleared support at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and this confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early March. Attention is on $1640.9 next, the Aug 8 2020 low. Initial resistance is at $1688.9, the Sep 1 low. In the Oil space, the WTI futures outlook is bearish and today’s gains are considered corrective. The recent break of support at $85.37, Aug 16 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8. A resumption of weakness would open $79.83 next, the Feb 18 low. Firm resistance is at $89.86, the 50-day EMA.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and Tuesday’s extension lower confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started early August. 140.67, the Jun 16 low (cont), has been pierced. A clear break would open the psychological 140.00 handle. Gilts remain vulnerable and futures touched a fresh trend low of 103.60 on Tuesday. Attention is on 103.31 the Jun 2008 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 1.0368 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 2: 1.0198/0249 High Sep 12 / 76.4% of Aug 10 - Sep 6 downleg
• RES 1: 1.0087 Bear channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• PRICE: 0.9905 @ 08:43 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 0.9885 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.9864 Low Sep 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD is trading lower. The pair remains vulnerable following the Sep 13 reversal and price remains inside the bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0087 and marks a key resistance. A close above it would highlight a stronger reversal and a channel breakout. With resistance in place and moving average studies in a bear mode condition, the focus is on the bear trigger at 0.9864, the Sep 6 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle Lows

• RES 4: 1.1810 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1783 High Aug 29
• RES 2: 1.1588/1738 20-day EMA / High Sep 13 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1461 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.1340 @ 08:50 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 1.1305 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1248 1.618 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 1.1153 1.764 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing

GBPUSD has once again resumed its downtrend. The reversal lower last week reinforced bearish conditions and the continued weakness maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, signalling scope for a continuation. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode set-up too. The focus is on 1.1324, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is 1.1738, Sep 13 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8788 High Sep 19
• PRICE: 0.8761 @ 05:52 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 0.8715 Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: 0.8647 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8569 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30

EURGBP is consolidating and holding on to its recent gains. The short-term outlook remains bullish. Last Friday’s rally confirmed a break of key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. The climb resumes the bull cycle that started early March and opens 0.8811 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8647, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Outlook

• RES 4: 147.25 3.00 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 146.52 1.236 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 2: 146.03 2.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 1: 144.99/145.28 High Sep 7 / 2.618 proj of Aug 2 - 8 - 11 swing
• PRICE: 143.96 @ 05:55 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 141.51 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 141.43 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 139.87 Low Sep 2
• SUP 4: 138.49 50-day EMA

USDJPY continues to consolidate and importantly for bulls, remains closer to its recent highs. Trend readings are bullish with key short-term resistance at 144.99, Sep 7 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 145.28 and 146.03, Fibonacci projections. Initial firm support has been defined at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 141.43. A break of this zone would highlight a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 147.56 2.50 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 146.97 2.382 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 146.23 2.236 proj of the Aug 2- 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 144.48/145.64 High Sep 14 / 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 142.43 @ 08:52 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 141.93 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 141.68 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 140.02 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 138.69 Low Sep 5

EURJPY remains below 145.64, the Sep 9 high. The outlook is bullish and the recent pullback is still considered corrective. The break this month of 144.28, Jun 28 high and a major resistance, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started in March 2022. The focus is on 146.23, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 141.68, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 140.02 - a key support.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Has Been Cleared

• RES 4: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6916 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6747/94 Hi Sep 20 / 20-day EMA /
• PRICE: 0.6662 @ 08:03 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 2: 0.6612 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 0.6568 Low May 27 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6538 Low May 26 2020

AUDUSD is trading lower and is once again below key support at 0.6682, Jul 14 low. A clear break of this level strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. Sights are on 0.6647 next, a Fibonacci projection ahead of 0.6612, the May 29 low. The Sep 13 high of 0.6916 marks a key short-term resistance. A break of this level is required to alter the picture.

USDCAD TECHS: Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 1.3500 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.3462 1.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3421/31 High Sep 30 2020 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.3394 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3375 @ 08:14 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 1.3227 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 1.3132/2954 20-day EMA / Low Sep 13
• SUP 3: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2828 Low Aug 17

USDCAD maintains a clear bullish tone and the pair has traded higher today. The extension reinforces bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting current market sentiment. Sights are set on 1.3421 next, Sep 30 2020 high. On the downside, initial support is at 1.3227, yesterday’s low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bear Trend Resumed

• RES 4: 146.81 High Sep 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 144.88 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 143.87 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 142.58 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 140.86 @ 04:19 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 140.67/53 Low Jun 16 2022 / Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 139.20 3.382 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.68 Low Jan 2014

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and Tuesday’s extension lower confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started early August. The 142.00 handle has been cleared and sights are on the next major support at 140.67, the Jun 16 low (cont). This level has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen the broader bearish outlook and open the psychological 140.00 handle. The 20-day EMA, at 144.88 is a firm resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 123.160 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 122.503 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 121.570 High Sep 16 / 19
• RES 1: 121.120 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 120.300 @ 04:29 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 120.170 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 119.940 Low Jun 16 and key support (cont)
• SUP 3: 119.782 1.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.260 Low Aug 2011

The trend needle in Bobl futures still points south and yesterday’s move lower has reinforced bearish conditions. The break lower exposes the next key support at 119.940, the Jun 16 low (cont) and the bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and open 119.782 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 122.503, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 108.045 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 107.988 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 107.585 High Sep 19
• RES 1: 107.380 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 107.105 @ 04:41 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 107.060 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 107.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 106.885 Low Apr 2011
• SUP 4: 106.730 2.00 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

The Schatz futures trend direction remains down and the contract traded to a fresh trend low once again yesterday, confirming an extension of the bear cycle. This also maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs with moving average studies in a bear mode position. The focus is on the 107.00 handle next. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1207.9988, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Heading South

• RES 4: 107.93 High Sep 1
• RES 3: 107.06 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 106.84 High Sep 8 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.77 High Sep 15
• PRICE: 103.82 @ Close Sep 20
• SUP 1: 103.60/31 Low Sep 20 / Low Jun 2008
• SUP 2: 103.05 2.236 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 102.90 Low Jul 2007
• SUP 4: 102.54 2.382 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures resumed their downtrend Tuesday and the contract traded through last week’s low of 104.47 on Sep 14. The break lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and yesterday’s extension cleared the 103.87 objective, 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing. This opens 103.05, the 2.236 projection. Key short-term resistance is seen at 106.84, the Sep 8 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Cracks Key Support

• RES 4: 118-00 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 117-13+ 50 day EMA values
• RES 2: 116-03+/26 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
• RES 1: 115-01 High Sep 15
• PRICE: 113-25 @ 16:40 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: 113-20+ Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 113-19 Low Jun 19 2009 (cont)
• SUP 3: 113-06 2.236 proj of the Mar ‘20 - Apr ‘21 - Aug ‘21 swing
• SUP 4: 112-25+ Low Jun 11 2009

Treasuries remain soft and the contract traded lower Tuesday. Importantly for bears, the contract breached key support at 114-06, the Jun 14 low. The break confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and strengthens the underlying bearish condition. This paves the way for a test of the 114.00 handle where a break would open 113-19, the Jun 19 2009 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 116-03+, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 122.59 High Aug 19
• RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.07/119.06 High Sep 19 / High Sep 8 and key resistance
• PRICE: 114.95 @ Close Sep 20
• SUP 1: 114.67 Low Sep 22
• SUP 2: 113.78 Low Jun 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 112.94 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.22 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - 8 price swing

BTP futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. The contract traded below last week’s lows and the break lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the major support at 113.78, Jun 14 low (cont). Clearance of this level would strengthen the broader bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 119.06, the Sep 8 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 3549.50/3678.00 20-day EMA / High Sep 13 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 3441.00 @ 08:32 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 3420.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3360.00 Low Jul 16
• SUP 3: 3341.00 Low Jul 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3300.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft following the reversal last week from 3678.00, the Jun 13 high. Attention is on a key short-term support at 3423.00, the Sep 5 low. This has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and open 3360.00, the Jul 16 low. 3678.00 is the short-term bull trigger where a break would reinstate a bullish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 3549.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4345.75 High Aug 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4313.50 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 4002.92/4175.00/47 20-day EMA / High Sep 13
• PRICE: 3877.50 @ 05:11 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 3843.25 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 3819.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 Aug 16 bull leg
• SUP 3: 3741.75 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3657.00 Low Jun 17 and a major support

S&P E-Minis remain soft. A bearish outlook follows last week’s reversal and break of a key short-term support at 3900.00, the Sep 7 low. This confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started mid-August and has paved the way for a move towards 3819.54, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4175.00, the Sep 13 high. Initial resistance is at 4002.92, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X2) Bear Threat Still Present Despite Bounce

• RES 4: $107.30 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $103.86 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: $95.78 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $94.66 - High Sep 15
• PRICE: $93.21 @ 07:06 BST Sep 20
• SUP 1: $88.50/87.24 - Low Sep 19 / 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $86.54 - Low Mar 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $82.59 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $80.71 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 17 - 30 price swing

Brent futures have traded higher today. The outlook however remains bearish and last Thursday’s move lower reinforces this theme. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of $89.06, Jul 14 low and a bear trigger highlights a resumption of the downtrend that started early August and a resumption of weakness would open $86.54, the Mar 9 low. Firm resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA which intersects at $95.78.

WTI TECHS: (X2) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $97.91 - High Jul 29 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: $96.82 - High Aug 30 and key resistance
• RES 2: $89.86 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $87.03 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $86.35 @ 08:23 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $81.73/80.89 - Low Sep 19/ 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $79.31 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 3: $77.86 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Jan 24

A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and today’s bounce is considered corrective. The recent break of support at $84.25, the Jul 14 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and also highlights the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. A resumption of weakness would open $79.31 next, the Feb 18 low. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at $89.86, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $1783.2 - High Aug 16
• RES 3: $1765.5 - High Aug 25 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1737.6 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1688.9/1735.1 - Low Sep 1 / High Sep 12
• PRICE: $1671.1 @ 08:36 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $1654.2 - Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: $1640.9 - Low Aug 8 2020
• SUP 3: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

Gold is consolidating. The yellow metal remains in a clear downtrend and last week’s extension lower reinforces this theme. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started early March - price has cleared support at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low. Attention is on $1640.9 next, the Aug 8 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $1735.1, the Sep 12 high. Initial resistance is at $1688.9, the Sep 1 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Reversal Threat

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $20.014 - High Sep 12
• PRICE: $19.398 @ 08:40 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $18.782/17.562 - Low Sep 16 / Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 3: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: $15.998 - 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg

Silver is unchanged and remains below its recent highs. Friday’s print below $18.845, Sep 12 low, signals the end of the recent corrective recovery between Sep 1 - 12. An extension lower would pave the way for a move towards the key support and bear trigger at $17.562, the Sep 1 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. A break of $20.014, Sep 12 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme.