MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Through Notable Resistance

Price Signal Summary – GBP Trades Through Important Resistance

• A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Monday. Price has cleared resistance at 5600.75, the Aug 1 high and this signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures are unchanged. The contract traded higher last week and price is holding on to its latest gains. The contract has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4873.86. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
• GBPUSD bullish conditions remain intact and recent gains have reinforced the current trend set-up. The pair has traded through two important resistance points; 1.3142/43, the Jul 14 ’23 high and the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low. USDJPY continues to trade below the Aug 15 high and firm resistance at the 20-day EMA is intact. The trend structure is bearish and moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70. A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and Friday’s gains reinforce the current bullish condition. The latest move higher has cancelled a recent bearish theme. Price has cleared 0.6693, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg.
• WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract traded sharply higher Monday. The move is considered corrective, however, price has breached resistance at $76.30, the 50-day EMA. Gold remains in a bull-mode condition and the yellow metal is trading at its recent highs. The recent breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up. 
• Bund futures remain in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. Note that the move lower has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. A resumption of bullish price action would signal scope for a climb towards the 101.00 handle. MNI (LONDON)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 1.1300Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
• RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1202 High AUg 26 
• PRICE: 1.1168 @ 05:48 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 1.1098/1021 Low Aug 22 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0925 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3 

EURUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s appreciation reinforces a bullish set-up. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 1.1234 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and any corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term support to watch is seen at 1.1021, the 20-day EMA.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact   

• RES 4: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg   
• RES 2: 1.3261 1.382 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3230 High Aug 23 
• PRICE: 1.3192 @ 05:55 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 1.3077 Low Aug 22 
• SUP 2: 1.3044/2955 High Jul 17 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2860/2665 50-day EMA / Low Aug 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support

GBPUSD bullish conditions remain intact and recent gains have reinforced the current trend set-up. The pair has traded through two important resistance points; 1.3142/43, the Jul 14 ’23 high and the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low. This reinforces bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.3261, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch is 1.2955, the 20-day EMA.               

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play  

• RES 4: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 0.8593/8625 High Aug 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8545 High Aug 21 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.8508 20-Day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8463 @ 06:11 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 0.8450 Low Aug 26 
• SUP 2: 0.8440 61.8% retracement of the Jul 17 - Aug 8 rally 
• SUP 3: 0.8418 Low Aug 1
• SUP 4: 0.8411 Low Jul 30

EURGBP maintains a weaker short-term tone and the cross traded lower last week. The move down has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Note that the 50-day EMA has given way and a clear break of it is a concern for bulls. The move lower exposes 0.8440, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8545, the Aug 21 high. A move higher and a break of this level would signal a potential reversal.      

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present        

• RES 4: 155.22 High Jul 30   
• RES 3: 151.38 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.89 High Aug 1     
• RES 1: 147.74 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 144.73 @ 06:36 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 143.45 Low Aug 26    
• SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28   

USDJPY continues to trade below the Aug 15 high and firm resistance at the 20-day EMA is intact. The trend structure is bearish and moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Resistance is at 147.74, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger correction.    

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now     

• RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14  
• RES 3: 165.33 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 164.09 200 DMA      
• RES 1: 163.89 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 161.68 @ 07:03 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12   
• SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support

EURJPY is in consolidation mode and trades just below its recent highs. The outlook is bearish, and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The latest move higher has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced resistance at 162.79, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at 165.33. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23       
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance                  
• RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 0.6799 High Jul 11 / Aug 23 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6780 @ 07:58 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 0.6697/6644 Low Aug 22 / 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15 
• SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and Friday’s gains reinforce the current bullish condition. The latest move higher has cancelled a recent bearish theme. Price has cleared 0.6693, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. The clear break of this price point strengthens a bullish theme and sights are on 0.6799, the Jul 11 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6697, the Aug 22 low.      

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Accelerates   

• RES 4: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3791 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 1.3641/3667 High Aug 20 / 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3617 High August 23
• PRICE: 1.3482 @ 08:02 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 1.3463 Low Aug 26
• SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD traded lower Monday, marking an extension once again of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. The move lower reinforces the current bearish condition. Furthermore, 1.3589, the Jul 11 low, has recently been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. This sets the scene for an extension towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3617, Friday’s intraday high.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North 

• RES 4: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing        
• RES 3: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 136.28 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger  
• RES 1: 135.17/135.59 High Aug 14 / 6                     
• PRICE: 134.15 @ 05:28 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 134.16 20-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 133.32 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 132.08 Low Jul 26   
• SUP 4: 131.62 Low Jul 22 and a key support 

Bund futures remain in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. A resumption of the trend would open 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The recent pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 134.16, the 20-day EMA.    

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Monitoring Support

• RES 4: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 3: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 2:  119.090 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger     
• RES 1: 118.300/118.530 High Aug 14 / 6                
• PRICE: 118.000 @ 05:50 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 117.734 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 117.277/116.700 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26   
• SUP 3: 116.320 Low Jul 22 
• SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11

Bobl futures are trading within a range. The uptrend is intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high appears to be a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of a key resistance at 117.160, the Jun 14 high. This break, together with the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. First resistance is at 118.300, the Aug 14 high. Initial firm support is 117.734, the 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Remains Above Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 1: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 106.215 @ 05:42 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 106.197 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 106.014/105.820 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26  
• SUP 3: 105.630/495 Low Jul 22 / 11 
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support 

An uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. For now, the contract continues to trade above a firm support at 106.197, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would be seen as an early bearish threat. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 106.014. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal the end of the corrective cycle and open 106.916, a Fibonacci projection.                       

GILT TECHS: (Z4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish                                         

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 100.79 1.2136 proj of the Aug 12 - 14 - 23 price swing 
• RES 2: 100.30 High Aug 14
• RES 1: 99.85 High Aug 22   
• PRICE: 99.48 @ Close Aug 23
• SUP 1: 98.99 50-day EMA (cont)       
• SUP 2: 98.92 Low Aug 26   
• SUP 3: 98.79 Low Aug 12 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 4: 98.00 Round number support 

The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. Note that the move lower has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. A resumption of bullish price action would signal scope for a climb towards the 101.00 handle. Support to watch is 98.79, the Aug 12 low. Moving average studies on the continuation chart remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.      

BTP TECHS: (U4) Bullish Theme    

• RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 1: 120.00/06 Psychological round number / High Aug 22
• PRICE: 119.53 @ Close Aug 26
• SUP 1: 119.10/118.32 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 117.36 Low Jul 26 
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8
• SUP 4: 114.72 Low Jul 2

The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish. Resistance at 119.57, the Aug 2 high, has been breached and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break opens the 120.00 handle next (pierced). Price remains above initial firm support at 119.10, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 118.32. A clear breach of both EMAs would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play          

• RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12   
• RES 3: 4997.00 High Jul 17     
• RES 2: 4951.00 High Jul 31 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 4935.00 High Aug 23   
• PRICE: 4919.00 @ 06:18 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 4839.22 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 4742.00 Low Aug 15  
• SUP 3: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing

Eurostoxx 50 futures are unchanged. The contract traded higher last week and price is holding on to its latest gains. The contract has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4873.86. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on 4951.00 next, the Jul 31 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4494.00, the Aug 5 low.             

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Bull Cycle Still In Play          

• RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing  
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
• RES 1: 5669.00 High Aug 26        
• PRICE: 5636.50 @ 07:16 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: 5499.152 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 5438.75/5319.50 Low Aug 14 / 9 
• SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8 
• SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Monday. Price has cleared resistance at 5600.75, the Aug 1 high and this signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend. On the downside, support to watch lies at 5499.15, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it is required to instead highlight a potential bearish threat.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Bullish Extension   

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $84.22 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low 
• RES 1: $82.40 - High Aug 12 and key resistance     
• PRICE: $81.38 @ 07:02 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: $79.24/75.05 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 5 and a key support  
• SUP 2: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing   

Brent futures traded sharply higher Monday, marking an extension of the rebound from the Aug 21 low. The contract has cleared the 50-day EMA and this undermines the recent bearish theme. Attention turns to the key short-term resistance at $82.40, the Aug 12 high. A break would highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, a reversal lower would instead refocus attention on $75.05, the Aug 5 low and key support.    

WTI TECHS: (V4) Recovery Extends   

• RES 4: $83.45 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $82.62 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $80.82 - High Jul 18  
• RES 1: $78.54 - High Aug 12 and key resistance     
• PRICE: $77.32 @ 07:11 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: $75.04/70.88 - Intraday low / Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $70.43 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $68.92 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract traded sharply higher Monday. The move is considered corrective, however, price has breached resistance at $76.30, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of the average undermines the recent bearish theme and attention turns to key resistance at $78.54, the Aug 12 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on $70.88 key support.     

GOLD TECHS: Northbound   

• RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance    
• RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
• RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing 
• RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20                 
• PRICE: $2516.5 @ 07:16 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: $2466.7 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2420.0/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25 
• SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7 
• SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support

Gold remains in a bull-mode condition and the yellow metal is trading at its recent highs. The recent breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2466.7, the 20-day EMA.        

SILVER TECHS: Remains Above The 50-Day EMA   

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg                
• PRICE: $30.022 @ 08:05 BST Aug 27
• SUP 1: $28.871/26.451- 20-day EMA / Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27 
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent gains appear to be a correction - for now. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low and this exposed at key support at $26.018, May 2 low. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the 50-day EMA has been cleared and is a concern for bears. A continuation higher would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502 next, a Fibonacci retracement.