MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP/USD Extends Winning Streak

Price Signal Summary – GBP/USD Extends Winning Streak

• The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish and the latest climb reinforces this theme. Furthermore, recent consolidation in the daily chart appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the contract traded higher Thursday. This maintains the recovery that started in early October and marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• GBPUSD printed another higher high Thursday, extending the recent up trend. The move cements an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting current sentiment. Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish and the pair traded lower Thursday. The reversal from Tuesday’s high of 142.25 signals the end of the corrective bounce between Nov 15 - 22.The AUDUSD trend condition remains bullish and this week’s recovery reinforces this theme. Firm support lies at 0.6576, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be seen as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish. Recent gains resulted in the break of $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This has strengthened a bullish theme and signals scope for $1800.0 and a key resistance at $1807.9, Aug 10 high. WTI futures sold off sharply Wednesday. A bearish theme remains in place following recent weakness and an extension of the reversal from $92.53, Nov 7 high. Support at $80.49, Oct 18 low and a bear trigger, was cleared on Nov 18.
• Bund futures have breached the recent high of 141.09, the Nov 17 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has also cleared the 50-day EMA at 140.11. Short-term trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish and the contract resumed its uptrend yesterday. Fresh cycle highs maintain the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving averages appear to be highlighting a bull mode set-up.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0559 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.0479 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0413 @ 06:00 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 1.0297 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 1.0223/0198 Low NOv 21 / High Sep 12
• SUP 3: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 4: 1.0072 50-day EMA

EURUSD is holding on to this week’s gains and remains above 1.0223, the Nov 21 low. This week’s recovery signals the end of a correction between Nov 15 - 21 and attention is on key short-term resistance at 1.0479, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.0536, the Jun 29 high. On the downside, 1.0223 marks the key short-term support.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 1.2276 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 1.2192 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.2154 High Nov 24
• RES 1: 1.2138 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.2101 @ 06:24 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 1.2000/1.1873 Round number support / Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 1.1737 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1598 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1500 Round number support

GBPUSD printed another higher high Thursday, extending the recent up trend. The move cements an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on 1.2192 next, the 200-dma. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 1.1737, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 3: 0.8776/8829 High Nov 16 / 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8700 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8687 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8606 @ 06:37 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 0.8572 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP edged lower again Thursday, extending the bear leg from 0.8829, the Nov 9 high. Attention is on the Oct 31 low of 0.8560, where a break would strengthen a bearish theme. This would open 0.8522, Aug 30 low. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode position and this suggests that the broader uptrend is intact. A break of 0.8560 would threaten this bullish theme. Key resistance is at 0.8829.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 145.11 Low Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 143.18 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 139.64/142.25 High Nov 24 / High Nov 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 138.51 @ 06:43 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 137.68 Low Nov 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish and the pair traded lower Thursday. The reversal from Tuesday’s high of 142.25 signals the end of the corrective bounce between Nov 15 - 22. Attention is on the bear trigger at 137.68, the Nov 15 low where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 142.25.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 146.14 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 144.34 @ 06:51 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 143.35 Low Nov 14
• SUP 2: 142.57 Low Nov 11 and the bear Trigger
• SUP 3: 141.60 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg
• SUP 4: 140.90 Low Oct 10

EURJPY remains below Wednesday’s high of 146.14. The cross has failed to confirm a clear break of short-term trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 21 high. Key near-term resistance at 141.10 also remains intact, Nov 9 high. This cements the underlying bearish threat, which holds as long as price remains below the short-term trendline resistance that intersects at 145.69 today. An extension lower would open the bear trigger at 142.57, Nov 11 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6797 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6772 @ 06:55 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 0.6634/6585 Low Nov 23 / 21
• SUP 2: 0.6576 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bullish and this week’s recovery reinforces this theme. Firm support lies at 0.6576, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be seen as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a continuation higher and a break of 0.6797, the Nov 15 high, would resume the uptrend and open the 0.6800 handle.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3628 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3495 High Nov 21
• PRICE: 1.3334 @ 15:45 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 1.3301/3226 Low Nov 18 / 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD pierced the 50-day EMA on Monday but has since pulled back. A firm break of this average, at 1.3442, would undermine the recent bearish theme. This would expose 1.3571, the Nov 10 high, where a break would also signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 1.3628, trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.3226, the Nov 15 low. A break would resume bearish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 144.29 1.236 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 2: 142.75 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bear leg
• RES 1: 142.60 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 141.97 @ 05:20 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 139.55/138.26 20-day EMA / Low Nov 14
• SUP 2: 136.92 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 135.23 Low Oct 24

Bund futures have breached the recent high of 141.09, the Nov 17 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has also cleared the 50-day EMA at 140.11. The clear break of this average highlights a stronger short-term reversal. Potential is seen for a climb towards 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 139.55.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Price Activity

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.700 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 120.300 @ 05:28 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 119.715 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 119.180 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 118.710 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 118.260 Low Nov 8 and a key support

Bobl futures traded higher Thursday, piercing resistance at 120.530, the Nov 10 high. The outlook remains bullish and note that the contract is also trading just above the 50-day EMA, at 120.186 today. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen bullish conditions and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, Oct 4 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 119.180, the Nov 14 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Still Looking For A Break Higher

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.092 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.830 @ 05:26 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures are unchanged and continue to trade in a range and above the Nov 8 low. The trend condition remains bearish, however, a resumption of gains would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.092. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is the bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 110.62 0.764 proj of the Oct 12 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 109.89 Low Jun 16 (cont)
• RES 2: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 1: 109.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 107.92 @ Close Nov 24
• SUP 1: 106.51/.105.00 Low Nov 23 / 18
• SUP 2: 104.64 Low Nov 16
• SUP 3: 103.51 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 101.60 Low Nov 9

Short-term trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish and the contract resumed its uptrend yesterday. Fresh cycle highs maintain the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving averages appear to be highlighting a bull mode set-up. If confirmed this would reinforce the uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards 109.47 next, the Aug 31 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 105.00.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Northbound

• RES 4: 124.35 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 123.71 123.6 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.66 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 121.38 @ Close Nov 24
• SUP 1: 118.31/117.14 Low Nov 24 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.12 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.58 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 114.68 Low NOv 10

BTP futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high again yesterday. The outlook is bullish and this week’s break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price has cleared the 120.00 handle and this reinforces current conditions. The break higher opens 122.00 next. On the downside, initial firm support is at 117.14, the 20-day EMA.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 115-14+ 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 downleg
• RES 3: 114-17 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 113-15 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 113-11+ @ 15:09 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 112-14+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112-04 Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 111-27+ Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 110-12+ Low Nov 10

Treasury futures are trading higher and price has breached the Nov 16, 113-11 high. The break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and signals scope for a continuation higher. Price continues to trade above the 50-day EMA - the recent break of this average strengthened the case for bulls. Sights are on 113-30 next, the Oct 4 high and a key short-term resistance. Key support is at 112-04, the Nov 21 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Heading North

• RES 4: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 4049.50 High Feb 23 (cont)
• RES 2: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 3977.00 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 3960.00 @ 05:49 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 3840.00 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 17 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 3672.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3562.00 Low Nov 3

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the contract traded higher Thursday. This maintains the recovery that started in early October and marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent break of resistance at 3810.00, Aug 17 high, strengthened the case for bulls. The focus is on the 4000.00 psychological handle. Initial firm support lies at 3840, the Nov 17 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4050.75 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4043.25 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 3877.69 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish and the latest climb reinforces this theme. Furthermore, recent consolidation in the daily chart appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Recent gains also resulted in a break of 3928.00, Nov 1 high, establishing a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4100.00 next. Initial firm support lies at 3877.69, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 2: $96.95/99.56 - High Nov 14 / 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $90.63/91.56 - High Nov 18 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $85.58 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: $82.31 - Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key medium-term support
• SUP 3: $80.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $77.04 - Low Jan 3 (cont)

Brent futures traded lower Wednesday. A bearish theme remains intact. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at $87.52, Oct 18 low. This reinforces a bearish theme and note that $85.33, 76.4% of the Sep 26 - Nov 7 bull cycle has been cleared. The break signals scope for weakness towards $80.94, the Sep 26 low and a bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at $91.56 the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Bearish Trend Outlook

• RES 4: $97.51 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $94.11 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $89.20/92.53 - High Nov 11 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 1: $82.43/84.92 - High Nov 18 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $78..27 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: $74.96 - Low Sep 28 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 2: $73.38 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures sold off sharply Wednesday. A bearish theme remains in place following recent weakness and an extension of the reversal from $92.53, Nov 7 high. Support at $80.49, Oct 18 low and a bear trigger, was cleared on Nov 18. $79.11, 76.4% of the Sep 28 - Nov 7 bull phase has also been breached. Attention is on $74.96, the Sep 28 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at $84.92, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Technical Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $1786.5 - High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1755.3 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: $1726.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1664.8 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger

Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish. Recent gains resulted in the break of $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This has strengthened a bullish theme and signals scope for $1800.0 and a key resistance at $1807.9, Aug 10 high. The bull trigger is at $1786.5, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low. First support to watch is at the 20-day EMA that intersects at $1726.4.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Above Monday’s Low

• RES 4: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 3: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 1: $22.251/253 - High Nov 15 / 50.0% of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $21.252 @ 07:59 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: $20.585 - Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: $20.229 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 4: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and a recent move lower is considered corrective. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and subsequent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens short-term bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, opening $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. First support is seen at $20.585, Monday’s low.