MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Bull Cycle Extends

Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Resumes Its Uptrend       

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis is trading higher again, today. Last week’s gains highlight a bullish reversal and the end of the Sep 3 - 6 corrective cycle. The contract is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and resistance at 5730.50, the Sep 3 high, has been breached. This exposes 5785.00, the Jul 16 high and a bull trigger. Initial support lies at 5632.48, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded higher today as the contract extends the recovery that started Sep 10. It is still possible that the latest move higher is a correction. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position and this highlights a downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the key short-term support at 4729.00, the Sep 10 low. The next resistance to watch is 4934.52, 76.4% retracement of Sep 3 - 10 bear leg. A break would strengthen a bullish theme and expose 4998.00, the Sep 3 high.                                                                                                          
• In FX, the short-term in EURUSD remains bullish. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1072, has been pierced but remains intact for now. A continuation higher would open 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a break of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This week’s gains in GBPUSD have resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. The break of this level confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting a clear uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3328, 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg. Initial firm support is 1.3111, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY is trading above its most recent low, however, short-term gains are considered corrective. Bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has once again traded to a fresh cycle low this week. Sights are on 139.00 next, 1.382 projection of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing. Firm resistance is 143.66, 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, but remains intact for now.         
• On the commodity front, a bullish structure in Gold remains intact and the metal traded, once again, to a fresh all-time high, yesterday. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked the end of the recent period of consolidation - a pause in the uptrend. The focus is on $2613.3 next, a 2.00 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Firm support lies at $2542.3, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, the move higher since Sep 9 in WTI futures are trading higher today. The recovery since Sep 9, appears - for now - to be a correction. Recent weakness reinforced a bearish condition and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the downtrend would open $63.89 next, a 1.618 projection of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing. The 20-day EMA, at $70.09, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open $72.58, the 50-day EMA. 
• In the FI space, Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The move down has resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA, at 134.29. This signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 133.55. Clearance of this average would undermine a bullish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. A bull cycle in Gilt futures is still in play, however, the pullback from Tuesday’s peak highlights the start of a correction. This is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch is 100.03, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 101.54, the Sep 17 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact        

• RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023 
• RES 3: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1202 High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1189 High Sep 18  
• PRICE: 1.1121 @ 05:57 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 1.1072/1003 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.1002 Low Sep 11 
• SUP 3: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg

EURUSD has traded in a volatile manner over the past 24 hrs. The short-term outlook remains bullish and support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1072, has been pierced but remains intact for now. A resumption of gains would open 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A break of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches The Bull Trigger      

• RES 4: 1.3425 1.764 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3298 High Sep 18
• PRICE: 1.3215 @ 06:19 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 1.3111 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3002/3001 Low Sep 11 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2890 Low Aug 19
• SUP 4: 1.2852 Low Aug 16   

GBPUSD traded to a fresh trend high Wednesday, before pulling back. The move higher resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. The break of this level confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting a clear uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3328, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is 1.3111, the 20-day EMA.     

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present     

• RES 4: 0.8645 High Aug 21  
• RES 3: 0.8523 High AUg 22   
• RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 0.8463/64 50-day EMA / High Sep 12
• PRICE: 0.8418 @ 06:29 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 0.8400 Low Aug 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
• SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing  

EURGBP is trading in a choppy manner. A bearish theme remains intact and the cross continues to trade closer to its most recent lows. This month's move higher remains a shallow correction and still appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces current bearish conditions. A break lower would resume the downtrend and open 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is 0.8463, the 50-day EMA. 

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish         

• RES 4: 147.72 50-day EMA  
• RES 3: 147.21 High Sep 3  
• RES 2: 145.57 High Sep 4    
• RES 1: 143.66/95 20-day EMA / High Sep 19     
• PRICE: 142.79 @ 06:48 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: 139.00 1.382 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.30 1.50 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 2023  

USDJPY is trading above its most recent low, however, short-term gains are considered corrective. Bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has once again traded to a fresh cycle low this week. The recent breach of key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 139.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 143.66, 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, but remains intact for now.       

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends   

• RES 4: 162.89 High Sep 2 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 162.02 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 160.89 High Sep 4  
• RES 1: 159.68 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 159.59 @ 10:33 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / Low Sep 16  
• SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23

A bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact despite the latest bounce. MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. It suggests that gains are likely corrective. However, initial firm resistance at 159.05, the 20-day EMA, has been breached and this signals scope for a stronger recovery, towards 160.89, the Sep 4 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support at 154.42, the Aug 5 low.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Is Through Resistance      

• RES 4: 0.6915 0.618 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing       
• RES 3: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23                 
• RES 2: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6839 High Jan 2 
• PRICE: 0.6835 @ 10:44 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 0.6717 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6687/6622 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support 
• SUP 4: 0.6608 Low Aug 16

AUDUSD remains firm and the pair is trading higher today. Key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high, has been breached. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 5 and pave the way for a climb towards 0.6900, the Jun 16 ‘23 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 0.6622, the Sep 11 low. First support is 0.6717, the 20-day EMA.  

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Reversal 

• RES 4: 1.3753 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - 28 bear leg  
• RES 3: 1.3739 High Aug 15
• RES 2: 1.3693 High Aug 19 
• RES 1: 1.3624/47 50-day EMA / Intraday high   
• PRICE: 1.3535 @ 10:52 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 1.3520 61.8% retracement of the Aug 28 - Sep 19 correction
• SUP 2: 1.3490 61.8% retracement of the Aug 28 - Sep 19 correction
• SUP 3: 1.3441 Low Aug 28 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.3413 Low Feb 9

Recent strength in USDCAD appears to be corrective. Today’s strong reversal lower, reinforces this theme and suggests the Aug 28 - Sep 19 corrective cycle is over. A continuation lower would open 1.3490, a Fibonacci retracement, ahead of the key support and bear trigger at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3647, today’s intraday high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z4) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA     

• RES 4: 136.37 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg         
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.66 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 134.86/135.49 High Sep 18 / 11                     
• PRICE: 134.05 @ 05:33 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 133.55 50-day EMA             
• SUP 2: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29 
• SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26

Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The move down has resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA, at 134.29. This signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 133.55. Clearance of this average would undermine a bullish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high.         

BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Retracement Mode 

• RES 4: 120.905 1.50 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 120.722 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 120.496 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg    
• RES 1: 119.730/120.230 High Sep 18 / Sep 11 and the bull trigger                      
• PRICE: 119.370 @ 05:45 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 119.350 Intraday low       
• SUP 2: 119.210 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 rally  
• SUP 3: 119.030 Low Sep 4    
• SUP 4: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and key support 

A bullish condition in Bobl futures remains intact, however, a corrective cycle is in play for now and the contract is again trading lower. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 119.210, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.230, the Sep 11 high.                  

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Pullback 

• RES 4: 107.474 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 107.373 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 107.210 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.945/107.155 High Sep 18 / 11    
• PRICE: 106.835 @ 06:09 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 106.815 Low Sep 18       
• SUP 2: 106.763 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 rally    
• SUP 3: 106.670 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 rally
• SUP 4: 105.975 High Jun 14 (cont) 

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact despite the latest pullback. Note that the contract has pierced support at 106.837, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 106.763, a Fibonacci retracement. MA studies on the continuation chart remain in bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would open 107.210, the Aug 5 high and bull trigger.                          

GILT TECHS: (Z4) Pullback Considered Corrective                                                

• RES 4: 102.37 1.236 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 101.78 1.00 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing   
• RES 1: 101.06/101.54 High Sep 18 / 17       
• PRICE: 100.20 @ Close Sep 18
• SUP 1: 100.03 20-day EMA         
• SUP 2: 99.83 Low Sep 10    
• SUP 3: 99.29 Low Sep 9 
• SUP 4: 98.92 76.4% retracement of the Sep 2 - 17 bull leg  

A bull cycle in Gilt futures is still in play, however, the pullback from Tuesday’s peak highlights the start of a correction. This is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch is 100.03, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 101.54, the Sep 17 high.         

 BTP TECHS: (Z4) Trading Below Its Recent High        

• RES 4: 122.78 3.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
• RES 3: 122.22 3.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.59 High Sep 17 and key resistance  
• PRICE: 120.35 @ Close Sep 18
• SUP 1: 119.97 20-day EMA    
• SUP 2: 119.32 Low Sep 9   
• SUP 3: 118.85 Low Sep 4
• SUP 4: 118.16 LOw Sep 2 and key support

The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and this week’s trend high reinforces this condition. However, the strong reversal from Tuesday’s high, highlights the start of a correction and this is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 119.97, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, 121.59, the Sep 17 high, marks the bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend. 

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (Z4) Trend Needle Points North    

• RES 4: 116-07   1.764 proj of the Aug 8 - 21 - Sep 3    
• RES 3: 116-00   Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115-31   1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 21 - Sep 3   
• RES 1: 115-23+ High Sep 11 
• PRICE:‌‌ 115-00 @ 11:23 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 114-22+ 20-day EMA    
• SUP 2: 114-00+ Low Sep 4 
• SUP 3: 113-12   Low Sep 3       
• SUP 4: 113-17   50-day EMA 

Treasuries maintain a bullish theme and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. The Sep 11 high resulted in a print above key resistance and the bull trigger at 115-19, the Aug 5 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards the 116.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear medium-term uptrend. Firm support is seen at 114-22+, 20-day EMA.                           

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Trading Higher             

• RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance      
• RES 3: 4998.00 High Sep 3 and a bull trigger / 5012.00 High Jul 16   
• RES 2: 4934.52 76.4% retracement of Sep 3 - 10 bear leg 
• RES 1: 4921.00 Intraday high   
• PRICE: 4917.00 @ 10:55 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 4819.00/ 4729.00 Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 4686.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 4612.94 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4558.00 Low Aug 6  

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher today as the contract extends the recovery that started Sep 10. It is still possible that the latest move higher is a correction. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position and this highlights a downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the key short-term support at 4729.00, the Sep 10 low. The next resistance to watch is 4934.52, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would strengthen a bullish theme.                 

E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bull Cycle Extension                 

• RES 4: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing  
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5785.00 High Jul 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 5768.25 Intraday high         
• PRICE: 5767.00 @ 11:06 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 5632.48 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 5595.52 50-day EMA / 5424.75 Low Aug 13  
• SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support  
• SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger

S&P E-Minis traded to a fresh short-term high Wednesday and the contract maintains a firmer tone. Last week’s gains highlight a bullish reversal and the end of the Sep 3 - 6 corrective cycle. The contract is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and resistance at 5730.50, the Sep 3 high, has been breached. This exposes 5785.00, the Jul 16 high and a bull trigger. First key support is 5595.52, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X4) Gains Considered Corrective        

• RES 4: $83.74 - High Jul 18 
• RES 3: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
• RES 2: $76.83 - 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: $74.06/75 - 20-day EMA / Intraday high       
• PRICE: $74.42 @ 11:11 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: $68.68 - Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $67.63 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 3: $65.95 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $63.24 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

Brent futures are trading higher today. A downtrend remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on $67.63, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the downtrend is oversold. A stronger recovery would allow this condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been reached. The next resistance to watch is $76.83, the 50-day EMA.       

WTI TECHS: (X4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play       

• RES 4: $77.45 - High Aug 12 and key resistance 
• RES 3: $76.40 - High Aug 26 
• RES 2: $72.58 - 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: $71.05 - Intraday high    
• PRICE: $70.61 @ 11:17 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: $64.61 - Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger    
• SUP 2: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number 
• SUP 4: $57.069 - 2.2368 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

WTI futures are trading higher today. The recovery since Sep 9, appears - for now - to be a correction. Recent weakness reinforced a bearish condition and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the downtrend would open $64.61 next, a Fibonacci projection point. The 20-day EMA, at $70.09, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open $72.58, the 50-day EMA.         

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High      

• RES 4: $2660.9 - 2.382 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing   
• RES 3: $2642.7 - 2.236 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
• RES 2: $2613.3.0 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
• RES 1: $2600.2 - High Sep 18                 
• PRICE: $2576.4 @ 07:20 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: 2547.0 - Low Sep 18 
• SUP 2: $2524.3/2511.1 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 12  
• SUP 3: $2474.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep  4 and a key support

A bullish structure in Gold remains intact and the metal traded, once again, to a fresh all-time high, yesterday. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked the end of the recent period of consolidation - a pause in the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2613.3 next. Firm support lies at $2542.3, the 20-day EMA.         

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook      

• RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing       
• RES 3: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $31.754 - High Jul 11 
• RES 1: $31.299 - Intraday high                   
• PRICE: $31.174 @ 11:29 BST Sep 19
• SUP 1: $29.118 - 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: $27.686/26.451 - Low Sep 6 / Low Aug 8
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver is holding on to its recent gains. The recent rally undermines a bearish theme and note that key short-term resistance at $30.192, the Aug 26 high, has been cleared. The break strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for an extension towards $31.754, Jul 11 high. Key short-term support has been defined at $27.686, the Sep 6 low. A breach of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.