MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Bull Cycle Extends

Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Resumes Its Uptrend       

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis is trading higher again, today. Last week’s gains highlight a bullish reversal and the end of the Sep 3 - 6 corrective cycle. The contract is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and resistance at 5730.50, the Sep 3 high, has been breached. This exposes 5785.00, the Jul 16 high and a bull trigger. Initial support lies at 5632.48, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded higher today as the contract extends the recovery that started Sep 10. It is still possible that the latest move higher is a correction. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position and this highlights a downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the key short-term support at 4729.00, the Sep 10 low. The next resistance to watch is 4934.52, 76.4% retracement of Sep 3 - 10 bear leg. A break would strengthen a bullish theme and expose 4998.00, the Sep 3 high.                                                                                                          
• In FX, the short-term in EURUSD remains bullish. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1072, has been pierced but remains intact for now. A continuation higher would open 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a break of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This week’s gains in GBPUSD have resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. The break of this level confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting a clear uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3328, 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg. Initial firm support is 1.3111, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY is trading above its most recent low, however, short-term gains are considered corrective. Bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has once again traded to a fresh cycle low this week. Sights are on 139.00 next, 1.382 projection of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing. Firm resistance is 143.66, 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, but remains intact for now.         
• On the commodity front, a bullish structure in Gold remains intact and the metal traded, once again, to a fresh all-time high, yesterday. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked the end of the recent period of consolidation - a pause in the uptrend. The focus is on $2613.3 next, a 2.00 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Firm support lies at $2542.3, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, the move higher since Sep 9 in WTI futures are trading higher today. The recovery since Sep 9, appears - for now - to be a correction. Recent weakness reinforced a bearish condition and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the downtrend would open $63.89 next, a 1.618 projection of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing. The 20-day EMA, at $70.09, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open $72.58, the 50-day EMA. 
• In the FI space, Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The move down has resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA, at 134.29. This signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 133.55. Clearance of this average would undermine a bullish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. A bull cycle in Gilt futures is still in play, however, the pullback from Tuesday’s peak highlights the start of a correction. This is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The next support to watch is 100.03, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 101.54, the Sep 17 high.

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