MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Bull Cycle Remains In Play

Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded higher Tuesday, reinforcing the current bull cycle, confirming once again an extension of the reversal that started Aug 5. Price has cleared resistance at 2600.75, the Aug 1 high and this signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Support to watch lies at 5476.18, the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded higher this week and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4867.59. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 4951.00 next, the Jul 31 high. Initial support is at 4804.20, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD remains bullish and this week’s appreciation reinforces the current set-up. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 1.1139 next, the Dec 29 ‘23 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would open 1.1168, the 1.382 projection of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing. Key short-term support is seen at 1.0955, the 20-day EMA. GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and this resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3044, the Jul 17 high and a bull trigger. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and resume the uptrend that started Apr 22. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3114, the 2.00 projection of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2858, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY remains below the Aug 15 high, and a firm resistance at the 20-day EMA is intact. The trend structure is bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Resistance to watch is 149.06, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger correction.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Tuesday, delivering another all-time cycle high. The recent breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a 1.50 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at $2446.5, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, WTI futures have been unable to hold on to recent gains and the contract traded lower again Tuesday. The latest move down undermines a recent bullish theme and this has exposed key support at $71.67, the Aug 5 low and the bear trigger. A break would resume the downtrend that started Apr 12. Initial resistance to watch is $75.60, the 20-day EMA.
• In the FI space, a bullish trend condition in Bund futures remains intact and recent gains reinforce this theme. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 136.45, 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont). The recent pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 134.02, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. Note that the move lower has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. A resumption of bullish price action would signal scope for a climb towards 101.78, the 2.236 projection of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing. Initial key support lies at 99.54, the 20-day EMA. First resistance is at 100.80, the Aug 14 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
• RES 3: 1.1201 1.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1168 1.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1139 High Dec 29 2023 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1105 @ 16:20 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 1.1014/0955 Low Aug 19 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0886 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bullish and this week’s appreciation reinforces the current set-up. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 1.1139 next, the Dec 29 ‘23 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would further strengthen the bullish condition. This would open 1.1168, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support is seen at 1.0955, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pierces The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.3193 2.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3138 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low
• RES 2: 1.3114 2.00 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3044/52 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger / High Aug 20
• PRICE: 1.3028 @ 06:14 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 1.2975/2858 Low Jul 20 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2810/2665 50-day EMA / Low Aug 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2584 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle

GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and this resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3044, the Jul 17 high and a bull trigger. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 22. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3114, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2858, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28
• RES 3: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8593/8625 High Aug 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8536 @ 06:32 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 0.8508 Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: 0.8496 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8454 Low Aug 2
• SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP is trading closer to its recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play. The latest retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A firm support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8498. A resumption of gains would open 0.8593, the Aug 14 high, ahead of 0.8625, the Aug 8 high and a bull trigger. Note that MA studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. A break of the 50-day EMA would concern bulls.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 155.22 High Jul 30
• RES 3: 152.48 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.89 High Aug 1
• RES 1: 149.06 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 145.59 @ 06:45 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 144.29 Low Aug 7
• SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28

USDJPY remains below the Aug 15 high and a firm resistance at the 20-day EMA is intact. The trend structure is bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Resistance to watch is 149.06, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
• RES 3: 165.94 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 164.12 200 DMA
• RES 1: 163.89 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 162.18 @ 07:10 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12
• SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support

EURJPY is trading just below its recent highs. The outlook remains bearish, and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Note that the latest move higher has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced resistance at 163.27, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 165.94. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6839 High Jan 2
• RES 2: 0.6799 High Jul 11 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6764 High Jul 16
• PRICE: 0.6744 @ 07:53 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 0.6625 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher has cancelled a recent bearish theme. Price has cleared 0.6693, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. The clear break of this price point also strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 0.6799, the Jul 11 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6571, the Aug 15 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Leg Extension

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
• RES 3: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3791 High Aug 7
• RES 1: 1.3726 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3620@ 07:58 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 1.3605 Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.3589 Low Jul 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD traded lower again Tuesday and this marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme and has resulted in the break of a number of support points, exposing the next key level at 1.3589, the Jul 11 low. Clearance of this support would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3726, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 3: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 136.28 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 135.17/135.59 High Aug 14 / 6
• PRICE: 134.63 @ 05:32 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 134.02 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 133.12 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.08 Low Jul 26
• SUP 4: 131.62 Low Jul 22 and a key support

A bullish trend condition in Bund futures remains intact and recent gains reinforce this theme. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. A resumption of the trend would open 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The recent pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 134.02, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 2: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 1: 118.300/119.090 High Aug 14 / 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 117.890 @ 05:41 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 117.661 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 117.172/116.700 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 116.320 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11

The uptrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high still appears to be a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of a key resistance at 117.160, Jun 14 high. This break, together with the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. First resistance to watch is 118.300, the Aug 14 high. Initial firm support is at 117.661, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 1: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 106.240 @ 06:00 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 106.163 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.970/820 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 105.630/495 Low Jul 22 / 11
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support

Schatz futures remain in consolidation mode. An uptrend is intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. For now, the contract continues to trade above a firm support at 106.163, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would be seen as an early bearish threat. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 105.970. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal the end of the corrective cycle and open 106.916, a Fibonacci projection.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 102.15 2.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 101.78 2.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 100.80/101.46 High Aug 14 / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 99.94 @ Close Aug 20
• SUP 1: 99.54 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 98.86/98.34.46 50-day EMA / Low Jul 29
• SUP 3: 97.46 Low Jul 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 96.96 Low Jul 3

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. Note that the move lower has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. A resumption of bullish price action would signal scope for a climb towards 101.78, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial key support lies at 99.54, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 1: 120.00 Psychological round number
• PRICE: 119.53 @ Close Aug 20
• SUP 1: 118.79/118.10 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 117.36 Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8
• SUP 4: 114.72 Low Jul 2

The medium-term trend in BTP futures remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 119.57, the Aug 2 high, has been breached and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break opens the 120.00 handle next. Price remains above initial firm support at 118.86, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 118.10. A clear breach of both EMAs would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 116-00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 115-30+ 2.764 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 115-17 2.618 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 114-03/115-03+ High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 113-17+ @ 16:48 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: 112-20+ 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 111-19+ 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 110-18+ Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 110-07 Low Jul 9

Treasuries sit firmer through the London close. A bullish theme remains intact and support remains in place. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight bullish sentiment. The recent breach of 111-01, the Jun 14 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Scope is seen for 115-17, a Fibonacci projection. The recent move down is considered corrective. Initial support to watch is 112-20+, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Pierces The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12
• RES 3: 4997.00 High Jul 17
• RES 2: 4951.00 High Jul 31 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 4914.00 High Aug 20
• PRICE: 4883.00 @ 06:21 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 4804.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont)

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4867.59. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 4951.00 next, the Jul 31 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4494.00, the Aug 5 low.

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
• RES 1: 5664.00 High Jul 18
• PRICE: 5625.50 @ 07:18 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: 5476.18 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5319.50 Low Aug 9
• SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8
• SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger

S&P E-Minis traded higher Tuesday, reinforcing the current bull cycle and confirms once again an extension of the reversal that started Aug 5. Price has cleared resistance at 2600.75, the Aug 1 high and this signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend. On the downside, support to watch lies at 5476.18, the 50-day EMA.COMMODITIES

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Move Lower Exposes Key Support

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $84.22 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low
• RES 1: $79.70/82.40 - 20-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: $77.04 @ 07:01 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: $75.05 - Low Aug 5 and a key support
• SUP 2: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

Brent futures continue to trade below their recent highs and the contract maintains a softer tone following the recent reversal lower. The extent of the pullback undermines a recent bullish theme and instead, the move signals scope for a test of key support at $75.05, the Aug 5 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg that started Apr 12. Initial firm resistance is seen at $79.70, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (U4) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $83.58 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $82.27 - High Jul 18
• RES 1: $75.60/80.16 - 20-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: $73.00 @ 07:13 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: $71.67 - Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $70.73 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $67.37 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

WTI futures have been unable to hold on to recent gains and the contract traded lower again Tuesday. The latest move down undermines a recent bullish theme and this has exposed key support at $71.67, the Aug 5 low and the bear trigger. A break would resume the downtrend that started Apr 12. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $75.60, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $80.16, the Aug 12 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
• RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
• RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
• PRICE: $2513.8 @ 07:16 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: $2446.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2404.9/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support

Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Tuesday, delivering another all-time cycle high. The recent breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2446.5, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Breaches Resistance

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $29.972 - High Aug 20
• PRICE: $29.536 @ 08:08 BST Aug 21
• SUP 1: $27.484/26.451- Low Aug 15 / 8
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28

A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and gains are - for now - considered corrective. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low and this exposed at key support at $26.018, May 2 low. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the 50-day EMA has been cleared and is a concern for bears. The next resistance to watch is $29.728, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear breach would strengthen a bullish threat.