MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Dip Seen as Corrective

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Dip Seen as Corrective

• S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and in the process cleared recent highs to confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle that started Dec 22. A key resistance and a bull trigger at 4180.00, the Dec 13 high, has been pierced. The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend needle points north. The contract has breached resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and paves the way for gains towards 4269.50, a Fibonacci projection.
• GBPUSD traded lower Thursday as price extends the gap with recent highs. The move lower is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.2146, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and allow for a deeper corrective pullback. USDJPY drifted lower again Thursday. The trend outlook is bearish and key short-term resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high, remains intact. Initial resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 130.25. A continuation lower and a break of 127.23, the Jan 16 low and bear trigger. The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The print above resistance at 0.7142, Jan 26 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDCAD bearish trend conditions remain intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. A continuation would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger.
• Trend conditions in Gold are bullish and Thursday’s move lower is considered corrective. This week’s print above 1949.20, the Jan 26 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A sharp sell-off on Wednesday and weakness Thursday in WTI futures has reinforced current bearish conditions. The contract has breached support at $78.45 this week, the Jan 19 low.
• Bund futures rallied sharply higher Thursday and cleared initial resistance at 137.90, the 50-day EMA. The break signals potential for stronger near-term gains and note that price has also breached resistance at 139.36, the Jan 25 high. Gilt futures traded sharply higher Thursday and in the process cleared 106.00 and more importantly breached 107.06, the Nov 24 and a key resistance. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31
• RES 3: 1.1121 1.382 proj of the Oct 13 -27 rally from the Jan 6 low
• RES 2: 1.1076 High Apr 1, 2022
• RES 1: 1.1054 1.236 proj of the Oct 13 -27 rally from the Jan 6 low
• PRICE: 1.0897 @ 05:33 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 1.0852 Low Feb 1
• SUP 2: 1.0802 Low Jan 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.0659 50-day EMA

EURUSD traded higher Thursday before fading into the close. Nonetheless, the broad trend direction remains up for now - resistance at 1.0929, the Jan 26 high, has been cleared. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and clears the way for a climb towards 1.1054, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Key short-term support lies at 1.0802, the Jan 31 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.2558 High Jub 9, 2022
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2401/2448 High Feb 2 / High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2212 @ 05:56 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 1.2203 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2146 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2089 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.2000 Round number support

GBPUSD traded lower Thursday as price extends the gap with recent highs. The move lower is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.2146, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and allow for a deeper corrective pullback. For now, the 4-month uptrend is intact - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this reflects bullish market sentiment. The bull trigger is 1.2448, the Jan 23 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8956 High Feb 2
• PRICE: 0.8917 @ 06:34 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 0.8875/0.8852 Low Feb 2 / High Jan 25
• SUP 2: 0.8814 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8775 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a reversal trigger

EURGBP trend conditions are bullish. The cross has cleared resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high and a bull trigger. The clear breach of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started early December last year and has opened 0.8992, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. First key support to watch lies at 0.8814, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 134.77 High Jan 6
• RES 3: 133.03 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
• RES 1: 130.25/131.58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 128.60 @ 06:38 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 128.09/127.23 Low Feb 2 / Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing

USDJPY drifted lower again Thursday. The trend outlook is bearish and key short-term resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high, remains intact. Initial resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 130.25. A continuation lower and a break of 127.23, the Jan 16 low and bear trigger, would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, clearance of 131.58 would be a positive development and signal a short-term reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Pulls Back From Recent Highs

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 142.86 High Jan 11 and key resistance
• RES 1: 141.02/142.30 20-day EMA / High Jan 25
• PRICE: 140.10 @ 07:02 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 139.06/137.92 Low Jan 20 / Low Jan 19
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

EURJPY traded lower Thursday. The price action belies a recent bull flag formation and raises the possibility of a near-term test at the Jan 19 low at 137.92. More broadly, however, the trend remains up. A reversal higher and a break of 142.30, the Jan 25 high, would be a positive development and expose key resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger bullish reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7158 High Feb 2
• PRICE: 0.7071 @ 07:21 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 0.6999/6984 20-day EMA / Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: 0.6872 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6873 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6722 Low Jan 6

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The print above resistance at 0.7142, Jan 26 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 0.7172 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support is at 0.6984, the Jan 31 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3472/3521 High Jan 31 / 19 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3339 @ 07:25 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 1.3262 Low Feb 2
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD bearish trend conditions remain intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. A continuation would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521, the Jan 19 high, to signal a reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Strong Rally

• RES 4: 142.59 0.764 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 139.86 High Feb 2
• PRICE: 139.40 @ 04:57 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 137.90/136.38 50-day EMA / Low Jan 30
• SUP 2: 136.04 Low Jan 10
• SUP 3: 135.71 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 4: 135.08 Low Jan 4

Bund futures rallied sharply higher Thursday and cleared initial resistance at 137.90, the 50-day EMA. The break signals potential for stronger near-term gains and note that price has also breached resistance at 139.36, the Jan 25 high. A continuation higher would expose 140.73, the Jan 19 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would strengthen a bullish case. Key support and bear trigger has been defined at 136.38, the Jan 30 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Rally Exposes Key Resistance

• RES 4: 119.230 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 2: 118.880 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.670 High Feb 2
• PRICE: 118.370 @ 05:06 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 117.810/117.020 50-day EMA / Low Jan 30 and a key support
• SUP 2: 116.878 61.8% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 3: 116.730 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 116.405 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run

Bobl futures rallied sharply higher Thursday to clear resistance at the 50-day EMA and 118.320, the Jan 25 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the next key hurdle for bulls at 118.880, the Jan 19 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, key support has been defined at 117.020, the Jan 30 low. A break of this level would reinstate a recent bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 106.517 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.365 Low Dec 13
• RES 2: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 106.155 High Jan 18 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.980 @ 05:25 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 105.848 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.640 Low Feb 1 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.548 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 18 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 105.480 Low Jan 3

Schatz futures traded sharply higher Friday and in the process cleared a number of short-term resistance points. A continuation higher would expose the key resistance at 106.115, the Jan 18 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for a climb towards 106.296, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 105.640, the Feb 1 low.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Trades Above Recent Highs

• RES 4: 109.28 2.382 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 108.96 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 108.44 2.00 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: 108.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 107.59 @ Close Feb 2
• SUP 1: 105.99 High Jan 25 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 105.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 3: 104.04 Low Jan 30 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 103.21 Low Jan 17

Gilt futures traded sharply higher Thursday and in the process cleared 106.00 and more importantly breached 107.06, the Nov 24 and a key resistance. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on the 108.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 104.04, the Jan 30 low. A break of this level would highlight a short-term top.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Approaching The Key Resistance Zone

• RES 4: 121.26 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.57/96 High Jan 25 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
• RES 1: 118.18 High Jan 27
• PRICE: 118.11 @ Close Feb 2
• SUP 1: 115.03/113.47 High Jan 30 / Low Jan 30 and key support
• SUP 2: 112.26 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally

BTP futures traded sharply higher Thursday and the contract breached resistance at 116.94, the Jan 25 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of firm resistance at 118.56, the Jan 19 high and 118.96, the Dec 7 high. A break of this zone would strengthen bullish conditions and confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Key short-term support lies at 113.47, the Jan 30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Northbound Despite An Overbought Condition

• RES 4: 4303.20 2.382 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 3: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 2: 4230.50 High Feb 10, 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4258.00 High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4244.00 @ 05:48 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 4127.30/4097.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4006.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3890.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger

The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend needle points north. The contract has breached resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and paves the way for gains towards 4269.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend remains overbought. A pullback, if seen, would represent a healthy correction. A break of 4097.00, the Jan 19 low, would signal the start of a short-term bear cycle.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4361.00 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4250.00 High Aug 26, 2022
• RES 1: 4208.50 High Feb 2
• PRICE: 4167.75 @ 06:44 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 4007.50/3969.70 Low Jan 31 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3901.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 3788.50 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis traded higher Wednesday and in the process cleared recent highs to confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle that started Dec 22. A key resistance and a bull trigger at 4180.00, the Dec 13 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of a broader uptrend and open 4250.00, the Aug 26 2022 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 4007.50, the Jan 31 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J3) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: $94.80 - High Nov 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $92.64 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $90.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 bear leg
• RES 1: $86.21/89.00 - High Feb 1 / High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $82.15 @ 06:56 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: $80.42 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 5 - 23 rally
• SUP 2: $77.77 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $75.89 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $73.48 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures traded sharply lower Wednesday and again Thursday to reinforce current bearish conditions. The contract has breached both the 20-day and 50-EMA points. The latest move lower undermines the recent bull theme and a continuation lower would open $80.42, a Fibonacci retracement and potentially expose $77.77, the Jan 5 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at $89.00, the Jan 23 high.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $87.00 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 2: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $80.49/82.66 - High Jan 30 / High Jan 18
• PRICE: $75.70 @ 07:01 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: $74.97/72.74 - Low Feb 2 / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.44 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

A sharp sell-off on Wednesday and weakness Thursday in WTI futures has reinforced current bearish conditions. The contract has breached support at $78.45 this week, the Jan 19 low. The move lower undermines the recent bull theme and a continuation would signal potential for an extension to $72.74, the Jan 5 low. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at $82.66, Jan 18 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $2000.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 2: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 1: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• PRICE: $1917.4 @ 07:17 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: $1907.4/1900.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Jan 31
• SUP 2: $1867.2 - Low Jan 11
• SUP 3: $1852.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support

Trend conditions in Gold are bullish and Thursday’s move lower is considered corrective. This week’s print above 1949.20, the Jan 26 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $1963.0, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at $1907.40, the 20-day EMA and $1900.9, the Jan 31 low. A break of this zone would signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Broader Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.637 - High Feb 2
• PRICE: $23.452 @ 07:55 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: $23.113 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

Silver failed to hold on to yesterday’s high and remains inside its range. The trend direction is up with moving average studies in a bull mode position. Fresh trend highs in December reinforced the positive theme. Furthermore, the move higher has maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.