MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Remains in a Clear Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Remains in a Clear Downtrend

• A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and the contract traded lower Wednesday, extending the current downleg. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low. This breach reinforced bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower. This week’s extension also reinforces current conditions. Key support at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low, has been breached.
• GBPUSD remains in a clear downtrend and the pair is trading just above this week’s lows. The extension lower this week reinforces bearish conditions and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and the pair traded to a fresh cycle high Wednesday. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. The pair traded lower Wednesday and has confirmed a clear break of former support at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low. This marks a resumption of the downtrend that started on Jul 13.
• Gold sold off sharply yesterday, reinforcing bearish conditions. This week’s move lower has resulted in a break of support at $1901.10 and this has been followed by a move through $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s recovery has confirmed a resumption of the trend - resistance at $92.43, Sep 19 high, has been cleared. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Bund futures traded lower yesterday, extending the current bear cycle and the outlook remains bearish. The contract breached support last week at 129.72, the Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger. The break reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. Gilt futures have traded lower this week and the contract yesterday pierced support at 96.49, the Sep 18 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a move towards 94.05, the Sep 11 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.0789 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.0737 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 1.0685 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0574 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 1.0504 @ 05:59 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 1.0484 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 1.0421 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0291 Low Nov 30 2022

The EURUSD trend condition remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low on Wednesday, extending the current bearish run. The move lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies are in a bear mode position. Sights are on 1.0484 next, the Jan 6 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0685, the 20-day EMA. A Break would signal the start of a possible correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.2548 High Nov 11
• RES 3: 1.2534 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2387/2425 20-day EMA / High Sep 19
• RES 1: 1.2265 High Sep 25
• PRICE: 1.2141 @ 06:12 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 1.2111 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 1.2075 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.2028 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD remains in a clear downtrend and the pair is trading just above this week’s lows. The extension lower this week reinforces bearish conditions and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, The focus is on 1.2075, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2387, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8736 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8706 High Sep 26
• PRICE: 0.8652 @ 06:26 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 0.8627 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8609/8569 50-day EMA / Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 06

A short-term bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and yesterday’s move lower is considered corrective - for now. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8611, the Aug 30 high, and a move above 0.8672, trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high. A clear break of the trendline would strengthen bullish conditions. Initial firm support lies at 0.8627, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The Psychological 150.00 Handle

• RES 4: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 149.71 High Oct 24 2022 and high Sep 27
• PRICE: 149.35 @ 06:41 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 147.67/147.32 20-day EMA / Low Sep 21
• SUP 2: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 3: 145.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1 and key support

The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and the pair traded to a fresh cycle high Wednesday. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. 149.71, the Oct 24 2022 high, has been tested and attention is on the psychological 150.00 handle. A break of this barrier would reinforce bullish conditions. On the downside, firm trend support lies at 145.91, the Sep 11 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.65/159.76 High Sep 13 / High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 156.94 @ 06:57 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 156.59 Low Sep 11 and a key support
• SUP 2: 156.35 Low Aug 8
• SUP 3: 155.54 Low Aug 3
• SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally

EURJPY is trading lower but remains inside its range. The cross has again traded below the 50-day EMA - at 157.17. A clear breach of it would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal that would expose 155.54, the Aug 3 low. The bull trigger is unchanged at 159.76, Aug 30 high where a break would resume the uptrend and open 160.66, a Fibonacci projection. First resistance is 158.65, the Sep 13 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Gives Way

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6427/6489 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.6368 @ 07:55 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 0.6409 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. The pair traded lower Wednesday and has confirmed a clear break of former support at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low. This marks a resumption of the downtrend that started on Jul 13 and the move lower opens 0.6287 next, a Fibonacci projection point. On the upside, key short-term trend resistance is unchanged at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3706 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3593/95 High Sep 12 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3543 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 1.3498 @ 07:57 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 1.3424/3381 Low Sep 22 / 19
• SUP 2: 1.3323 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Sep 7 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
• SUP 4: 1.3235 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Sep 7 bull leg

USDCAD remains in a corrective cycle. The short-term outlook remains bearish for now - last week’s move down resulted in a break of 1.3490, the Sep 1 low and this was followed by a move below the 50-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would open 1.3323 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Next resistance to watch is 1.3593, the Sep 12 high. Key resistance is at 1.3695, the Sep 7 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 132.91 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1
• RES 2: 131.82 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 129.30/130.19 High Sep 26 / 22 and key resistance
• PRICE: 128.29 @ 05:24 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 128.06 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 127.92 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 3: 127.50 1.50 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 127.07 1.618 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures traded lower yesterday, extending the current bear cycle and the outlook remains bearish. The contract breached support last week at 129.72, the Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger. The break reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position too. Sights are on 1.2791 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is at 130.19, the Sep 22 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Continues To Point South

• RES 4: 116.890 High Sep 8 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 116.740 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 116.188 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.860/116.150 High Sep 27 / 22
• PRICE: 115.410 @ 05:32 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 115.310 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 115.223 1.764 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.020 1.764 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.817 2.00 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract traded lower yesterday, extending the bear cycle. Last week’s break below 116.00, the Aug 15 low and key support, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 115.223 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at 116.150, the Sep 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a possible short-term base.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 105.240 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 105.170 High Sep 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.059 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.010 Low Sep 13
• PRICE: 104.895 @ 05:43 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 104.765 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.645 Low Jul 12 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of support at 105.130, the Sep 7 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has maintained the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 104.720, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 105.170, the Sep 14 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Testing Support

• RES 4: 97.57 High Jul 24(cont)
• RES 3: 97.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 96.05/96.71 High Sep 25 / 20
• RES 1: 95.12 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 94.90 @ Close Sep 27
• SUP 1: 94.05 Low Sep 11
• SUP 2: 93.36 Low Sep 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 92.56 Low Aug 23

Gilt futures have traded lower this week and the contract yesterday pierced support at 96.49, the Sep 18 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a move towards 94.05, the Sep 11 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 96.71, the Sep 20 high, where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Aug 17.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Downtrend Extends

• RES 4: 116.86 High Jul 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 115.56 High Aug 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 113.84 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 112.18/112.52 20-day EMA / High Sep 20 and key resistance
• PRICE: 109.68 @ Close Sep 27
• SUP 1: 109.18 4.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 108.36 Low Dec 30 2022 (cont)
• SUP 3: 108.13 Low Sep 28 ‘22 (cont) and major support
• SUP 4: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

The Sep 15 sharp sell-off in BTP futures cancelled a recent bullish threat and the continuation lower this week has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The 110.00 handle has been breached and the break has opened 109.18, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 112.52, the Sep 20 high. A break would highlight a possible base. Initial firm resistance is at 112.18, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and key resistance
• RES 2: 4257.00/4359.00 20-day EMA / High Sep 15
• RES 1: 4210.00 Low Sep 8
• PRICE: 4155.00 @ 05:59 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 4139.00 Low Sep 26
• SUP 2: 4109.90 1.236 proj of the Aug 10 - 18 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: 4095.00 Low Mar 28 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower. This week’s extension also reinforces current conditions. Key support at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low, has been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and paves the way for a move towards 4109.90, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4359.00, the Sep 15 high. A break would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: 4597.50 High Sep 1 and a near-term bull trigger
• RES 3: 4566.00 High Sep 15
• RES 2: 4478.37 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4399.00 High Sep 22
• PRICE: 4321.75 @ 06:53 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 4277.00 Low Sep 27
• SUP 2: 4259.00 Low May 31
• SUP 3: 4242.15 1.236 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4194.75 Low May 24

A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and the contract traded lower Wednesday, extending the current downleg. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low. This breach reinforced bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 4300.62, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is 4485.10, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X3) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: $102.73- 1.382 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $100.50 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $100.00 - Key psychological round number
• RES 1: $97.69 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $97.35@ 07:00 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $91.80 - Low Sep 26 and key support
• SUP 2: $87.70 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $81.61 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $77.84 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in Brent futures remains intact and this week’s recovery has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend - resistance at $95.96, the Sep 19 high, has been cleared. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards the psychological $100.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $91.80, the Sep 26 low.

WTI TECHS: (X3) Heading north

• RES 4: $100.00 - Psychological barrier
• RES 3: $99.42 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: $95.03 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $94.38 @ 07:19 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $88.19 - Low Sep 26
• SUP 2: $83.60 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $73.40 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s recovery has confirmed a resumption of the trend - resistance at $92.43, Sep 19 high, has been cleared. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment. Sights are on $97.08 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at $88.19, the Sep 2 low.

GOLD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: $1966.0 - High Aug 1
• RES 3: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1924.3 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1903.9 - High Sep 27
• PRICE: $1874.6@ 07:22 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 2: $1839.0 - 50.0 retracement of the Sep 28 ‘22 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 3: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: $1804.9- Low Feb 28 and a key resistance

Gold sold off sharply yesterday, reinforcing bearish conditions. This week’s move lower has resulted in a break of support at $1901.10 and this has been followed by a move through $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started off the early May high. Attention turns to $1865.8, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial resistance is at yesterday’s high of $1903.9.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.014/149 - High Aug 30 / High Jul 27
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22
• PRICE: $22.492 @ 08:02 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: $22.301 - Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver maintains a softer tone and the pullback from last week’s high signals the end of the recent corrective recovery between Sep 14 - 22. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards $22.301, the Sep 14 low, and a breach of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. This would open $22.111, the Jun 23 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $23.774, the Sep 22 high.