MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Futures Extend Bear Cycle
Price Signal Summary – Gilt Futures Extend Bear Cycle
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and signals remain bullish. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the recovery from the Jun 14 low appears to be an early reversal of the May 16 - Jun 14 correction. Attention is on 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement.
- EURUSD traded higher Monday before pulling back from the day high. The trend outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective - for now. MA studies remain in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a downtrend. EURGBP has traded above last week’s high of 0.8478 (Jun 24) and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. Recent gains signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and sights are on resistance at 0.8503, the 50-day EMA. USDCAD traded higher Monday and remains above its most recent lows. Price has recently attempted a breach of support around the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3679. A clear break of this average would threaten a bullish theme and expose support at 1.3590.
- A bear threat in Gold remains present and the yellow metal continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2318.9. A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme.
- Bund futures traded lower last week and started this week’s session on a bearish note. The move lower Monday undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Monday, confirming an extension of the latest bear cycle. The move down does undermine a recent bullish theme and the sell-off signals scope for a continuation near-term.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.0852 High High Jun 12
- RES 2: 1.0791/0820 50.0% and 61.8% of the Jun 4 - 26 downleg
- RES 1: 1.0771/76 50-day EMA / Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.0729 @ 05:54 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 1.0711/0666 Low Jun 1 / 26 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0650 Low May 1
- SUP 3: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2
EURUSD traded higher Monday before pulling back from the day high. The trend outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective - for now. MA studies remain in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a downtrend. Resistance to watch is 1.0771, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear would threaten the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 1.0820, 61.8% of the Jun 4 - 26 downleg. The bear trigger is 1.0666, Jun 26 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.2740/2860 High Jun 19 / 12 And the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2632 @ 06:08 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 1.2613 Low June 27
- SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
- SUP 3: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support
A bearish threat in GBPUSD remains present and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of a key support at 1.2669, the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper correction towards 1.2584 next, the May 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 1.2860, the Jun 12 high, would resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2740, the Jun 19 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8568 High May 20
- RES 3: 0.8550 61.8% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8546 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.8503 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8492 @ 06:36 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 0.8431 Low Jun 25
- SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
- SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
EURGBP has traded above last week’s high of 0.8478 (Jun 24) and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. Recent gains signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and sights are on resistance at 0.8503, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bearish theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would open 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger.
USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle Highs
- RES 4: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
- RES 3: 163.00 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 161.74 Intraday high
- PRICE: 161.71 @ 06:57 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 159.62/158.82 Low Jun 26 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 157.22 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low
- SUP 3: 156.85 /154.55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4
- SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16
The trend in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair traded higher Monday. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 162.21, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key support to watch is unchanged at the EMA. The average lies at 158.82.
EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 174.77 1.382 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 3: 174.66 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 173.98 1.236 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 173.67 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 173.54 @ 07:21 BST Jul 02
- SUP 1: 171.45 Low Jun 28
- SUP 2: 170.64 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 169.23/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14
- SUP 4: 167.33 Low May 16
The EURJPY trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross started this week’s session on a bullish note, trading to a fresh cycle high. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of key resistance and the bull trigger at 171.56, the Apr 29 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The move higher opens 173.98, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 170.64, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading In A Range
- RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6643 @ 08:03 BST Jul 02
- SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
- SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
- SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode and continues to trade inside a range. Resistance is at 0.6714, the May 16 high, and support lies at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers. A break of 0.6714, would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of 0.6576 would expose 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. Looking at MA studies, they are in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend.
USDCAD TECHS: Support Holds For Now
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3755/3792 Intraday high / High Jun 11
- PRICE: 1.3743 @ 08:08 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 1.3626/3590 Low Jun 25 / Low May 16 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD traded higher Monday and remains above its most recent lows. Price has recently attempted a breach of support around the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3679. A clear break of this average would threaten a bullish theme and expose support at 1.3590, the May 16 low. The medium-term trend outlook is bullish and a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Impulsive Sell-Off
- RES 4: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 132.80 High Jun 25
- RES 2: 132.24 High Jun 28
- RES 1: 131.74 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 130.57 @ 05:35 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 130.28 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally
- SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jun 10
- SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 129.00 Round number support
Bund futures traded lower last week and started this week’s session on a bearish note. The move lower Monday undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would further strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 132.24, the Jun 28 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24
- RES 3: 1116.690 High Jun 28
- RES 1: 116.341 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 115.920 @ 05:42 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 115.810 Low Jul 1
- SUP 2: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally
- SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support
Bobl futures started this week on a bearish note and traded sharply lower Monday. The move down has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermines the recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a deeper pullback, opening 115.556, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Breaches Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 105.895 High Jun 21
- RES 1: 105.620/105.780 20-day EMA / High Jun 28
- PRICE: 105.525 @ 05:39 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 105.475 Low Jul 1
- SUP 2: 105.440 61.8% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 105.375 Low Jun 13
- SUP 4: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
Schatz futures traded lower Monday and the contract breached support around the 20-day EMA, at 105.620. This undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 105.440, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a developing bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 105.780, the Jun 28 high. A break would be bullish.
GILT TECHS: (U4) Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 2: 98.24/99.25 High Jun 28 / 1.236 proj May 29-Jun 4-10 swing
- RES 1: 97.43 High Jul 1
- PRICE: 96.67 @ Close Jul 1
- SUP 1:97.28 50.0% retracement of the May 29 -
- SUP 2: 96.84 Low Jun 12
- SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 and a key support
- SUP 4: 95.58 Low May 31
Gilt futures traded sharply lower Monday, confirming an extension of the latest bear cycle. The move down does undermine a recent bullish theme and the sell-off signals scope for a continuation near-term. This has opened 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement, where a break would further strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 98.24, Friday’s high.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
- RES 1: 116.16/117.09 20-day EMA / High Jun 21
- PRICE: 115.06 @ Close Jul 1
- SUP 1: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support
- SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)
BTP futures traded lower last week and the contract has started this week on a soft note. The bear reversal from the Jun 5 high resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 114.35, the Jun 11 low, where a breach would strengthen a bearish theme. Key resistance is 117.62, Jun 5 high. A break would be bullish. Initial firm resistance is 117.09, the Jun 21 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 2: 5092.00 High Jun 12
- RES 1: 5039.84 61.8% retracement of May 16-Jun 14 sell-off
- PRICE: 4962.00 @ 06:25 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 4915.00/4860.00 Low Jun 28 / 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing
The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the recovery from the Jun 14 low appears to be an early reversal of the May 16 - Jun 14 correction. Attention is on 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would be a positive development. On the downside, a reversal lower would instead signal a resumption of the bearish corrective cycle that started May 16 and open 4846.00, the Apr 19 low and a key support.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Bull Flag Formation
- RES 4: 5622.69 2.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5594.66 2.618 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: 5588.00 High Jun 20
- PRICE: 5523.50 @ 07:20 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 5488.93/5397.39 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
- SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
- SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and signals remain bullish. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that the recent pause in the trend appears to be flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Sights are on 5594.66, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 5488.93, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (U4) Continues To Appreciate
- RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $88.04 - High Apr 19
- PRICE: $86.89 @ 07:06 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: $83.02 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4
- SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high yesterday. This maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, signalling scope for a climb towards $89.32, the Apr 12 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would be seen as an important medium-term bullish development. On the downside, initial support to watch is $83.02, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (Q4) Northbound
- RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
- RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $85.27 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $83.64 - High Jul 1
- PRICE: $83.48 @ 07:16 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: $79.04 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
- SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been cleared. This opens $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $79.04, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $2387.8 - High Jun 7
- PRICE: $2330.0 @ 07:57 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
- SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
- SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
- SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
A bear threat in Gold remains present and the yellow metal continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2318.9. A clear break of this EMA would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and open $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would also strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is $2387.8, the Jun 7 high.
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Short-Term Structure
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: $30.853/32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger / High Jun 21
- PRICE: $29.375 @ 08:12 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: $28.573- Low Jun 26
- SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13
- SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
Support in Silver at $28.659, the Jun 13 low and bear trigger, has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open $27.971, the May 13 low. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. This highlights a medium-term uptrend and suggests that the bear leg since $32.518, the May 20 high, is likely a correction. First resistance to watch is $30.853, the Jun 21 high.