MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Trend Remains Bearish
Price Signal Summary – Gilt Trend Remains Bearish
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading just below its recent highs. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, the Nov 4 low. The latest rally resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high. A bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The sell-off confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30.
- GBPUSD traded sharply lower again Wednesday, extending the current downtrend. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at 1.2834, the Nov 6 low. The clear break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and the subsequent sell-off reinforces the bearish theme. The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair continues to climb. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 154.71, the Nov 07 high. A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. The 50-day EMA lies at 163.44. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 161.85, the Oct 17 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up.
- The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high, reinforces current conditions. The move down exposes $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Recent short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The 131.00 handle has been cleared. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 Oct 1 price swing.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Impulsive Bear Leg Extends
- RES 4: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 3: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 1.0761/88 Low Oct 23 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0683 Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.0553 @ 06:20 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 1.0535 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 2023
- SUP 3: 1.0484 1.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0448 Low Sep 3 2023 and a key support
EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend and the pair continues to depreciate, marking an extension of the current impulsive bear cycle. This confirms a resumption of the bear trend and, note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.0517 support, the Nov 1 ‘23 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.0788, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 2: 1.2934/3048 20-day EMA / High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.2834 Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.2692 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 1.2687 Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 1.2665 Low Aug 8 and key support
- SUP 3. 1.2636 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
GBPUSD traded sharply lower again Wednesday, extending the current downtrend. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at 1.2834, the Nov 6 low. The clear break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and the subsequent sell-off reinforces the bearish theme. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.2665, the Aug 8 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3048, the Nov 6 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle
- RES 4: 0.8523 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8369/0.8448 50-day EMA / High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.8341/46 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
- PRICE: 0.8312 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 0.8260 Low Nov 11
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
EURGBP recovered Tuesday. S/T gains are - for now - considered corrective. The cross has recently breached 0.8295, the Oct 18 low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 0.8250, the Apr 14 2022 low. Key short-term resistance is at 0.8448, the Oct 31 high. Note, that Tuesday's price pattern is a possible bullish engulfing candle - a reversal signal. A clear breach of the 20-day EMA, at 0.8341, would strengthen a reversal threat.
USDJPY TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 157.10 High Jul 23
- RES 2: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 156.14 Intraday high
- PRICE: 155.93 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 152.36 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 150.24 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.09 Low Oct 21
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair continues to climb. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 154.71, the Nov 07 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 156.67, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support is 152.36, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal the start of a corrective cycle.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 165.43/166.69 High Nov 8 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 164.37 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 163.44/21 50-day EMA / Low Nov 8
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. The 50-day EMA lies at 163.44. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 161.85, the Oct 17 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, a Fibonacci retracement point.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6663/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6609 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6473 @ 08:03 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 0.6460 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low NOv 10 2023
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair has traded lower this week. Support at 0.6513, the Nov 6 low, has been cleared and price is through 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. This signals scope for an extension towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6609, the 20-day EMA. The reversal trigger is at 0.6688, the Nov 7 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.4197 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4084 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4034 1.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4020 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3995 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 1.3873/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3774 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD traded higher again Wednesday as the pair extended the recovery from the Nov 6 low. The pair has topped the most recent trend peak of 1.3959, the Nov 1 / 6 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and has also resulted in a breach of 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high and a key medium-term resistance. Sights are on the 1.4034, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3873, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 133.07 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.43/74 20-day EMA / High Nov 12
- PRICE: 131.37 @ 05:58 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 130.58 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.48 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.08 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Recent short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, signalling potential for 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key resistance is at 132.43, the 20-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would be seen as an early bullish development.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 118.916 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.830 High Nov 12
- PRICE: 118.200 @ 06:15 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 117.910/680 Low Nov 7 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
A sharp sell-off in Bobl futures on Oct 30 highlighted a strong bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The sell-off opens 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. The latest recovery appears corrective. The 20-day EMA has been breached, however, the contract has pulled back from its latest high. The 50-day EMA is at 118.916 and marks the next key resistance.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Trendline Resistance
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.836/875 Trendline drawn off the Oct 1 high / High Nov 12
- PRICE: 106.720 @ 06:32 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 106.485/375 Low Nov 5 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.027 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Despite the current bull cycle in Schatz futures, a bearish trend condition remains intact. The trend is oversold and the latest move higher is allowing this condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 106.375, the Oct 31 low and the short-term bear trigger. The 50-day EMA has been breached, the next resistance to watch is 106.836, a trendline drawn from the Oct 1 high. It has been pierced, but remains intact.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 3: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- RES 2: 94.85 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 94.73 High Nov 1
- PRICE: 93.46 @ Close Nov 13
- SUP 1: 92.53 Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing. This signals scope for an extension towards 92.23, the 2.236 projection. The Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a possible base. Initial resistance is 94.73, Nov 1 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 121.53/122.62 High Oct 25 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 120.11/26 50-day EMA / High Nov 12
- PRICE: 119.66 @ Close Nov 13
- SUP 1: 119.00/117.88 Low Nov 8 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.70 61.8% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.34 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 116.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the contract maintains a bearish tone. Price traded lower last week strengthening a bearish threat. A resumption of the downtrend would refocus attention on 117.70, a Fibonacci retracement point. Resistance to watch is 120.11, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would cancel the bearish threat.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4873.00 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4747.00 @ 06:36 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 4706.00 Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
A bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The sell-off confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4662.12, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, Nov high, where a break would highlight a reversal.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 6053.25 High Nov 11
- PRICE: 6005.50 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 5904.02/5817.53 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading just below its recent highs. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, the Nov 4 low. The latest rally resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The 6000.0 psychological handle has been pierced. Sights are on 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 5927.25, the Oct 17 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.24 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $71.83 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Resistance in Brent futures remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. This week’s move lower reinforces a bear theme. An extension would expose support at $69.68, Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.88 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $67.95 @ 07:17 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: $66.72 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high, reinforces current conditions. The move down exposes $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance is $72.88, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $2678.4/2750.0 - 20-day EMA / High Nov 5
- RES 1: $2641.6 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $2552.9 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: $2547.0 - Low Sep18
- SUP 2: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: $2415.9 - 38.2% retracement of the Oct 6 ‘23 - Oct 31 bull leg
The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and the metal is trading lower again, today. The breach of the EMAs signals scope for a deeper retracement and sights are on $2547.0 next, the Sep 18 low. Firm resistance is seen at $2678.4, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Clears Trendline Support
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.935 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 29.879 @ 08:14 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: $29.680 - 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 is considered corrective - for now. However this corrective cycle remains in play and the metal continues to weaken. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and cleared $30.563, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low. This has exposed $29.680, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.935, the 20-day EMA.