MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Global Equities Fade Fast Off Highs

Price Signal Summary – Global Equities Fade Fast Off Highs

• The E-mini S&P contract continues to trade below 4634.50, the Jul 27 high. The pullback from this level highlights a possible short-term bearish signal. Price has found resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 13 low - the channel top is at 4654.42 today. Eurostoxx 50 futures have found resistance at 4513.00, Monday’s high, and the contract has traded sharply lower. For now, the pullback is considered corrective. However, the move lower has exposed support at the 50-day EMA.
• EURUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair continues to trade closer to last week’s lows. Support the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.0975, and a trendline support at 1.0979, remain exposed. The trendline is drawn from the May 31 low. USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded higher yesterday. Price is through 143.22, 76.4% of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg. The break strengthens current bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher. AUDUSD traded lower Tuesday and is again weaker today. A bearish theme remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The pair has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMA, reinforcing bearish conditions.
• Gold traded sharply lower last Thursday and a bearish threat remains present. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces this warning. The move down has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at $1951.7. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to appreciate. The break above $77.15 last week, the Jul 13 high, confirmed a resumption of the current bull cycle and this has resulted in a breach of key resistance at $81.44.
• Bund futures remain vulnerable and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this condition. Price has recently breached 132.23, 61.8% of the Jul 10 - 19 rally. This undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for an extension lower. Gilt futures traded lower last week and in the process breached support at 96.11, the Jul 21 low. This highlights a bearish threat and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this condition. Note that the 20-day EMA has also been breached - a bearish development.

EURUSD TECHS: Testing Key Support

• RES 4: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1150/1229 High Jul 27 / 20
• RES 1: 1.1040 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0983 @ 05:52 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 1.0979/44 Trendline support from May 31 low / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 1.0867 Low Jul 7
• SUP 3: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0804 Low Jun 15

EURUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair continues to trade closer to last week’s lows. Support the 50-day EMA which intersects at 1.0975, and a trendline support at 1.0979, remain exposed. The trendline is drawn from the May 31 low. A clear break of both levels would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.0867, the Jul 7 low. First key resistance is seen at 1.1150, the Jul 27 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Support Zone Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3272 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 8 low
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 1.2887/2996 High Jul 28 / 27 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2783 @ 06:08 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 1.2747/41 50-day EMA / Low Aug 01
• SUP 2: 1.2738 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 8 low
• SUP 3: 1.2674 Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: 1.2591 Low Jun 29

GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday highlighting an extension of the bear cycle. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 1.2747 (pierced). Note too that the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 8 low and a key support, lies at 1.2738 today. A clear break of the 1.2747-38 support zone would strengthen a bearish theme. This would pave the way for weakness towards 1.2674, the Jul 6 low. First key resistance is at 1.2996, the Jul 27 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
• RES 2: 0.8683/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
• RES 1: 0.8637 High Jul 25
• PRICE: 0.8602 @ 06:26 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 0.8544 Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 0.8518 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

Short-term gains in EURGBP are considered corrective. Recent bearish price action threatens the bull theme - the latest move lower resulted in a breach of both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of weakness would expose 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8637, the Jul 25 high. For bulls, clearance of the 100-dma of 0.8683 and congestion resistance at 0.8719, the May 23 high, would reinstate an uptrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 145.69 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 145.07 High Jun 30 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 144.20 High Jul 7
• RES 1: 143.55 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 142.86 @ 06:39 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 141.13/140.38 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 138.07 Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded higher yesterday. Price is through 143.22, 76.4% of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg. The break strengthens current bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher. The focus is on 144.20 next, the Jul 7 high, and key resistance at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 138.07, the Jul 28 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 158.05 High Jul 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 157.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 157.05@ 06:53 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 155.79 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 154.07 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle

EURJPY is holding on to its recent gains following the reversal from 151.42, the Jul 28 low. The latest rally cancels a recent bearish threat and signals the end of a corrective cycle. A continuation higher would expose 158.05, the Jul 21 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend that would open 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at 151.42.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 2: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 0.6630/6739 Intraday high / High Jul 31 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6569 @ 08:06 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 2: 0.6485 Low Jun 1
• SUP 3: 0.6458 Low May 31 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 ‘22 - Feb 2 bull leg

AUDUSD traded lower Tuesday and is again weaker today. A bearish theme remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The pair has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMA, reinforcing bearish conditions. Today’s move lower has resulted in a break of support at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low. Attention is on 0.6562, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6739, the Jul 31 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Is Through Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3462 High Jun 5
• RES 3: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3318 76.4% Retracement July Downleg
• PRICE: 1.3305 @ 08:14 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 1.3221 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3151/3093 Low Jul 31 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing

USDCAD short-term conditions have improved for bulls. The pair is trading higher today and this has resulted in a break of resistance at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 1.3282. The move higher signals scope for a climb towards the next key resistance at 1.3387, the Jul 7 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 3: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 134.88 High Jul 19
• RES 1: 133.30/134.01 50-day EMA / High Jul 24
• PRICE: 132.33 @ 05:20 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 131.81 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 131.61 76.4% retracement of the Jul 10 - 19 rally
• SUP 3: 130.99 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 130.60 Low Jul 10 and a key support

Bund futures remain vulnerable and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this condition. Price has recently breached 132.23, 61.8% of the Jul 10 - 19 rally. This undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 131.61, the 76.4% retracement. Further out, key support is at 130.60, the Jul 10 low. Initial firm resistance is at 134.01, the Jul 24 high. A break of this level would be a bullish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 116.990 High Jun 12 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.200 High Jul 24 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 115.630 @ 05:30 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 115.333/320 61.8% of the Jul 6 - 19 rally / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 115.230 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 115.034 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 19 rally
• SUP 4: 114.730 Low Jul 12

Bobl futures on Jul 28, traded through support at 115.540, the Jul 21 / 26 low, before recovering. The break lower undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights a bearish threat. This has exposed 115.333, a Fibonacci retracement point and the next important support. It has been pierced and a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key near-term resistance is unchanged at 116.200, the Jul 24 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 105.388 100-dma (cont)
• RES 3: 105.223 50% retracement June-July downleg
• RES 2: 105.185 High Jul 19 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 105.090 High Jul 24 / 27 / 28
• PRICE: 105.010 @ 05:33 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 104.805 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support

Schatz futures remain in consolidation mode. The short-term uptrend remains intact, for now, with immediate support at 104.805, the Jul 17 low, still intact. A resumption of gains and a breach of 105.185, the Jul 19 high, would highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and open 105.223 and 105.376, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, a break of 104.805 would instead expose key support and the bear trigger at 104.570, the Jul 6 low.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 97.91 38.2% retracement of the Mar - Jul downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 97.84 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 96.19/81 High Jul 31 / 27
• PRICE: 95.12 @ Close Aug 1
• SUP 1: 94.87 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 94.58 Low Jul 17 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 94.20 Low Jul 13
• SUP 4: 93.45 76.4% retracement of the Jul 7 - 19 rally

Gilt futures traded lower last week and in the process breached support at 96.11, the Jul 21 low. This highlights a bearish threat and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this condition. Note that the 20-day EMA has also been breached - a bearish development. This opens 94.58, the Jul 17 low. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 97.84, the Jul 19 high. A break would resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance is at 96.19, the Jul 31 high.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• PRICE: 115.23 @ Close Aug 1
• SUP 1: 115.09 Low Jul 14 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 114.26 Low Jul 13
• SUP 3: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 112.48 Low May 29

BTP futures continue to trade below 117.48, the Jul 19 high. Short-term bullish conditions are intact - for now - and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key hurdle at 117.60, the Jun 26 high. Initial firm support to watch is 115.09, the Jul 14 low. Clearance of this support would instead highlight a possible reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Reversal Lower Exposes Support

• RES 4: 4546.00 1.00 proj of the Jul 7 - 13 - 26 price swing
• RES 3: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 2: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 1: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4399.00 @ 06:30 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 4371.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4331.00 Low Jul 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 4282.00 Low Jul 11
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and a reversal trigger

Eurostoxx 50 futures have found resistance at 4513.00, Monday’s high, and the contract has traded sharply lower. For now, the pullback is considered corrective. However, the move lower has exposed support at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 4371.40 and a clear break, if seen, would threaten recent bullish developments and expose 4331.00, the Jul 26 low and a key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4513.00.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4726.52 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4670.25 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - 20 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4654.42 Bull channel top
• RES 1: 4634.50 High Jul 27
• PRICE: 4579.50 @ 06:51 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: 4547.38 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4470.00 Low Jul 12
• SUP 3: 4445.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4407.83 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low

The E-mini S&P contract continues to trade below 4634.50, the Jul 27 high. The pullback from this level highlights a possible short-term bearish signal. Price has found resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 13 low - the channel top is at 4654.42 today. An extension lower would expose the 20-day EMA - at 4547.38 and a break of it would strengthen bearish conditions. Clearance of the channel top is required to resume the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Northbound

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $86.18 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $85.75 @ 06:59 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $81.06/78.10 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 2: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: $72.04 - Low Jun 28
• SUP 4: $71.21 - Low My 31

Brent futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. $84.79, the Apr 12 high and a key resistance, has been cleared This strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards $86.18, the Jan 23 high. On the downside, the first key support to watch lies at $81.06, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition is overbought, a short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Continues To Appreciate

• RES 4: $87.43 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 3: $85.94 - High Aug 23 2022
• RES 2: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $83.59 - High Nov 7 2022
• PRICE: $82.23 @ 07:05 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $77.09/73.78 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $69.82/66.98 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.22 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to appreciate. The break above $77.15 last week, the Jul 13 high, confirmed a resumption of the current bull cycle and this has resulted in a breach of key resistance at $81.44, the high on Apr 12 / 13. This development strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $83.59, the Jul 11 2022 high. Initial key short-term support lies at $73.78, the Jul 17 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $2004.2 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 1: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1948.4 @ 07:20 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $1941.3 - Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: $1924.5 - Low Jul 11
• SUP 3: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Gold traded sharply lower last Thursday and a bearish threat remains present. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces this warning. The move down has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at $1951.7. A continuation lower would expose support at $1924.5, the Jul 11 low. Clearance of this level would open the key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. Key resistance is at $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
• RES 1: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• PRICE: $24.293 @ 08:18 BST Aug 2
• SUP 1: $24.044 - Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: $23.966 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.109 - Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: $22.527 - Low Jul 6

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and recent weakness is considered corrective. However, support at $23.966 the 50-day EMA, appears exposed following the sell-off on Jul 27. A clear break of the average would undermine a bullish outlook. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 23, and open $26.135, the May 5 high.