MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Bulls Remain in Control
Price Signal Summary – Gold Bulls Remain in Driver’s Seat
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs, reinforce this theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup and this highlights a dominant uptrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme.
- GBPUSD is in consolidation mode. The recent move higher resulted in a climb above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high, confirming a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Recent gains in USDJPY appear to have been a correction and Friday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down also highlights a likely resumption of the downtrend. An uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair traded to a fresh cycle high Monday, reinforcing the current trend set-up. Key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high, has recently been cleared.
- Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the yellow metal is trading just below its recent all-time high. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures have reversed a large part of their recent gains. This affirms the strength of resistance at the 50-day EMA of $71.77, which remains the key upside hurdle for bulls. The latest sell-off also highlights the fact that the recovery since Sep 9 is likely a correction.
- Bund futures are unchanged and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The move down between Sep 11 - 20, is considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would highlight an extension of this corrective phase and open the 50-day EMA, at 133.83. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. With the contract trading closer to its recent lows, sights are on the next key support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish theme and open 98.00.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.1409 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1342 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 1: 1.1214/34 High Sep 25 / 1.618 proj Jun 26-Jul 17-Aug 1 swing
- PRICE: 1.1141 @ 06:01 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 1.1116/1044 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 3: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
The short-term outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and despite yesterday’s move lower, the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. 1.1202, Aug 26 high and a bull trigger, was pierced last week. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a move towards 1.1234, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1276, the Jul 18 '23 high. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1116, it has been pierced but remains intact.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.3629 2.236 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3527 2.00 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 1.3434 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 1.3378 @ 06:11 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 1.3313/3250 Low Sep 25 and 26 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3088 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 4: 1.2890 Low Aug 19
GBPUSD is in consolidation mode. The recent move higher resulted in a climb above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high, confirming a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. The pair is trading just below its recent highs and note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, reflecting a clear uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards the 1.3500 handle next. Initial firm support is 1.3250, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8432/64 50-day EMA / High Sep 11
- RES 2: 0.8400 Low Aug 30
- RES 1: 0.8390 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8325 @ 06:22 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bearish and recent weakness reinforces this theme. The cross has breached 0.8400, the Aug 30 low, confirming a resumption of the bear cycle. Furthermore, 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and a key support, has been cleared, strengthening the downtrend. Note that MA studies remain in a bear-mode condition too. Sights are on 0.8311 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 0.8390, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 148.05 High Sep 19
- RES 2: 147.21 High Sep 3
- RES 1: 146.29 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 144.38 @ 06:31 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 141.65/139.58 Low Sep 30 / 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 139.00 1.382 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.30 1.50 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 2023
Recent gains in USDJPY appear to have been a correction and Friday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down also highlights a likely resumption of the downtrend. An extension lower would open 139.58, the Sep 16 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 139.00, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 146.29, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 161.51/163.49 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
- PRICE: 160.72 @ 06:50 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact and Friday’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme. It also signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would open 155.15, the Sep 16 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 low and a bear trigger. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 163.49, the Sep 27 high, and 163.89, the Aug 15 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6977 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.6942 High Sep 30
- PRICE: 0.6929 @ 07:24 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 0.6868/6800 Low Sep 27/ 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6735 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
An uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair traded to a fresh cycle high Monday, reinforcing the current trend set-up. Key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high, has recently been cleared. The break confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 5. Sights are on 0.6984 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 0.6800, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
USDCAD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 3: 1.3647 High Sep 19 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3593 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3541 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3516 @ 07:27 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD remains in a clear downtrend and the strong Sep 24 sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has traded through support at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low. This breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5. The move down paves the way for an extension towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3541, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 136.37 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 135.66 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.19/135.49 High Sep 27 / 11
- PRICE: 134.96 @ 05:42 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 134.31/83 Low Sep 27 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
Bund futures are unchanged and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The move down between Sep 11 - 20, is considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would highlight an extension of this corrective phase and open the 50-day EMA, at 133.83. Clearance of this average would undermine a bullish theme. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Resistance Is Intact
- RES 4: 120.905 1.50 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 120.722 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.496 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.230 High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.050 @ 05:36 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 119.674/340 20-day EMA / Low Sep 20
- SUP 2: 119.210 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 rally
- SUP 3: 119.030 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and key support
The trend condition in Bobl futures remains bullish however, a short-term corrective cycle is potentially still in play, for now. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 119.210, a Fibonacci retracement. The contract has recovered from its latest lows. The key resistance and bull trigger is at 120.230, the Sep 11 high. A break would resume the uptrend.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 107.600 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 107.300 0.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 107.220 High Sep 30
- PRICE: 107.145 @ 05:59 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 106.972 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.815 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 105.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback has been a correction. The move higher on Sep 24 resulted in a print above 107.155, the Sep 11 high and a key resistance. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend and a continuation higher would open 107.300, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 106.972, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a corrective retracement.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 102.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 101.78 1.00 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 101.06/101.54 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 99.40/100.39 20-day EMA / High Sep 19
- PRICE: 98.43 @ Close Sep 30
- SUP 1: 98.30 Low Sep 30
- SUP 2: 98.11 Low Sep 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: 98.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 97.30 1.236 Fibonacci retracement proj of the Sep 2 - 17 rally
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. With the contract trading closer to its recent lows, sights are on the next key support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish theme and open 98.00. On the upside, key near-term resistance is seen at 99.40, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to instead highlight a possible reversal.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.22 3.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.90 High Sep 27
- PRICE: 121.47 @ Close Sep 30
- SUP 1: 120.58/17 20-day EMA / Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.32 Low Sep 9
- SUP 3: 118.85 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.16 Low Sep 2 and key support
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforces this condition. The contract has traded through 121.59, the Sep 17 high, confirming a resumption of the trend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 122.22 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 120.58, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle In Play
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5106.00 High Sep 30
- PRICE: 5041.00 @ 06:10 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 4917.56 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848.00/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. Scope is seen for a continuation of the trend with sights on 5138.24, a Fibonacci projection, and the 5200 handle further out. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 4917.56, the 50-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5871.77 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: 5830.00 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 5786.00 @ 14:46 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 5709.39 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5641.58 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs, reinforce this theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup and this highlights a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. On the downside, initial support to watch is 5709.39, the 20-day EMA. Key support lies at 5641.58, the Sep 27 low.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $81.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 3: $79.68 - High Aug 26
- RES 2: $76.92 - 50.0% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.21 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $71.82 @ 06:54 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: $70.25/68.29 - Low Sep 26 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.52 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
A bearish condition in Brent futures remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces this theme. A key resistance at $75.21, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A continuation lower would expose support at $68.29, the Sep 10 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would open $67.73, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a potential stronger reversal.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $77.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 2: $76.40 - High Aug 26
- RES 1: $71.77/72.40 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 24
- PRICE: $68.23 @ 07:10 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: $66.95/64.61 - Low Sep 26 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $57.07 - 2.2368 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures have reversed a large part of their recent gains. This affirms the strength of resistance at the 50-day EMA of $71.77, which remains the key upside hurdle for bulls. The latest sell-off also highlights the fact that the recovery since Sep 9 is likely a correction. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would refocus attention on $64.61, the Sep 10 low and ear trigger.
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2697.9 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $2643.1 @ 07:08 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: $2622.7 - Low Sep 24
- SUP 2: $2589.8 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2547.0 - Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: $2520.1 - 50-day EMA
Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the yellow metal is trading just below its recent all-time high. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2690.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2589.8, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For Gains
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.715 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $31.437 @ 07:54 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: $30.518/29.752 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $28.535 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and last week’s climb reinforces this set-up. The metal has traded through resistance at $31.754, the Jul 11 high. Note too that price has pierced $32.518, the May 20 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and open $33.297, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $29.752, the 50-day EMA.