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MNI NBP Preview - Oct 2024: Rate-Cut Debate Could Start March


Executive Summary:

  • The NBP will keep interest rates unchanged this week.
  • Inflation has accelerated and may stay around +5% Y/Y into the year-end.
  • A growing number of MPC members flag a possible rate-cut debate in March.

Full preview including a summary of sell-side views here:

MNI NBP Preview - October 2024.pdf

There is unanimous consensus that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will sit on its hands this week, as the latest flare-up in CPI inflation discourages policymakers from launching a rate-cutting cycle. The reduction of energy subsidies over the summer coupled with unfavourable base effects mean that inflation may oscillate close to +5.0% Y/Y around the turn of the year, before subsiding over the subsequent quarters. While communications from a growing number of central bankers have turned more dovish, they suggest that the window for a serious debate on cutting rates will only open in March 2025.

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